(36 year cycle)

The present Saturn/Neptune cycle started in March 1989 and reached its Quarter stage  (+90 degrees) in June 1998. The Halfway stage occurred in August 2006 and the Three quarter stage ( +270 degrees) in November 2015. The next cycle will commence in 2026.

What might the cycle mean ?

We have given the generic meaning of this cycle as ‘The Implementation or restriction of collective ideals’ – in other words ‘converting ideals into practice’ or ‘preventing ideals from becoming reality’. Whereas the Neptune/Pluto cycle signifies how collective idealism in the form of religion, philosophy and long term societal goals becomes completely transformed and whereas the Uranus/Neptune cycle signifies how innovative intellectual, technological or aesthetic ideas get taken up as ideals, the Saturn/Neptune cycle deals with how ideals which have been created, written about, voiced, discussed or debated start getting actually adopted or put into practice – or are prevented from that happening.

In the Saturn/Uranus cycle we looked at how a new mindset sweeps away the Status Quo, in this cycle we look at how ideals become the Status Quo. Here we shall be looking at the conjunction for clear indications that new societal ideals make their first start to becoming accepted as the norm. Throughout history this conjunction would not so much coincide therefore with the beginning of restructuring, overthrow and later dissolution of the established order but with the early manifestation, the struggle to get adopted and the widespread acceptance of new ideals or ideologies.

PRECISE SYNCHRONICITY WITH RISE AND FALL OF COMMUNISM

In this chapter we shall demonstrate the precise synchronicity between the Saturn/Neptune cycle  and the birth, growth difficulties, peak of influence, terminal crisis and death of Communism as a global ideology. At the 1846 Saturn/Neptune conjunction the Communist Manifesto was published. At the 1989 Saturn/Neptune conjunction the Berlin Wall fell and the USSR crumbled. Sceptics may be justified in seeing this as a coincidence. But as we shall see when the 1882 and 1917 conjunctions, which came in between those start and end dates, fit the pattern, the cycle begins to gain considerable credibility. Historians need to check out this extraordinary 143 year long match between communism and this cycle.

See separate webpage titled ‘Communism’.

http://cyclesofhistory.com/communism

THE START OF A NEW CYCLE

CONJUNCTION Feb 1988 to Dec 1990 (exact in March, June & Nov 1989)

The 1989 Saturn/Neptune Conjunction, allowing for a 10 degree orb, extends from February 1988 to December 1990. It coincides with two major implementations or activations of collective ideals on a world scale.

 COLLAPSE OF SOVIET UNION

Firstly, the eruption of democracy that leads to the collapse of the Soviet Union, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War. It will of course be immediately evident that another cycle conjunction – that of Saturn/Uranus in 1988 – also coincides with the collapse of the Soviet Union and is covered on that cycle’s webpage. We are talking of a Triple outer planet conjunction. If you are interested in the precise month by month detail of the collapse you need to look at the Jupiter/Saturn cycle and the Jupiter/Neptune cycle as the collapse also coincided with both their halfway stages.

A TRIPLE CONJUNCTION – A THRESHOLD OF TRULY LONGTERM SIGNIFICANCE

It has been stressed in the Introduction that when two outer planetary conjunctions coincide the double combination of whatever is being finished and whatever is starting is so powerful that it seems to synchronise with developments of major world significance. When three outer planets – Saturn, Uranus and Neptune are being opposed by  a fourth -Jupiter – something of truly longterm historical importance seems highly likely to happen.

But we need to separate out the effect of the two cycles. The Saturn/Uranus cycle shows how a totally new mindset (ideas rather than ideals) sweeps away the established order – in particular socioeconomic structures and institutions.  The Saturn/Neptune cycle is concerned with the rise and fall of ideals and ideologies like democracy or socialism.  Although in the case of the collapse of Soviet Communism in 1989 the failure of communism as an ideology and the overthrow of the economic and social system of the Soviet Union seem like one and the same thing,  at other points in history the chronologies of institutions and ideologies can be quite separate – the history of Christianity is one obvious example.

 SOUTH AFRICA – ABOLITION OF APARTHEID

The second major implementation of collective ideals on a world scale is the abolition of apartheid. 1988 sees simultaneous elections to black and white councils in South Africa for the first time, 1989 sees the  South African Law Commission call for the abolition of apartheid and in February 1990 after 30 years the central legislation of apartheid – the Separate Amenities Act – is abolished. And Yes, this development, like the fall of Soviet Communism, does equally correlate with the Saturn/Uranus conjunction – apartheid as an ideology and the South African political system both fell – though the apartheid key events lie closer to the exact 1989 Saturn/Neptune conjunction than the exact 1988 Saturn/Uranus conjunction.

IDEALISTIC PRESSURES BUILDING FOR DECADES NOW RELEASED

Both the forces of social democracy in Eastern Europe and the pressures against apartheid in South Africa are rooted in a long struggle for human rights. The pressure of new ideals had been building for decades in both regions but it was here in 1989 that they both started to get implemented.

However this is not to suggest that at a Saturn/Neptune conjunction all emergent collective ideals will begin to get implemented. Other ideals will simply become activated – they will manifest in speeches, articles, books, demonstrations and will attract new and minority support, but their implementation will come later in the cycle or indeed in a subsequent Saturn/Neptune cycle. Nor, as we all know only too well, does it follow that the implementation of ideals will be necessarily true to what the ideals stand for. All ideals go through a cycle of acceptance and implementation as they encounter the dead hand of the established order or the cold touch of reality. Several examples at the time of the 1989 cycle conjunction will bear this out.

 CHINA

A MOVE TO OPENNESS & TOLERANCE ?

The first example comes in China with the upsurge of democratic protest leading to the Tiananmen square massacre. Just after the Saturn/Neptune conjunction comes into orb in February 1988, the 7th National People’s Congress is held – the conference is marked by a new openness and tolerance of debate and dissent. Meetings and panel discussions are broadcast the same day and Chinese and foreign journalists are permitted to attend the panel discussions. Dissenting statements are widely publicized in the Chinese press. A spirit of reform rules. The State Council gets restructured and streamlined and many ministries are converted into business enterprises. But as before in China’s modern history moves to openness and tolerance are not always what they seem

FALUN GONG SECT

At this very time the Falun Dada, a meditation & exercise sect of Buddhist origin, changes to become the more popularly accessible Falun Gong. This insignificant event is destined to later cause a major upheaval in Chinese society. By 2000 it will have grown to attract as many as 20 million new followers and have been ordered by the government to be suppressed as an “evil cult.” It will be interesting to see what happens to this cult at later stages of this cycle.

TIBET – WORST VIOLENCE IN 30 YEARS

At the same time on the edge of Chinese territory in March 1988 riots take place in Lhasa, the capital of Xizang Autonomous Region (Tibet). Calls for “independence for Tibet” and expressions of support for the exiled spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, are made. Although Chinese authorities condemn the riots, their initial response is moderate. However when the rioting spreads to neighbouring Qinghai Province, where there is a sizeable Tibetan minority, the authorities resort to tougher measures –  such as military force and numerous arrests – in what develops in 1989 into the worst violence in Tibet in 30 years.

TIANANMEN SQUARE MASSACRE

On April 18 thousands of Chinese students demanding democracy try to storm Communist Party headquarters in Beijing. A few days later tens of thousands of people crowd into the capital’s Tiananmen Square supporting the students who are waving barriers demanding greater political freedom. On April 27 150,000 students and workers calling for democracy march, cheer and sing as they take over the square. On May 13 some 2,000 students begin a hunger strike. On May 17 more than a million people swarm into central Beijing to express support for the fasting students. On May 20 the government declares martial law in Beijing. By May 23, as some military leaders vow to refrain from any move to suppress the student protest, hundreds of thousands across China march demanding the resignation of premier Li Peng. Then on June 3, only weeks before the 2nd exact Saturn/Neptune conjunction, Chinese troops storm Beijing and crush the pro democracy movement – firing into the crowd in Tiananmen Square they kill hundreds of people. In a never to be forgotten image a lone man stands defiantly in front of a line of tanks until friends pull him out of the way. A week later large scale arrests take place and eight people are sentenced to death.

EXACT CORRELATION OF THE START AND END OF THE CRISIS

On January 10 1990 Chinese Premier Li Peng lifts Beijing’s 7-month-old martial law – stating that by crushing pro-democracy protests the army had saved China from “the abyss of misery.” In May 1990 the government releases 211 of the arrested protestors. Please note the exact correlation of the crisis with this cycle – after this date there are virtually no reports of further unrest in China and by December 1990 the cycle conjunction has gone out of orb

The nascent democracy and human rights movement in China is an example of collective ideals getting activated but not implemented – the student demonstrations are ruthlessly crushed. If the movement is to correlate with this cycle we should expect something significant to happen to it at the Quarter stage in 1999 and for that to maximise at the time of the Halfway point in 2009/2011. Given the nature of the events at the Conjunction these developments are likely to be restrictive. Indeed it appears likely to take the following Saturn/Neptune cycle starting in 2026 for democracy to make any significant advance in this huge and economically dominant country.

 ISRAEL/PALESTINE

NEW DRIVE FOR PALESTINIAN STATE AS HAMAS FOUNDED

The cycle conjunction closely matches the beginning of a new drive to achieve the ideal of an independent Palestinian state. This happens on different levels. First, on the streets of the West Bank and Gaza protestors clash fiercely with Israeli forces. Second, the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) declares a Palestinian state – in time abandoning the call for the destruction of Israel and apparently renouncing terrorism. Yet, third, at the very same time the Hamas Islamic Brotherhood is founded which at this time clearly advocates the destruction of Israel. We would expect this mix of activation of ideals at the conjunction to be seriously challenged but  to advance at the Quarter stage in 1999 and to maximise at the Halfway stage in 2009/2010.

FIRST INTIFADA

The First Intifada, the original Palestinian uprising against the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian Territories, begins in the Jabalya refugee camp on 8 December 1987, a few weeks before the Saturn/Neptune conjunction comes into orb. It quickly spreads throughout Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem. The action primarily takes the form of nonviolent civil disobedience though there are also general strikes, boycotts of Israeli products and refusals to pay taxes. However it is the Palestinian demonstrations that include stone-throwing by youths against the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) that come to define the Intifada in the media.

VIOLENCE BETWEEN PALESTINIANS

Violence between Palestinians is a prominent feature of the Intifada, with widespread executions of alleged Israeli collaborators. While Israeli forces kill some 1,100 Palestinians and Palestinians kill 164 Israelis, Palestinians kill an estimated 1,000 other Palestinians as alleged collaborators. Will inter-Palestinian violence surge at later stages of this cycle ?

In August 1988 Hamas publishes a manifesto calling for a holy war to create an Islamic state from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea, including Israel. It challenges the PLO’s claim as the sole representative of the Palestinian people. The Hamas charter declares that all Palestine is Islamic trust land, can never be surrendered to non-Muslims and  is an integral part of the Muslim world. Will Hamas play a key role at the Quarter stage around 1998 and the cycle Halfway stage around 2006 ? On 12 November 1988, the day before the cycle conjunction again comes exact the Palestinian National Council, the legislative body of the PLO meets and proclaims an independent Palestinian state – which is immediately recognised by Egypt and China.

PLO NO LONGER CALLING FOR DESTRUCTION OF ISRAEL

In December 1988 after Yasser Arafat says he is renouncing all forms of terrorism,  US President Reagan authorises the US to enter into “substantive dialogue” with the PLO. On 3 May 1989 Yasser Arafat announces  that the PLO charter calling for the destruction of Israel has been “superseded” by a declaration urging peaceful coexistence of the Jewish state and a Palestinian state. In September 1989 Israel, following dozens of attacks on Israelis, outlaws Hamas as a terrorist organization. Before the cycle conjunction goes out of orb in December 1990 violence between Israel and Palestinians surges especially on October 8 when  Israeli police open fire on rioting Palestinians on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem, killing 17 – swiftly followed by a Palestinian retaliatory attack.

QUARTER STAGE April 1998 to July 1999 (exact in June & Nov 1998 and April 1999 )

Can we find in the relevant events and developments of the second half of 1998 and early 1999 serious challenges but significant advances to the developments we have cited above? Allowing an orb of approximately 10 degrees the period will extend from April 1998 to June 1999 and from end Nov 1999 to April 2000.

Firstly did the eruption of democratic ideals in 1988 that activated the collapse of Communism, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War encounter in 1998-99 a serious challenge which it subsequently shows signs of overcoming? Yes, the serious challenge to a democratic post communist Europe comes from an explosion of organised crime in Russia alongside brutal violence between Russia and Chechnya. The challenge does not simply focus on domestic Russian crime nor simply on Chechen separatism, but extends to a sweeping wave of Russian originated international crime together with the fact that Islamic fundamentalism becomes a key conflict factor in the Caucasus region generally.

 SOVIET UNION – ORGANISED CRIME & CORRUPTION

RUSSIA THE BIGGEST MAFIA STATE IN THE WORLD

In 1994 the following public announcement was made “Russia is the biggest mafia state in the world, the super power of crime that is devouring the state from top to bottom.” Astonishingly it was made by the then Russian President Boris Yeltsin. In 1996 the slaying of Oklahoma hotel executive Paul Tatum in a Moscow subway station extended the field of gangland shooting to international, especially American, business, which thereafter found it necessary to hire private security guards to protect its executives from extortion threats and roving assassins. Shootings rose close to a staggering 600 contract slayings a year !

50% OF RUSSIA’S ECONOMY CONNECTED TO ORGANISED CRIME

In 1997 Russian Academy analysts reported that during privatization 55 percent of the capital and 80 percent of the voting shares of Russian businesses had been transferred into the hands of domestic and foreign criminals. In short 50% of the nation’s economy was in some way connected to organised crime – including 40% of Russia’s private businesses, 60% of state enterprises and 50% to 85% of banks. The hold of organised crime over the Russian nation can be gauged by the following statement in 1996 from the Chairman of the US Foreign Relations Committee : “It is truly impossible in many instances to differentiate between Russian organized crime and the Russian state”

ECONOMY’S DRAMATIC COLLAPSE – INFLATION REACHES 40%

As 1997 turned into 1998 on the grounds of potential or actual corruption President Yeltsin fires billionaire Boris Berezovsky from his position as deputy secretary of the Security Council along with privatization chief Maxim Boiko and Federal Bankruptcy Commission chief Pyotr Mostovoi. At the end of March 1998 as the cycle Quarter stage begins Yeltsin fires prime minister Viktor Chernomyrdin for similar reasons and along with him his entire cabinet. At the same time the Russian economy goes into dramatic collapse.

The first warning comes in May 1998 when Russia triples its interest rates to 150% to stave off a run on the rouble and to establish some economic stability. In June the Russian stock market suffers dramatic falls. In July the IMF announces a $17.1 billion rescue package for Russia. In August Russia devalues its currency allowing the rouble’s value to drop by over a third. In September as news of the worst harvest for 45 years comes through, inflation reaches 40%. Autumn sees credit deals with the IMF, the US and Japan but by June 1999, as it defaults on a $900 million interest payment, the IMF is obliged to approve a further $4.5 billion financial package.

BELIEF IN A FREE MARKET ECONOMY HIT BY DISILLUSION

The April 1998 to September 1999 period, while the outgoing square is in orb, is close to representing Russia’s financial and economic low point, but the Saturn/Neptune cycle is not about economic boom and bust but about a challenge to idealism – by now the Russian people’s belief that a free market economy would deliver what years of state communism had not, had become totally and completely discredited. Disillusion had truly set in. As the US Speaker’s Advisory Group on Russia is to report (in early 2000) “in Russia there is ‘a growing popular perception that democratic political and market economic systems are merely code words for rapacious criminality.”

While 1998 sees the Russian State Tax service admit that 60% of the entire cash turnover in the Russian economy takes place in transactions hidden from the government, the main fallout of organised crime is not tax evasion but money laundering. In August  1999 the New York Times reports that as much as $10 billion dollars has been laundered from Russia through the Bank of New York with the knowledge and approval of several bank employees.

CREDIBILITY OF WESTERN INSTITUTIONS COMPROMISED

It is clear that in the period April 1998 to September 1999 it is not just the Russian people’s belief in the market economy that is challenged but the credibility and democratic legal principles of Western financial institutions. Furthermore if the critical privatization process which had put so much economic power into criminal hands had been carried out with direct assistance and guidance from the US government, there were at least grave misgivings as to the advice if not the actions of those American officials who had been directly involved.

EX KGB VLADIMIR PUTIN APPOINTED PRESIDENT

But if the cycle Quarter stage correlates with these severe challenges is there any sign that by the end of 1999 these challenges are recognised and that steps are being taken to overcome them ? Yes, we shall see this in the election and actions of President Vladimir Putin. For in August 1999 President Yeltsin, having survived impeachment proceedings,  dismisses his entire Cabinet and appoints Vladimir Putin as its second post-Communist president.

Putin’s background as a KGB Lieutenant Colonel and head of the Federal Security Service (FSB), the KGB’s principal  successor agency, along with his declared intention of getting tough on organised crime, enhances his popularity and the acceptance by most powerful interest groups in Russia that he really does mean business.  By the time of the cycle Halfway stage in 2006 – 2008 will faith in some version of a state run economy be restored ? But could the medicine prove as unpleasant as the illness ?

 SOUTH AFRICA – TRUTH & RECONCILIATION

What happens to South Africa and apartheid as the cycle Quarter stage comes into orb ? In July 1998 the Truth and Reconciliation Commission closes down after two years of hearings. The following month former President Botha is convicted, fined and given a suspended jail sentence for having ignored a subpoena to testify about apartheid atrocities in front of the Commission. In October 1998 the Commission’s 3,500 page report, based on years of testimony from the people who ran the 1960-1994 white-government and their victims, condemns both apartheid and the violence committed by the African National Congress. This was a significant challenge for Nelson Mandela’s government but the report’s impact appears to work out in keeping with the declared aims of the new government.

However in January 1999 democracy comes under attack. The leader of the United Democratic Movement party is shot and killed in Richmond. Later gunmen in the same town kill 11 people who backed the African National Congress (ANC) while in Cape Town a bomb explodes at the main police station wounding 11 people. It is the 3rd bombing in five months. Although in May the ruling ANC signs a peace pact with its arch-rival Inkatha Freedom Party,  by August economic problems result in a one-day strike with thousands of state workers choosing to stay home from work and some 10,000 communications workers demonstrating in Pretoria and other cities. An estimated 100,000 workers join protest marches across the country calling for wage increases. Despite these problems Nelson Mandela manages to retire as president and pass control to his deputy Thabo Mbeki without any violence.

 CHINA

Mid 1988 sees two fresh developments in the emergence of political opposition in China. First, political dissidents set up five new branches of a banned political opposition party and second, people begin to post anti-government remarks on computer networks – signs that in China democratic ideals are attracting allegiance. However as the cycle Quarter stage comes into orb, the democratic human rights movement‘s progress begins to get side-lined by the attention focused on Falun Gong, the meditation and exercise movement whose estimated adherents now number around 20 million though some estimates are as high as 60 million. In April 1998 some 10,000 people protest in Beijing on behalf of the right to practice the discipline of Falun Dafa; In July, the government begins arresting members of the Falun Gong along with some 1,200 government officials accused of associating with it and announces a ban on the spiritual movement. In December 1998 four alleged ringleaders of the Falun Gong are convicted and sentenced to lengthy prison sentences. The size and fate of the spiritual movement manages to distract attention away from the broader issues of democracy.

ISRAEL/PALESTINE

WYE RIVER MEMORANDUM

Diplomatic and political developments in Palestine as the cycle Quarter stage comes into orb in 1998 appear promising. The Wye River Plantation talks in October 1998 result in an agreement for Israel to redeploy troops and release political prisoners. On the Palestinian side there is a renewed commitment to correct its violations of the Oslo accords including excessive police force, illegal arms and incitement to opposition in public media and education. The Wye River Memorandum signed on October 23 1998 is an agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Authority to implement the earlier Interim Agreement of September 1995. Note that the agreement is signed one week before the 2nd exact cycle Quarter date November 1st. Note also that the agreement is not an understanding but a commitment to implement – exactly what the Saturn/Neptune cycle is about.

In May 1999 while Yasser Arafat, the Palestine leader, wins EU backing for a state within a year and the support of President Clinton for self-determination, Israel elects Labor party leader Ehud Barak as Prime Minister in a landslide victory based on rapid progress toward peace.

WEST BANK LAND CEDED TO PALESTINIANS

However on 2 June 1999 Palestinian leaders say they will not resume peace talks unless settlement expansion in the West Bank and Gaza is frozen. Despite this by September after US intervention, Israeli PM Barak and Palestinian Leader Arafat sign a new deal that cedes West Bank land to the Palestinians and sets up a timetable for peace. Israel releases 199 Palestinians from prison and transfers 7% of the West Bank to Palestinian control. It almost looks as if a breakthrough is happening.  However on the eve of the final Israeli-Palestine peace accord in Netanya, Israel, three pipe bombs explode and 33 people are wounded while in Ramallah, Israeli security forces fire tear gas and rubber-coated metal bullets at stone-throwing Palestinians demanding the release of further Palestinian prisoners. The promise of peace rapidly fades.

HALFWAY STAGE June 2006 to July 2008 (exact in Aug 2006 and Feb & June 2007)

The cycle opposition stays in orb from 25 June 2006 to 3 September 2007 and from 22 March 2008 to 25 June 2008. What developments in this period might we expect if the issues activated by ideals in 1988 such as democracy in Eastern Europe and racial equality in South Africa, human rights in China and territorial rights in Palestine reach a point of maximum fruition but where inherent contradictions appear ?

 SOVIET UNION – ORGANISED CRIME

During this period not just crime but violent crime in Russia and by Russians elsewhere surges though at this very time there are signs that the Russian government under Vladimir Putin is finally starting to get a grip on corruption. Let us look at the fight against corruption first.

FIGHT AGAINST CORRUPTION, JUDICIAL REFORM ?

In mid May 2006 Russian authorities are reported to have fired a string of high-ranking security and law enforcement officials in a shake up described as part of a Kremlin push to fight graft and cement control of key government agencies. On August 1 2006 a Moscow judge declares the giant Yukos oil company bankrupt. Valued in 2004 at some $30 billion it had been almost certainly fraudulently privatised for just $110 million and like other oligarchic run groups had frequently been accused of links to criminal organisations. Under Vladimir Putin’s leadership the federal judiciary has been reformed but there are still plenty of allegations that senior government officials are able to take the law into their own hands.

One of the most controversial allegations is the criminal prosecution of the richest Russian, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the president of Yukos, for fraud and tax evasion. Many analysts see this as retribution for Khodorkovsky’s funding of political opponents of the Kremlin, liberal and communist. But other argue that he had actually been engaged in corrupting sections of the Duma (Russian parliament) to block changes in the tax code aimed at taxing windfall profits and closing offshore tax evasion methods.  As far as the Russian public are concerned oligarchs like Khodorkovsky are seen as thieves who have unjustly enriched themselves and robbed the country of its natural wealth.

The Yukos affair has been described as a turning point in Russia’s commitment to the rule of law in business and perhaps as a return to state capitalism or a non communist version of it. Putin is largely credited with good economic management – Russia’s GDP increases six fold during his presidency – fiscal reforms and a high oil price ensuring high capital inflows. He is also credited with increasing national salaries and substantially reducing poverty.

BUREAUCRATIC OLIGARCHY WITH TRAITS OF DICTATORSHIP

If that is the positive side of the cycle Halfway stage for Russia it is more than outweighed by the negative. The severest critics concentrate on the unacceptable face of strong armed government. In July 2007, Bret Stephens of The Wall Street Journal writes: “Russia has become, in the precise sense of the word, a fascist state. It does not matter here, as the Kremlin’s apologists are so fond of pointing out, that Mr. Putin is wildly popular in Russia. Popularity is what competent despots get when they destroy independent media, stoke nationalistic fervor with military build-ups…..”.  In December 2007, the Russian sociologist Igor Eidman categorises Putin’s regime as “the power of bureaucratic oligarchy” which has “the traits of extreme right-wing dictatorship — the dominance of state-monopoly capital in the economy”. On the eve of Putin handing over the Presidential reins to Dmitry Medeyev the Financial Times editorialises: “Mr. Putin will remain Russia’s real ruler for some time to come”

VIOLENT OLIGARCHIC CRIME MAXIMISES

But it is the maximisation of oligarchic crime that can be most seen as matching the meaning of this cycle stage. Indeed it is the worst sort of crime, violent killings, that characterises this period as no other does. On September 13 2006 Andrei Kozlov, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Central Bank, is shot in Moscow along with his driver, by unidentified assailants. Officials suggest the attack was prompted by his efforts to clean up the country’s banking system. On September 30 Enver Ziganshin, chief engineer for Rusia Petroleum, is found shot dead at his country home.

And on October 7 comes the killing that attracts the greatest international outrage. Anna Politkovskaya, a Russian journalist, is shot to death outside her apartment building in Moscow. She is known for her critical coverage of the war in Chechnya and is about to publish a story about torture and abductions in Chechnya. Many suspect the hand of the state in the killing. A year later a lieutenant colonel in the security service and eight others are charged with her murder. Three days later Alexander Plokhin, the head of a branch of a state-controlled bank, is fatally shot in Moscow. Six days after that the business chief of Russian state news agency Itar-Tass is found knifed to death at his flat in central Moscow. Two days after that Dmitry Fotyanov, a mayoral candidate in Dalnegorsk is gunned down as he leaves his campaign headquarters. These all have the appearance of contract killings. Then finally on November 1 comes a killing whose method is so lethal that it is thought only through the direct involvement of Russia’s security agency could such a thing have come about.

LITVINENKO RADIOACTIVE POISONING IN LONDON

Alexander Litvinenko, a former KGB agent, meets a number of people including other ex KGB Russians at a bar in London’s Piccadilly. Falling gravely sick he is diagnosed with radioactive poisoning. Three weeks later he dies from the radioactive element polonium-210. It is alleged he may have been targeted for his outspoken criticism of former colleagues in Moscow. He had accused his country’s secret service agency of ‘staging’ apartment-house bombings in 1999 which killed more than 300 people and sparked the second war in Chechnya”. Before dying Litvinenko blames a “barbaric and ruthless” Russian President Vladimir Putin for being behind his fatal poisoning.

WAS HIS MURDER ORDERED BY RUSSIAN STATE ?

Certainly British counter terrorism investigators get a frosty reception from the Russian security services on their Moscow fact finding visit. A former Russian spy living in the US claims Litvinenko was murdered because of a report he had compiled with damaging personal details on a highly placed member of Putin’s administration. Although an alternative interpretation is later made that Litvinenko had been working for British secret intelligence service MI6, the likelihood that this murder was ordered by a Russian state agency or senior member of the government will not go away. This gets confirmation when the Russian prosecutor-general will not extradite to Britain the suspected killer Andrei Lugovoi, another former KGB member.

PUTIN’S REFORMS OFFSET BY ATTACKS ON HUMAN RIGHTS

During his presidency, Putin passes into law a series of fundamental reforms, including new economic and fiscal measures, new land and legal codes. But at the same time, his conduct in office has been questioned by domestic political opponents, foreign governments, and human rights organizations. He is accused of strong-armed leadership of the country; of instigating the Second Chechen War; of alleged violations of human rights and freedoms; of forcibly silencing his opponents; and of allegedly bullying former Soviet Republics. He has been especially criticized In the West and by Russian liberals for what many observers consider a widespread crackdown on media freedom.

SOUTH AFRICA

VIOLENT CRIME – 18,000 MURDERS IN 2006 !

During this period a number of issues come to a head that question the ideals behind the launch of a post apartheid government in South Africa.  It is true that South Africa is having to cope with a growing AIDS crisis – the previous year it had been established that one in three deaths in South Africa was due to AIDS – in two provinces it was over 40% ! But the central issue  is a major increase in the amount of violent crime – a staggering 18,000 people are murdered in 2006 – and an increase in the number and level of strikes occurs. Finally both the prospective third President and the national police chief face the threat of corruption charges and in a newly multiracial society there is extensive violence against other African immigrants.

ONE OF THE MOST DANGEROUS PLACES IN THE WORLD

But it is the fact that South Africa has become one of the most dangerous places in the world for violent crime that matches the cycle stage most. In October 2006 Nobel peace prize winner, former Cape Town Archbishop Desmond Tutu says South Africa faces a moral crisis in the shape of violent crime “People have turned freedom into licence and forgot that freedom has its obverse – responsibility and obligation”. “The country” the Archbishop adds “is sitting on a powder keg because the gap between rich and poor is widening”.

ZUMA FUTURE PRESIDENT ESCAPES  CORRUPTION CHARGES

In September 2006 a judge dismisses corruption charges against Jacob Zuma after the prosecution says it is not ready to proceed against a powerful, populist politician who could be South Africa’s next president – the decision is reversed on appeal in November. In December 2007 delegates of the governing African National Congress cast their votes for party leader – Jacob Zuma defeats President Mbeki and moves into position to become president in 2009. However at the same time South Africa’s top prosecutor says he has enough evidence to bring corruption charges against Zuma. In October 2007 South African prosecutors obtain an arrest warrant for national police chief and Interpol president Jackie Selebi, on charges of corruption linked to a murder suspect. Ironically a few months earlier former apartheid law and order Minister Adriaan Vlok and his police chief Johannes Van der Merwe were both sentenced to 10 years in prison.

PUBLIC SERVICE STRIKES BRING CITIES  TO STANDSTILL

In May 2007  tens of thousands of nurses, teachers and other public service workers take to the streets to press their demands for a 12 percent pay increase – by June it has been extended into an indefinite strike with police using stun grenades and water cannon on the more hardline hospital pickets in the city of Durham. On June 13 tens of thousands of public sector workers march on government offices across the country, escalating what will prove to be a three week strike and bringing the largest cities to a standstill.

NEUTRAL POLICY ON ZIMBABWE’S MUGABE CRITICISED

Perhaps of greatest world significance, many observers see an ultimate irony in South Africa’s stance on the major crisis in Zimbabwe. In March 2007 South Africa’s neutral policy on Zimbabwe comes in for criticism with Australia calling on premier Thabo Mbeki to pressurise President Robert Mugabe to quit. Many other countries are at least ambivalent about South Africa’s refusal to condemn Robert Mugabe’s harrowing and violent treatment of large sections of Zimbabwe’s population.

ANTI-FOREIGNER VIOLENCE IN A MULTIRACIAL SOCIETY

Lastly, also ironical in a new multiracial society, comes anti – foreigner violence. In January 2008 South African police raid a Johannesburg church late at night where hundreds of Zimbabweans have taken refuge, hauling people in pyjamas to a police station in scenes reminiscent of apartheid-era raids. South Africa’s main transport union thwarts the delivery of a controversial shipment of Chinese arms destined for Zimbabwe, saying its workers will not offload the cargo.

In May 2008 in Johannesburg mobs kill at least six people and injure 50 in anti-foreigner violence. Zimbabweans, accused of taking scarce jobs and housing are the main targets along with Mozambicans – of whom 10,000 flee home to escape the violence. The South African army mobilizes to support embattled police trying to quell the wave of violence that has claimed 60 lives and displaced 16,000 people. On May 24 thousands of people march through Johannesburg, calling for an end to the xenophobic violence.

 CHINA

MEDIA CRACKDOWN AND WIDESPREAD CORRUPTION

In China in mid 2006 there are several cases of media crackdown – arrest and prison await many who post articles on foreign websites. Indeed on 27 June a law imposing fines on media that report emergencies such as riots and natural disasters without official approval is announced. In September 2006 China announces detailed controls on the distribution of news by foreign news agencies, banning all content that violates its own tight restrictions. In December 2006 Chinese courts confirm lengthy prison sentences on writers documenting corruption and forced abortions. Shortly after this a senior party official admits that nearly 100,000 members of the ruling Communist party were punished the previous year for corruption. In June 2007 China’s state media said that some 550 slave labourers have been freed in the past month from brick kilns and other illegal job sites in central China where they were starved, beaten and forced to work 14 hours or more per day. Days later the government is forced into a nationwide crackdown on enslavement and child labour.

TIBET – LARGEST PROTEST AGAINST CHINESE RULE

However in March 2008 there breaks the strongest rights action of all. Protestors in Lhasa, Tibet set shops ablaze in the largest demonstrations in two decades against Chinese rule. Dozens of people die and damage is estimated at 280 million yuan ($41 million). In response Tibet’s government-in-exile demands the UN intervene to end what it described as “urgent human rights violations” by China. The Dalai Lama calls for an international investigation saying Tibet is facing a “cultural genocide”.

In the days that follow demonstrations against Beijing’s crackdown spread from Australia to Europe to the USA. China responds by calling the Dalai Lama a “wolf in monk’s robes” and says it is locked in a “life-and-death battle” with his supporters. China sends additional troops in and makes more arrests even as the Dalai Lama offers face-to-face negotiations with Chinese leaders. Official media warn against the unrest spreading to the northwest region of Xinjiang, where Uighur Muslims have been bridling under Chinese control. The following day China attacks US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi for her meeting with the Dalai Lama, accusing her and other “human rights police” of double standards and ignoring the truth about the unrest in Tibet. On the same day 500 Uighurs protest in Khotan in the North western Xinjiang region.

On March 26 China announces hundreds of people have surrendered over anti-government riots among Tibetans and allows the first group of foreign journalists to visit the regional capital since the violence. However a group of monks protesting the absence of religious freedom disrupt a carefully orchestrated visit for foreign reporters to Tibet’s capital, an embarrassment for China. The deputy Communist Party secretary of Lhasa, says 800 protestors have been arrested while another 280 have surrendered.

WORLDWIDE PROTESTS ENSUE

In London thousands of anti-China protesters draped in Tibetan flags disrupt the Olympic torch relay – the same thing happens in Paris. On April 11 an indignant China says the US “seriously hurt the feelings of the Chinese people” when Congress passes a resolution calling on Beijing to stop cracking down on Tibetan dissent and to talk to the Dalai Lama. On May 12 a tragic earthquake with over 75,000 deaths diverts China’s attention as it tries to evacuate more potential victims. And, as the cycle Halfway point goes out of orb, please note that, apart from some Uyghur arrests, calm is now apparently restored in China’s border regions.

ISRAEL/PALESTINE

HAMAS NON-ACCEPTANCE OF ISRAEL & JEWISH SETTLEMENTS

In June 2006 the recently elected Hamas-led Palestinian government rejects a deadline to accept a proposal that implicitly recognizes Israel. At the same time Israel begins laying the foundations for Maskiot, a new Jewish settlement deep in the West Bank, breaking its promise on settlements to Washington. Hamas’s non-acceptance of Israel and the building of Jewish settlements on Palestinian territory will remain the key obstacles to peace negotiations throughout the cycle opposition. This all takes place against a backdrop of bitter infighting between Hamas and the rival Fatah movement and a surge in the number of Palestinian rockets fired into Israel inviting a regular Israeli airstrike response.

BITTER INFIGHTING BETWEEN HAMAS AND FATAH

On June 12 hundreds of Palestinian security men loyal to President Abbas go on a rampage against the Hamas-led government, riddling the parliament building and Cabinet offices with bullets before setting them ablaze in retaliation for an attack by Hamas gunmen in the Gaza strip. On June 19 Israel’s defence minister orders a review of the route of Israel’s separation barrier to better reflect Palestinian concerns, a decision that could have significant implications for Israel’s future borders. On June 27 Hamas and Fatah, anxious to lift crippling international aid sanctions, agree on a plan implicitly recognizing Israel.

ISRAEL RESPONDS TO KIDNAP WITH MAXIMUM FORCE

But on June 25 Hamas had kidnapped an Israeli corporal and a day later in response Israeli tanks and troops enter southern Gaza while its planes attack three bridges and knock out electricity and water supplies for most of the 1.3 million residents of the Gaza Strip. Israeli troops round up 27 Palestinian ministers and lawmakers from the ruling Hamas party. On July 8 the Hamas-led Palestinian government offers a truce but Israeli PM Olmert refuses until Hamas release the Israeli soldier. At the end of July 2006 Israeli troops withdraw from Northern Gaza. Then on August 25 in Jordan leaders of the Fatah party agree to form a unity government with the militant Hamas. (Aug 31 1st Exact Opposition date) On September 9 Israel ends its 10 week military operation which killed a reported 230 Gazans including over 60 children. The Economist magazine reports the operation has had no noticeable impact on militant activities.

UN CALLS FOR END TO ISRAELI OPERATIONS IN GAZA STRIP

In September 2006 when Israel kills more Palestinians in the Gaza strip tens of thousands march to demonstrate their support for Hamas. In October Israeli forces are on the offensive killing nearly 50 Palestinians – by no means all of whom are militants. A further 35 are killed in early November – in one instance Israeli tank shells crash into a residential neighbourhood killing at least 18 people including eight children in their sleep. Hamas’s exiled leader Khaled Mashaal says a 2005 truce with Israel is completely finished. On November 17 the UN General Assembly calls for an end to Israeli operations in the Gaza strip.  On November 25 Israel and the Palestinians finally agree to a cease-fire to end the five-month Israeli military offensive in the Gaza Strip and the firing of rockets by Palestinian militants into Israel. On December 23 Israeli PM Olmert and Palestinian President Abbas meet for the first time in 22 months. Feuding between Fatah and Hamas continues into 2007 escalating at the end of January into gunfights and mortar and rocket grenade attacks that kill some 35 people. (Feb 28 2nd exact Opposition date). Then on March 15 Hamas and Fatah form a long sought after unity government – immediately Israel states it will not deal with the new government.

HAMAS FIGHT AGAINST FATAH MAXIMISES

On April 24 2007 the armed wing of Hamas fires a barrage of rockets and mortar shells from Gaza toward Israel on its independence day, saying they consider it the end of a five-month truce with Israel. On May 17 Israeli aircraft strike a Hamas command centre citing the firing by militants of more than 50 rockets at the Israeli border town of Siderot. On June 7 the conflict between Hamas and Fatah erupts into a week long battle killing over a hundred and wounding around 500. Then on June 14 Palestinian President Abbas declares an emergency after the Hamas militant group effectively takes control of the Gaza Strip and removes Fatah officials. When Hamas fighters overrun one of the rival Fatah movement’s most important security installations, witnesses say the victors drag vanquished gunmen into the street and shoot them to death gangland-style. 14 are killed and 80 wounded in this battle. (June 25 3rd exact Opposition date) President Abbas goes on to swear in an emergency Cabinet and outlaw the militia forces of the Islamic Hamas movement. In response Israel’s PM Olmert promises to free 250 Palestinian prisoners and to improve life in the West Bank.

ISRAEL TRIES TO SHORE UP PALESTINIAN PRESIDENT ABBAS

On September 11 a Palestinian rocket explodes in an Israeli army base, wounding more than 40 soldiers as they sleep in their tents. It draws calls for a major military operation against the militants. Israel’s Security Cabinet declares the Gaza Strip an “enemy entity” in order to cut off its power and fuel supplies – at the same time it votes to release 90 Palestinian prisoners in an effort to shore up moderate Palestinian President Abbas. On November 7 the watchdog group Peace Now says Israel is enlarging 88 of its 122 West Bank settlements despite an agreement to halt the spread of Jewish communities in Palestinian territory. On November 12 comes the bloodiest day of inter-Palestinian fighting since Hamas seized control of the Gaza strip in June. On December 3 Israel releases a further 429 Palestinian prisoners to try and strengthen President Abbas’s position. But the following day it says it is seeking bids to build more than 300 new homes in a disputed East Jerusalem neighbourhood. Then on December 11 Israeli tanks and bulldozers backed by attack aircraft move into the southern Gaza Strip.

MILITANT ROCKET ATTACKS MET BY AIR STRIKES

The year 2008 starts with violent clashes between Hamas and Fatah. Then as US President Bush makes a visit promising a Middle East peace treaty Israeli tanks and helicopters raid Gaza in the bloodiest day of fighting since Hamas took control of the territory. January continues with militant rocket attacks countered by Israeli air strikes. Then on January 23 tens of thousands of Palestinians on foot and on carts pour into Egypt from Gaza after masked gunmen use land mines to blast down a seven- mile barrier dividing the border town of Rafah – there is violence as Egyptian riot police try to control this incursion.

HAMAS TO ACCEPT PALESTINIAN STATE IF PRE-1967 BORDERS

On 1 March Palestinians call off peace talks with Israel after 33 Gazans are killed. The death toll climbs to 70 as Israeli troops, backed by tanks and aircraft, go after Palestinian militants. On March 31 Jerusalem announces plans to build 600 new apartments in Palestinian territory. Throughout April militant attacks lead to Israel sending in tanks, aircraft and troops. Former US President Carter announces that Hamas is prepared to accept the right of the Jewish state to “live as a neighbour next door in peace.” Hamas admits it would accept a Palestinian state provided it has the pre-1967 borders. However as if to deny this possibility on June 13 Israel confirms plans to build 1,300 more apartments in Palestinian East Jerusalem. Then on June 19 as the cycle opposition heads out of orb Israel Hamas announce a six month truce in a bid to end a year of fighting that has killed more than 400 Palestinians – but under 20 Israelis. How long will the truce last ?

THREE QUARTER STAGE  November 2014 to September 2017 (exact in Nov 2015 and & June and September 2016

The cycle Three quarter stage stays in orb from 9 Nov 2014 to 30 September 2017. What developments in this period might we expect if the issues activated by ideals in 1988, challenged by events in 1998-99, maximised by events in 2006-08 now encounter a terminal stage where their coherence and relevance starts to dissipate ? Once again we examine Russia and its bordering countries, South Africa, China and Israel/ Palestine but we also focus in on CLIMATE CHANGE – which is not just a political issue – in terms of countering Global Warming by reducing global emissions – but an ideological one in terms of the sort of world and the sort of lifestyle we should live in.

CLIMATE CHANGE

This three-quarter stage in this 36 year cycle sees the first major international agreement to combat global warming by limiting the rise in average world temperatures to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius  above pre-industrial times. Collaboration and commitment climb to peak at the Paris Climate Change Accord but euphoria fades and is severely impacted by US President Trump’s decision to stop implementing the international agreement which has already become law. This is a terminal stage in this medium term ‘implementing ideals’ cycle. The implication is that not until a new cycle starts in 2026 will a fresh and more binding international implementation plan have any chance of succeeding

A PERIOD WHERE IMPLEMENTATION EVIDENTLY FALLS  SHORT OF AIMS

What does this terminal 3 year duration stage in this 36 year cycle mean ? A week before the three quarter stage begins the UN’s panel on climate science confirms climate change is almost entirely down to man’s activities and that limiting its impact may require reducing greenhouse gas emissions this century to Zero. If that is the target by the year 2100 a revolution in global, national and individual behaviour is clearly called for. The evidence looking at this 3 year period demonstrates that while international co-operation is high the implementation of the idealistic aims of ‘saving the planet’ falls far short of what is needed and that a much tighter fast-track in international and national policy is called for.

NOV 2014 – ARE GOVERNMENTS STICKING THEIR HEADS IN THE SAND ?

The colour of decisions and agreements is typified by an announcement by China and the US on 12 November, immediately before the G20 conference, of an agreement to new limits on carbon emissions starting in 2025. For on examination this pledge by the world’s two biggest polluters appears to be more politically significant than environmentally substantive. As if to reflect this the following day in Australia more than 400 protesters stick their heads in the sand on Bondi Beach, mocking their government’s reluctance to put climate change on the agenda of the G20 summit. Some progress occurs when President Obama pledges a $3 billion US contribution to an international fund to help poor countries cope with the effects of climate change. However by Nov 20 donor nations have together only pledged a total of $9.3 billion, which environmental campaigners say falls drastically short of what is needed.

DEC 2014 – THE BATTLE TO AGREE ON WHAT MUST BE DEBATED

On 1 December 2014 in Lima, Peru the 20th Conference of the parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change convenes. By Dec 13 the conference has to go into overtime as negotiators dispute a draft agreement that environmentalists complain fails to clearly define the responsibilities countries are due to accept at the key summit in Paris next year. As we shall see it is the battle to agree a definition of the principles to be debated at a later date that has characterized so many of these international conferences. It is naturally difficult to reach challenging decisions among so many nations but if you cannot even agree what decisions are to be debated that is a major obstacle. The conference does end with some 190 nations agreeing on the building blocks of a new-style global deal due in 2015 to combat climate change.

JAN to APR 2015 – AIR POLLUTION RATHER THAN GLOBAL WARMING IS THE MOST VIVID PUBLIC ISSUE

For the public it is visible evidence of serious damage to the environment, whether or not the result of global warming, that makes the issue of Climate change more prominent. On 15 January 2015 in China pollution levels soar in Beijing to readings more than 20 times WHO recommended limits, as a bout of intense smog returns to haunt the capital. On February 7 air pollution in Delhi, India, is reported to be the worst in the world with levels of smaller particulates routinely 15 times above WHO limits. At the end of February 2015 an online video documentary “Under the Dome” is released to China. It points out the role of large state-owned enterprises in creating the semi-permanent smog that cloaks many cities in the country. It gets viewed by some 200 million people before it is blocked by the authorities.

Hence this period sees the issue of air pollution attracting much higher attention than Climate change. Just before the February UNFCCC Geneva conference new evidence is published in the journal Nature Geoscience suggesting that air pollution tied to industrialization in the northern hemisphere has almost certainly reduced rainfall over Central America. This kind of alarming finding is nevertheless insufficient to overcome resistance to the hard choices facing the 200 countries attending the conference.

On March 20 Beijing shuts down the third of its four coal-fired power plants as part of its campaign to cut pollution, with the final one scheduled to close in 2016. At the same time the mayor of the French capital Paris promises from this date the number of cars on the road will gradually be cut in half – public transport will be made free in order to combat the spike in pollution that has obscured even the Eiffel Tower under a smoggy haze. On April 7 India’s National Green Tribunal passes a series of stringent measures aimed at curbing air pollution in New Delhi. However Greenpeace activists accuse India’s Prime Minister Modi’s government of watering down environmental rules after it allows industries to operate close to protected green zones.

Greenpeace goes on to issue a report saying that Chinese government data confirms that 90% of Chinese cities have failed to meet national air quality standards for the first three months of this year. On April 19 the mayor of Haifa, Israel’s third largest city, orders the closure of five petrochemical plants following a health ministry warning linking high cancer rates to air pollution. On April 28 the WHO says air pollution in Europe is causing illnesses and hundreds of thousands of deaths with the cost to governments a combined $1.6 trillion a year.

MAY to JULY 2015 – PROGRESS ON CLIMATE CHANGE IS MADE BUT MOSTLY VERY FORWARD – LOOKING

There is some progress – but most of it is very forward-looking. At the end of April 2015 California Governor Jerry Brown issues an executive order lowering by 2030 the state’s greenhouse gas emissions to 40% below its 1990 levels and goes on to sign an agreement with representatives of six foreign nations and three US states to keep the world’s temperature from rising another 2 degrees Celsius. On May 5 2015 China says it will expand its bans on coal burning to include suburban areas as well as city centres in a further effort to tackle air pollution and on June 1 China’s biggest steelmaking province, Hebei, orders its big industrial emitters to pay for the pollution they discharge via a regional trading scheme.

On June 4 more than 30,000 people in Munich, Germany demonstrate against the G7 summit. Environmentalists, opposition parties and anti-globalization activists rally to “Save the Climate and Fight Poverty”. On June 18 the Pope, leader of 1.2 billion Catholics, issues a major encyclical on the Environment. On June 24 a Dutch court orders the state to slash greenhouse gas emissions nationwide by at least 25 percent by 2020. However a few days later the US Supreme Court in a 5-4 decision invalidates a key Obama administration environmental regulation aimed at limiting emissions of hazardous pollutants mainly from coal-fired power plants.

On July 8 the European Parliament approves a proposal to begin reform of the world’s biggest carbon market in 2019. On July 19 the Marshall Islands, a small island country at high risk of climate change-induced sea level rise, vows to cut greenhouse gas emissions by a third within a decade. On August 3 President Obama unveils an aggressive plan to sharply limit greenhouse gases emitted by US power plants.

AUG to NOV 2015 – MORE NATIONS MAKE COMMITMENTS AS INTERNATIONAL FINANCE SUPPORT EMERGES

On Aug 11 2015 Australian lawmakers agree on a target of curbing carbon gas emissions to at least 26 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. On Aug 13 the President of the low-lying Pacific island nation of Kiribati calls for a global moratorium on new coal mines to slow global warming and a creeping rise in world sea levels. On Aug 18 in Turkey Muslim scholars and environmental advocates from about 20 countries call for a global phase-out of greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century. On Aug 29 China says legislators have approved amendments to the country’s 15-year-old air pollution law that grants the state new powers to punish offenders and create a legal framework to cap coal consumption. 

On Sept 6 ministers and diplomats from 57 countries gather in Paris to discuss the make-or-break issue of finance for the climate rescue deal to be sealed in December. On Sept 21 Indonesia pledges to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 29 percent by 2030 and to raise that target to 41 percent with international support. On Sept 28 Brazil pledges to slash its greenhouse gas emissions by 43 percent by 2030 but says it will include reductions from past efforts against deforestation.Chinese President Xi Jinping, announces Beijing will establish an assistance fund with an initial pledge of $2 billion to help developing countries implement a global sustainable development agenda over the next 15 years.

On October 9 2015 in Canada the Carbon Engineering company, with global plans to pull carbon from thin air to make fuel while tackling climate change, opens a pilot plant in British Columbia. On November 2 China and France agree to push for long-term monitoring of the UN accord to combat climate change due in Paris in December by reviewing cuts in greenhouse gas emissions every five years. On Nov 6 the Green Climate Fund (GCF), a multi-billion dollar fund set up by the UN to help poor countries tackle climate change, approves its first eight projects. Soon after the World Bank launches a $500 million market-based scheme designed to help developing countries pay for emission reductions .On Nov 6 President Obama kills the proposed Keystone XL pipeline, declaring it would have undercut US efforts to clinch a global climate change deal.

In France more than 60 environment and energy ministers tasked with inking a global pact to rein in climate change, meet in Paris while in Malta heads of government from the Commonwealth family, representing around a third of the world’s population, pledge to insist on an “ambitious” and legally-binding outcome to the meeting. [Nov 26 2015 1^st exact cycle Three quarter stage date] Doubts about whether that will really be achieved however spur tens of thousands of people from Sydney to London on November 29 to join one of the biggest days of climate change activism, telling world leaders gathering for the Paris summit that there is “No Planet B” in the fight against global warming. More than 2,000 events are held in cities around the world making it probably the biggest day of climate action in history. In Paris police use tear gas against demonstrators. The following day the Summit starts.

DECEMBER 2015 : PARIS CLIMATE SUMMIT – THE KEY EVENT IN THIS 2014-17 PERIOD ?

On December 5 2015 negotiators from 195 nations agree on a draft accord to combat global warming. On December 12 French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius presents the landmark global climate accord. The 31-page draft text creates a system for ensuring countries make good on voluntary domestic efforts to curb emissions, and provides billions more dollars to help poor nations cope with the transition to a greener economy – the US having just announced plans to double its grant funding to developing countries to around $860 million a year.

On January 11 2016 analysts at Thomson Reuters Point Carbon report a 9% rise in the value of global markets for carbon dioxide (CO2) allowances. But Carbon Dioxide is not the only greenhouse gas and on the same day the Green group Environmental Defense Fund reports that of the 65 largest US oil and gas producers and midstream companies it has reviewed, only 18 had reported their methane emissions. Methane is the second most prevalent greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide and many times more potent at trapping heat. On January 13 President Obama announces a strategic change “I’m going to push to change the way we manage our oil and coal resources, so that they better reflect the costs they impose on taxpayers and our planet”. The strategy would not just aim to lower carbon emissions from US power plants but also cover methane emissions from new or modified oil and gas processing and transmission facilities. On Jan 15 US Interior Secretary Sally Jewell orders a pause on issuing new coal leases on federal land – roughly 40 percent of US coal production occurs on federal land. On Jan 21 a US federal court rejects a bid by 27 states to block President Obama’s Clean Power Plan.

On January 20 2016 British climate expert Chris Hope releases new data showing that 2015 was the hottest year ever recorded. NASA and the British Meteorological Office confirm that 2015 was the warmest year recorded since 1880 putting it ahead of 2014, the previous warmest. Sceptics however allege that temperature increases are most likely caused by El Nino, the band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific – some predicting that temperatures are likely to be cooler in 2017. But a US led team of experts, writing in the journal Scientific states “Recent observed runs of record temperatures are extremely unlikely to have occurred in the absence of human-caused global warming”. With up to 13 of the 15 warmest years all from 2000 to 2014 the study estimates the chance of this record run being random with no human influence is between one in 770 and one in 10,000. Adding the 2015 data widened the odds to at least 1 in 1,250.

FEB 2016 – OPPOSITION TO LIMITS MANIFESTS

At the start of February 2016 President Obama launches a bid to impose a $10-a-barrel tax on crude oil that would fund the overhaul of the nation’s aging transportation infrastructure. But on February 9 the US Supreme Court delivers him a major blow by putting on hold federal regulations to curb carbon dioxide emissions mainly from coal-fired power plants, the centrepiece of his administration’s strategy to combat climate change and the main tool for the US to meet the emissions reduction target pledged at the UN climate talks in Paris. On Feb 22 – 23 airline manufacturers manage to escape the threat of big costs from new UN climate standards while Japan’s environment ministry does a U-turn on coal plant CO2 limits.

MARCH 2016 – PRESSURE FOR TOUGHER TARGETS DEVELOPS

On March 4 Germany, France and the UK press the EU for tougher greenhouse gas targets. On March 5 China, the world’s second biggest economy sets a 5 billion tonnes by 2020 cap on energy consumption for the first time. A couple of days later a study suggests that China’s carbon emissions may have already peaked in 2014. Together these reports suggest Beijing needs to toughen its climate pledges.

APRIL 2016 – FIRST SIGNATURES BUT RECORD TEMPERATURES

In mid April, at the request of the UN’s climate panel, scientists launch a study to assess how hard it would be to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The Paris summit had set a goal of limiting average surface temperatures to “well below” 2C while merely “pursuing efforts” for 1.5C. Many scientists believe the 1.5C goal would require unrealistically deep cuts in emissions. On April 22 China and the United States, the world’s top producers of greenhouse gas emissions, pledge to formally adopt by the end of 2016 the Paris deal. However the deal will enter into force only when ratified by at least 55 nations representing 55 percent of man-made greenhouse gas emissions. China and the United States together account for 38 percent of global emissions. However in May 2016 the UN warns that even if the pact is fully implemented, promised greenhouse gas cuts are insufficient to limit warming to the agreed maximum. The first three months of 2016 have broken temperature records and 2015 was the warmest year since records began. NASA confirms that April was the warmest April since the 19th century and the seventh month in a row to break temperature records.

MAY + JUNE 2016 – FRANCE RATIFIES BUT IN THE US TRUMP VOWS RENEGOTIATION

In May 2016 a study reveals that only 97 of the world’s top 500 investors are taking tangible steps to mitigate global warming though Norway’s $872-billion Sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, says it will press the oil majors ExxonMobil and Chevron to do more. Others warn that nations should be considering the potential impact of temperature rises of as much as 4 degrees C, double the target set by the Paris Treaty. Pressure builds on the shipping and the airline industries, neither covered by the Paris deal, to set carbon targets. On May 16 Government experts begin work on a rule book to implement the 2015 Paris Agreement. However on May 18 the US Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump vows to renegotiate the global accord on climate change if elected. [June 18 2016 2nd exact cycle three-quarter stage] On June 15 France formally ratifies the Treaty. At the June G20 meeting in Beijing Energy ministers come under attack over their failure to agree a deadline for the phasing out of subsidies on fossil fuels.

JULY + AUGUST 2016 – PHILIPPINES RELUCTANCE AND ASSESSING 1.5 DEGREE GOAL

In July the WMO reports that the world is on track for its hottest year on record and levels of carbon dioxide have reached new highs. While July sees the EPA paves the way for new curbs on emissions from passenger jets, the Philippines President refuses to sign the Paris deal arguing that the fight against global warming must not hinder industrialisation. Ironically the Philippines is the current leader of the Climate Vulnerable Forum, a group of 50 countries likely to suffer most from the impact of climate change. August starts with President Obama requiring US federal agencies to disclose whether their actions and decisions will have an impact on climate change. Some 450 scientists worldwide confirm that 2015 was the warmest year on record for land and sea. On Aug 15 Climate scientists meet in Geneva to plan a UN report about the 1.5C goal. The UN led study will examine impacts of a 1.5C rise on vulnerable parts of the world including Greenland’s ice sheet and the coral reefs. At the same time investors (managing more than $13 trillion) and insurers (managing over $1.3 trillion) formally urge G20 leaders to step up efforts to shift from fossil fuels.

SEPTEMBER + OCTOBER 2016 – CHINA, USA, BRAZIL AND INDIA TAKE SIGNINGS TO 55%

On September 3  the US and China ratify the Paris Treaty. On the same day China, the US and Europe all pledge support for a new deal to curb carbon dioxide emissions by airlines. But concerns arise when on Sept 6 China fails to set a target year to phase out hundreds of billions of dollars in state subsidies for polluting fossil fuels and when Poland, a member of the EU, indicates it is only willing to back EU ratification if guarantees of financing for new, cleaner coal-fired power stations are included. On 9 Sept EU regulators are reported ready to propose a binding target to cut energy use by 30 percent by 2030, a significantly more ambitious goal than previously discussed – and to impose its own aviation emission rules ahead of when the proposed global deal is due to come into force. On 12 Sept Brazil ratifies the Paris deal. [September 10 2016 3rd exact cycle three-quarter stage]  On 28 Sept Norway announces a radical ‘climate budget’  that aims to halve carbon emissions in four years while a conference in Oslo warns global warming is on track to breach the 2 degree Celsius threshold by 2050. On 2 October India ratifies the Climate Change treaty. Then two days later the European parliament formally backs the Paris accord. This takes by October 4 the number of nations ratifying the treaty to account for over the 55% of global emissions threshold required. 30 days later, on November 4 2016  the Climate Change Treaty came into effect.

Note how close the Paris Accord (5/12/15), the first major Accord signing (15/6/16) and the reaching of the 55% threshold (4/10/16) come to the 3 exact dates of the cycle three-quarter stage. (Nov 26 2015, June 18 2016 and Sept 10 2016)

On 17 November 2016 Britain ratifies the Paris Agreement. On 30 November EU regulators set a path for renewables to power half of Europe by 2030. In December Beijing’s city government orders 1,200 factories near the Chinese capital to shut or cut output after authorities issue the highest possible air pollution alert. Soon after moves to cut vehicle air pollution are also taken in Madrid, Sarajevo, Paris, London, New Delhi, Stuttgart and Nepal’s capital. In January 2017 the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announces that 2016 was the hottest of modern times – the third year in a row to break records. In February the UN World Meteorological Organization says the extent of sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic last month was the lowest on record for January, while concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere hit a January record.

THE TRUMP BOMBSHELL

At the end of March new US President Donald Trump signs an executive order to undo a mass of Obama-era climate change regulations despite environmental groups vowing to take the move to court. President Trump also signs an executive order to review and revise Obama’s flagship energy policy, the Clean Power Plan, which had never been implemented. In May the G7 democracies end their summit in Sicily without unanimous agreement on climate change.  In June President Trump announces his administration would immediately stop implementing the 195-nation Paris accord and states the US would no longer contribute to the Green Climate Fund, a UN initiative to bring climate finance to developing countries.

Despite this California Governor Jerry Brown joins with New York and Washington state governors to announce a new alliance of states dedicated to fight global warming. In August the US NOAA confirms that 2016 also broke records for sea-level rise and the level of heat-trapping pollutants in the atmosphere. In October the UN weather agency warns that carbon-dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere increased at record-breaking speed the previous year.

In conclusion the Cycle three quarter stage seems to match a period when although societal goals are much more clearly formulated and agreed by the parties involved, a plethora of escape routes and analytic complexities and obstacles are likely to frustrate progress and almost certainly demand a complete re-think of implementation rules and procedures or enabling technologies by the time the new 36 year cycle starts in 2026.

RUSSIA – UKRAINE & OPPOSITION STIFLED

By this period the Russian government under Vladimir Putin has gotten a grip on corruption though judicial reform has been slight. What marks this period is the aggression directed towards Ukraine as it flirts with joining NATO and the severe repression of political opposition represented chiefly by Alexei Navalny. Let’s look at the aggression towards Ukraine first.

UKRAINE – RUSSIA AN “AGGRESSOR STATE”

On November 7 2014 Russia’s military support to Russian sympathising rebels in Ukraine surges. Ukraine reports that a column of 32 tanks, 16 howitzer artillery systems and trucks carrying ammunition and fighters has crossed into eastern Ukraine from Russia. As East Ukraine’s rebel stronghold Donetsk gets pummelled by the heaviest shelling to date the appearance of a reinforcement armoured column of troops with no insignia is strong evidence that Moscow had sent reinforcements. On Nov 19 Russia urges Ukraine’s leaders to talk directly to the separatists to end the conflict in the east, but Kiev rejects the call telling Moscow to stop “playing games” aimed at legitimizing “terrorists”. At the end of November Ukraine reports a convoy of 106 vehicles had entered its eastern territory from Russia.

On Dec 2 NATO approves a new interim quick-reaction military force to protect itself from Russia or similar threats while foreign ministers from the 28 NATO countries condemn Russia’s “deliberate destabilization” of eastern Ukraine. On Dec 16 President Obama signs into law sanctions on Russian weapons companies and investors in the country’s high-tech oil projects and authorises additional aid to Ukraine. Canadian sanctions follow. In January 2015 the EU parliament which has already imposed sanctions condemns Russia as a “potential threat to the European Union itself”.

Following renewed attacks by pro-Russian separatists on Ukrainian forces at the Donetsk airport complex Ukraine’s military claim that some 700 Russian troops have crossed into the country to aid the rebels. Later Ukrainian President Poroshenko says the number has risen to 9,000. On January 21 four-way talks in Berlin involving Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France only result in an agreed “demarcation line” between pro-Russian fighters and Kiev’s forces. Ukraine’s parliament goes on to approve a statement defining Russia as an “aggressor state” and declaring the Russian-backed separatist republics in the east ‘terrorist organizations’. Yet on Feb 12 the four-way talks result in a ceasefire followed by the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the front line and a degree of constitutional reform to give eastern Ukraine more autonomy.

Meanwhile in Central Moscow on Feb 27 Russian opposition politician Boris Nemtsov is shot four times in the back by assailants in a car as he walks across a bridge – he is reported to have been preparing a report on the presence of Russian troops in Ukraine. On May 12 that report is released stating that at least 220 Russian soldiers have been killed in east Ukraine. It also states that Russia has spent more than 53 billion rubles ($1.04 billion) funding the conflict. By now Ukraine’s army has named the specific Russian military units in eastern Ukraine and on May 19 it shows off two Russian soldiers it has captured. Ten days later President Putin declares all deaths of Russian soldiers during special operations to be classified as a state secret.

On September 25 Ukraine announces a ban on flights by Russian airlines or Russian planes carrying military hardware or troops. On October 2 the four-way talks resume in Paris. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) says its monitors have spotted a Russian mobile weapons system in rebel-held Ukraine. This helps maximise the impact of the announcement on Oct 13 by the Dutch Safety Board that it was a Russian-made Buk missile which had shot down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine in July 2014 killing all 298 people on board, most of them Dutch. The following year Russian missile-maker Almaz-Antey counters by claiming the BUK missile was fired from territory held by the Ukrainian army.

There is negligible development in the situation in Ukraine up to the end of the three quarter cycle phase in September 2017. But it is manifestly clear that this period exactly sees the development of international recognition that the Russian state is prepared to flout international and domestic law by using violent force both to help expand its frontiers and as we now see repress internal political opposition.

RUSSIAN OPPOSITION STIFLED

With the murder of Boris Nemtsov the focus now turns to another Kremlin critic. On December 19 2014 a Moscow court extends a term of house arrest for Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny on trial for stealing more than 30 million rubles (£317,743) – charges he dismisses as part of a campaign by President Putin to stifle dissent. Social networking sites rallying for a planned mass protest are reported being blocked by Russia’s Internet watchdog. Yet on March 1 tens of thousands of Russians march through central Moscow, carrying banners declaring “I am not afraid” and chanting “Russia without Putin” in memory of Boris Nemtsov. On April 28 Russia’s Justice Ministry says that the registration of the opposition Progress Party, led by Alexei Navalny, has been cancelled because it has not registered operation in at least half of Russia’s regions. On February 12 2016 the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) rules that Russia violated opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s right to a fair trial, and orders the government to pay him €56,000 euros in legal costs and damages.

In September 2016 Russia holds elections for a new national parliament. With little credible opposition allowed Vladimir Putin wins even greater supremacy over Russia’s political system, his party United Russia taking three quarters of the seats in parliament, paving the way for him to run for a fourth term as president. The official turnout was just 48%. In November 2016 Russia overturns the criminal conviction against Alexei Navalny following the EHCR decision, but rules he must face a fresh trial. On February 2 2017 another Kremlin critic Vladimir Kara-Murza is hospitalized after collapsing in Moscow with “acute poisoning” by an unknown substance, two years after a previous suspected poisoning nearly killed him. On the same day the EHCR makes a further ruling that Russia violated the rights of Alexei Navalny by breaking up demonstrations and detaining him on seven occasions between 2012 and 2014. Navalny accuses the Kremlin of trying to block him from running in next year’s presidential election after a court finds him guilty of embezzlement and gives him a five-year suspended prison sentence.

On Feb 26 2017 thousands of Russians march through Moscow shouting slogans such as “Russia will be free!” and “Putin is war” to mark two years since Boris Nemtsov was gunned down outside the Kremlin. On March 2 Navalny accuses Russian PM Dmitry Medvedev of controlling a property empire financed by oligarchs through a network of shadowy non-profit organizations. On March 26 Russian police detain dozens of protesters across the country, including Navalny, after thousands take to the streets to demonstrate against corruption and demand Medvedev’s resignation. Over 1,000 people are arrested in Moscow alone. After staging the biggest anti-corruption protest in years. Alexei Navalny is once again sentenced to jail and fined. On April 19 a Russian journalist who had complained about corruption is murdered. On April 27 unknown attackers douse Alexei Navalny with green antiseptic, burning one of his eyes. The next day an activist of the liberal opposition Yabloko party suffers burns to her face and partial loss of her sight as a result of an attack.

Later several hundred Russians line up in central Moscow under the gaze of riot police to hand over handwritten appeals for President Vladimir Putin to quit. On June 5 Natalya Sharina, the head of Russia’s only state-run Ukrainian library, is convicted of inciting hatred against Russians in a case that she compared to a Stalin-era political show trial. On June 12 Alexei Navalny is again detained after spearheading protest gatherings in cities across Russia. Police arrest nearly 900 demonstrators in Moscow and 650 in St. Petersburg.

On June 30 Russia’s President Putin extends Russian counter-sanctions on the EU and suspends payments to the Council of Europe. On July 7 Putin reportedly tells US President Trump that Moscow had not meddled in the US elections, and Trump accepts it. Yet on July 30 Putin says that US diplomatic missions in Moscow and elsewhere in Russia will have to reduce their staffs by 755 people in response to American sanctions.

On August 4 a Russian court extends probation for Alexei Navalny by one year, a sentence that should bar him from running for office until at least 2021. Navalny launches a YouTube attack on President Putin alleging massive corruption on lucrative government contracts. On August 10 another trial denounced by human rights groups jails the journalist Alexander Sokolov after finding him guilty of organizing an extremist group and attempting to overthrow the authorities. On September 10 a prominent Russian political writer Yulia Latynina says she has left Russia fearing for her life.

On Sept 14 Ukraine welcomes President Putin’s declared openness to deployment of UN peacekeepers in separatist-controlled areas of eastern Ukraine, but warns Russian troops must not join such an operation. On September 25 the UN human rights office says in a report that Russia is violating international law in Crimea, including by imposing Russian citizenship on its people and deliberately transferring hundreds of prisoners to prisons in Russia. In the next 3 months after this cycle phase ends there are no significant opposition developments. At the end of the year more than 15,000 people nationwide endorse the candidacy of Alexei Navalny in the forthcoming Presidential election.

CHINA – CORRUPTION & XINJIANG + TAIWAN

ANTI-CORRUPTION DRIVE

On October 28 2014 China’s Communist Party publishes a lengthy resolution calling for an extensive and profound revolution in the way the country is governed. It pledges to speed up legislation to fight corruption and make it tougher for officials to exert control over the judiciary. The former deputy chairman of the ruling Communist Party’s Central Military Commission and the deputy chief of the National Coal bureau are both arrested on bribery charges. In November China announces the arrest of 288 fugitives suspected of committing economic crimes as part of an aggressive effort aimed at individuals who have fled abroad. Others are given a deadline to surrender. By May 2015 some 680 fugitives have repatriated.

In February 2015 a former provincial party leader is expelled from the ruling Communist party for bribery and stripped of all government positions and a former deputy governor of the province of Anhui is found guilty of taking more than $2 million in bribes. In March Chinese military prosecutors release a list of 14 generals convicted of graft or placed under investigation in an accelerating nationwide anti-corruption drive. On April 3 prosecutors charge former national security chief Zhou Yongkang with corruption and leaking of state secrets, the highest-level politician to stand trial in China in three decades. He and family members are later found to have pocketed more than $20 million and he gets sentenced to prison for life. On April 23 the deposed leader of one of China’s most populous provinces, confesses to charges of bribery and abuse of power.

In May China announces new rules preventing the spouses and children of top government officials from entering private business and profiting from their government connections. In July the Vice President of the Supreme People’s Court and the former President’s top aide both come under investigation for corruption. In August General Gu Junshan, the highest-ranking military officer in the country’s vast army to be tried, receives a suspended death sentence. In October Jiang Jiemin, who previously led the country’s biggest petroleum company and a deputy party chief in Sichuan province are convicted of corruption closely followed by a top China National Petroleum company executive and a senior provincial official. December 2015 sees five more top officials in sectors as diverse as universities, banks, energy companies telecom companies and conglomerate groups,

In January and February 2016 five further high ranking figures are charged bringing to 67 the number known to have been investigated, expelled or sentenced this year alone. Top figures are prosecuted in July and in October a former provincial Communist Party boss is sentenced to death with a two-year reprieve. In March 2017, as a Chinese 55-part TV series about China’s battle against corruption, begins broadcasting. a flurry of other top officials are charged including a police chief in Jinzhou City and a real estate manager in Ningbo. As pressure on fugitive corruption suspects mounts, a warrant is issued for the arrest of Guo Wengui, a Chinese billionaire who had threatened to expose corruption at the highest levels of the Communist Party.

In May 2017 both the former chairman of China’s major steel maker and the former head of the statistics bureau are given long jail sentences. In July Sun Zhengcai, once considered a potential future leader, the former chairman of the board at the China Development Bank and a state owned firm chief accountant are all charged with corruption. Even the head of the anti-graft committee for the Ministry of Finance is himself put under investigation for suspected graft. By October 8 as this cycle phase ends China’s anti-graft watchdog states that roughly 1.34 million lower-ranking officials have been punished since 2013 under President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption drive.

XINJIANG + TAIWAN

In November 2014 the standing committee of Xinjiang’s parliament, bans the practice of religion in government buildings and stipulates steep penalties for individuals who use the Internet, mobile phones or digital publishing to undermine national unity, social stability or incite ethnic hatred. The declared aim is to crush terrorism in the Muslim Uighur province. In December eight people are sentenced to death on charges of leading terror groups and setting off explosives in two attacks that leave 46 people dead. There are more attacks in January 2015 and also trouble with Tibetan groups in Sichuan. Meanwhile in Qinghai province angry Muslims smash windows after pork was found in a delivery van. This was reported along with a story that the authorities had ordered Muslim shopkeepers and restaurants to sell alcohol and cigarettes as part of an effort to weaken the hold of Islam in the region. In June 2015 sporadic knife attacks continue in Xinjiang.

In November 2015 President Xi Jinping tells Taiwan’s president Ma Ying-Jeou at the first meeting between leaders of the two sides since China’s civil war ended in 1949 that Taiwan must not let proponents of Taiwan’s independence split them. Hundreds of angry protesters mass outside the Taiwan President’s office, condemning his warm exchange with China’s leader that fuels fears that the democratic island will be swallowed up by its giant neighbour. Back in Xinjiang police kill 28 members of a “terrorist group”.  In December a China-Taiwan hotline come into service connecting the heads of two cabinet level agencies responsible for their relations but this is later withdrawn because the Taiwan government would not accept the ‘one-China’ principle . In March 2016 China’s state media quotes President Jinping as saying China will never allow the tragedy of Taiwan being “split” off from the rest of the country. In April 2016 Taiwan’s delegation was ejected from a meeting of the OECD’s steel committee after China complained, part of an apparent hardening of Beijing’s attitude toward the island it claims as its own territory. In September some 10,000 Taiwan tourism staff march to the presidential hall to demand that the government take steps to help their businesses, hard hit by worsening ties with mainland China. In November President Xi Jinping in a meeting with Taiwan’s opposition leader, confirms access to the PRC’s highest levels of power won’t be granted without acceptance that Taiwan is part of China.

In December 2016 US President-elect Donald Trump who makes an unprecedented direct phone call to Taiwan’s premier says the United States does not necessarily have to stick to its long-standing position that Taiwan is part of “one China,” questioning nearly four decades of policy. The Chinese government expresses “serious concern” at the statement. Over the 2016-17 winter in Xinjiang there are further sporadic attacks. In late February 2017 Chinese police confirm a prefecture in Xinjiang has ordered all vehicles to be equipped with GPS-like tracking software “ so that drivers “can be tracked wherever they go”. In April Uighur activists report that authorities are prohibiting parents from giving children at least 29 Islamic names, including Muhammad, Jihad and Islam.

In June 2017 China strongly protests a US plan to sell $1.4 billion worth of arms to Taiwan demanding the deal be cancelled.

WHY DOES HONG KONG NOT MATCH THIS CYCLE ?

While there are developments in this period in Hong Kong and in the relationship between the Chinese government and the province that was ceded to it by Britain twenty years earlier they are simply not challenging enough to qualify as a match to this cycle phase.. Indeed the real explosive challenge in the province clearly comes later between April and December 2019 – a period which matches the far less contentious incoming sextile (300 degrees into the 360 degree cycle) not covered by this site.

There are protests in March and June 2015, in seven of the twelve months of 2016 and crucially in June 2017 when following the visiting Chinese President’s speech stating “this city’s “one country, two systems” formula faces “new challenges” tens of thousands gather in a sprawling park named after Britain’s Queen Victoria, demanding President Xi Jingpin allow universal suffrage. But the real explosive challenge was yet to come.

The cycles on this site only match global issues. The way the PRC (the People’s Republic of China) deals with internal Corruption, with Uighur cultural and religious divergence and with its historically Nationalist neighbour Taiwan are actually all of global significance. Take each in turn. First, China’s economic success and its political stability are not just of critical importance to the West, they are critical to the world and are potentially threatened by the scale of corruption in the People’s Republic. Second, the reported oppression of the Uighur in China and the PRC’s human rights record are near the top of the list of issues argued by key national leaders in meetings with President Xi.

Third, while US policy on Taiwan, governed by the Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances had been firm but ambiguous, recent developments have put the US and the PRC on a potential collision course. US policy was meant to dissuade Taiwan from a declaration of independence but at the same time deter the PRC from unilaterally unifying Taiwan with the PRC. But in 2016 US President-elect Trump said “the United States does not necessarily have to stick to its long-standing position that Taiwan is part of “one China. In 2018 the US Congress passes the Taiwan Travel Act which significantly upgrades relations between the US and Taiwan. Later that year the leader of an official visit of US lawmakers to Taiwan ends by stating “The US will remain steadfast in its commitments to Taiwan’s security”. Compare that to the warning a few months later in 2019 from President Xi Jingpin i that “Unification with Taiwan was the goal and force is an option”

Hong Kong, formerly acquired by Britain on a 99 year lease from China in 1898, was returned the UK to the PRC in 1997. The agreement contained the assurance China would guarantee Hong Kong’s economic and political systems for 50 years after the transfer – till 2047. The current protests are over the separate status of Hong Kong’s political system. Though in June 2017 China’s Foreign Ministry says the agreement with Britain over Hong Kong was a historical document that no longer had any practical significance it is unlikely that political disagreement in Hong Kong would become of global significance – it is for this reason it is suggested that Hong Kong does not match China’s main political cycle.

SOUTH AFRICA – PRESIDENT ZUMA AND ANTI-FOREIGNER VIOLENCE

PRESIDENT ZUMA ACCUSED OF CORRUPTION

On November 12th 2014 South Africa opposition parties release their own report on the upgrades to President Jacob Zuma’s personal home calling for him to be removed from office. They demand a criminal investigation and that he pay back a portion of the more than $20 million in state funds used to improve his rural homestead.

In February 2015 against a background of stalling growth, rising debt, power blackouts and rampant unemployment the government announces it is scaling back spending plans. Yet overshadowing that President Zuma’s State of the Nation address is interrupted with questions about longstanding allegations of corruption. At the end of May 2015 the Minister of Police announces that President Zuma will not have to repay any of the public money spent on upgrades to his private residence. Unsurprisingly it was Zuma who had nominated the minister of police.

PROTEST AT WEAKENING ECONOMY & TUITION FEES

In October 2015 as public anger builds over the weakening economy several thousand demonstrators march through Johannesburg to protest against government corruption. A few days later the scope of protests spreads as chanting protesters demonstrate against planned increases in tuition fees at a number of top universities. Thousands of university students gather at the country’s main government complex, with some setting fires and throwing stones as police respond with stun grenades, tear gas and water cannon. Three months later protesting students burn down several buildings at a university, forcing administrators to close the campus. In November police fire on striking parliamentary workers demanding higher pay.

In February 2016 as opposition protestors march on the country’s Constitutional Court, President Zuma’s office announces he will pay back some of the public funds used to upgrade his private home. Evidence of the spread of corruption in the country grows when the Deputy finance minister alleges that the billionaire Gupta family accused of corrupting President Zuma had actually offered him the position of his boss. At the end of March two key developments occur: – South Africa’s Talk Radio 702 says the elite ‘Hawks’ police unit has launched a corruption probe into the activities of President Zuma’s son and the Guptas and 2) South Africa’s top court rules that President Zuma had flouted the constitution in using public funds to upgrade his private residence and must repay the money, sparking calls for his impeachment.

In April 2016 a South African court rules President Zuma should face 738 corruption charges previously dropped in 2009. In June while rioters block roads, loot shops and burn vehicles in the country’s capital, Pretoria over the selection of the ruling party’s mayoral candidate, the National Treasury insists President Zuma should pay back $500,000 of public funds used to upgrade his private residence.

LARGEST ELECTORAL BLOW TO ANC

In August 2016 South Africans vote in municipal elections, the most closely contested for the African National Congress (ANC) since it took power. The opposition Democratic Alliance lead in three major cities dealing the biggest electoral blow to the ANC since the end of apartheid. Perhaps in recognition of these winds of change the wealthy Gupta family, with influential ties to President Zuma, say they plan to sell all their business interests in the country. In October police fire rubber bullets, stun grenades and teargas at student protesters in Johannesburg as authorities tried to re-open the prestigious Wits University after weeks of demonstrations

In November 2016 South Africa’s anti-corruption watchdog releases its report into accusations against President Zuma calling for prosecutors to investigate. The main opposition party files a criminal complaint against the President. Police fire stun grenades and water cannon to disperse protesters outside the President’s offices in Pretoria demanding he quit.

In March 2017 the ruling ANC publishes a policy paper calling for an end to corruption as it battles to reverse its declining popularity. In April the powerful trade union federation Cosatu, a key coalition partner of the ruling ANC, calls for President Zuma to resign. Three cabinet ministers removed by President Zuma in a reshuffle quit the ANC. On President Zuma’s 75th birthday tens of thousands of demonstrators call for his resignation in a national outpouring of anger. And after President Zuma sacks a respected finance minister a second ratings agency lowers the country’s credit rating to junk status.

In May 2017 three former South African Presidents issue a joint call for action to end the nation’s “worsening” political crisis, the latest campaign targeting scandal-tainted President Zuma. Violent protests erupt in Johannesburg with police firing rubber bullets at demonstrators, who block roads and burn tires, demanding housing and other government services. In June leaked documents released by the media alleging improper dealings in government contracts open the President up to further scrutiny.

RECESSION WHILE ANC RIVEN BY CORRUPTION & DIVISIONS

As the official statistics agency reports that the economy contracted in the first quarter of 2017, pushing the continent’s largest economy into its first recession since 2009, the anti-corruption watchdog launches an investigation into several allies of President Zuma allegedly linked to corruption at three state-owned companies. The President, and later the Deputy President is forced to admit that the ruling ANC party is beset by corruption and divisions. In August President Zuma survives a no-confidence vote in parliament. In September there are further anti-corruption protests and as the cycle phase ends South Africa’s Supreme Court rules that President Zuma can face prosecution on almost 800 charges of corruption relating to a 1990s arms deal.

ANTI- FOREIGNER VIOLENCE

In January 2015 South Africa police state that days of anti-foreigner violence and looting of foreign-owned shops have left at least two people dead and 153 arrested in Johannesburg. In April six people are killed and shops owned by immigrants in townships in Durban looted and burnt, as violence between residents and foreign nationals escalates. Zimbabwe says it will evacuate its nationals. The army had to be deployed to curb the wave of anti-immigrant violence while several thousand demonstrators march through central Johannesburg to protest the spate of deadly attacks on immigrants. In May authorities said they have arrested about 750 immigrants staying illegally in the country.

Anti-foreigner violence in South Africa closely matches this cycle. It may seem paradoxical that the country most afflicted by racial apartheid in its history should be now so stricken with xenophobia but the fact that South Africa has become one of the most violent countries in the world is amplified by new crime statistics showing murder rising by 4.6% with 49 people murdered each day. Violent crimes had increased for a third year in a row while the economy, unemployment and poverty had worsened. The World Bank for instance had recently said that South Africa’s worst drought in over a century has pushed around 50,000 below the poverty line.

In February 2017 a further wave of xenophobic violence in which dozens of shops and houses owned by immigrants are torched and looted. The government calls for calm. Hundreds are arrested. 97 Nigerians are deported for various offences.

ISRAEL/PALESTINE – SURGE IN VIOLENCE + NEW SETTLEMENTS

On October 27 2014 just before the cycle phase comes into orb Israel announces the go-ahead for plans to build over 1,000 new Jewish settler homes in annexed east Jerusalem. At the same time Sweden’s PM Stefan Lofven ignoring Israeli protests announces his country’s formal recognition of a Palestinian state, becoming the first EU member in western Europe to do so. In November Hamas announces the creation of a “popular army” in the Gaza Strip, saying it was ready for any future conflict with Israel, particularly over the flashpoint Al-Aqsa mosque compound. Israel’s Shin Bet security service claims to have uncovered a vast Hamas network in the West Bank that was planning large-scale attacks against Israelis in Jerusalem.

December sees some 100 Palestinians demonstrate outside a military prison near Ramallah and others in Hebron. In both incidents troops shoot live bullets at their legs, wounding 10. In Geneva the international community delivers a stinging rebuke to Israel’s settlement construction in the West Bank and east Jerusalem, saying the practice violates its responsibilities as an occupying power.

LARGEST PLANS FOR HOMES IN OCCUPIED EAST JERUSALEM

In January 2015 leaders of Israel’s 1.7 million Arabs declare a general strike in protest at the recent deaths of two Bedouin men in confrontations with police. In March PM Netanyahu’s Likud party manages to defeat the centre-left Zionist Union opposition while an Israeli committee approves plans for eventual construction of 2,200 Palestinian homes in occupied east Jerusalem, in the largest such project since 1967. In April Palestinian President Abbas threatens to turn to the International Criminal Court over Israel’s refusal to fully release hundreds of millions of dollars in tax monies owed the Palestinian Authority. In May Israel’s Supreme Court rejects a petition by residents of a Bedouin village against their removal and the demolition of the community – in order to construct a new town for Jewish residents in its place.

In June 2015 the Palestinian unity government resigns in a deepening rift with Gaza as the territory’s de facto rulers Hamas hold separate, indirect talks with Israel. Meanwhile Israeli extremists torch Palestinian homes in a West Bank village killing an 18 month baby. In September Israeli police and Muslims clash at Jerusalem’s flashpoint Al-Aqsa mosque compound prompting Hamas to call for a “day of rage”. As tensions rise following attacks that killed 2 Israelis and wounded a child. Palestinians are barred from Jerusalem’s Old City. 77 Palestinians are reported wounded from both live rounds and rubber bullets.

FOLLOWING AL-AQSA INCIDENT VIOLENCE SURGES

On October 8 the violence surges – seven Israelis are stabbed in four separate incidents while the next day Israeli troops shoot dead 5 Palestinian protestors in Gaza. Numerous tit for tat stabbings ensue across the country in the following weeks. On October 10 Israeli security forces shoot dead 2 Palestinians aged 12 and 15. In all some 400 Palestinians are arrested in the first half of October. On October 14 Israel starts setting up roadblocks in Palestinian neighbourhoods in East Jerusalem and deploying soldiers across the country to combat a wave of Palestinian knife attacks. At least four Israeli cities, including Tel Aviv, temporarily ban Arab labourers from working in their schools as they struggle to calm public fears fuelled by the worst surge of Palestinian street attacks in years. At the end of October in Jordan US Secretary of State John Kerry and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas meet and voice hope for a resolution of the violence.

November and December 2015 sees almost daily attacks by Palestinians on Israelis. Israel’s lawmakers impose a minimum three-year jail sentence on stone throwers. Israeli troops raze the West Bank homes of four Palestinians accused of attacking Israelis, starting a controversial policy of punitive demolitions. In Hebron 19 Palestinians are hospitalized after being shot in clashes with Israeli security forces.

 AIR STRIKES FOLLOW MILITANT ROCKET ATTACKS ON ISRAEL

January 2016 starts with the Israeli air force carrying out attacks on Hamas sites in the Gaza Strip hours after rockets from the enclave hit southern Israel. A similar air attack happens mid month targeting a group of Palestinian militants placing explosives. Near daily attacks on Israeli civilians and security forces occur – many are stabbing attacks by young teenagers often girls. In February Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon announces Tehran would offer $7,000 to the families of each Palestinian killed in what he called the “Jerusalem intifada”. In March the UN Human Rights Council orders the compilation of a database of companies that operate in Israel’s West Bank settlements.

In May in response to mortar fire Israeli warplanes strike four new Hamas positions in the southern Gaza Strip. In June permits for 83,000 Palestinians to visit Israel are revoked while non-Muslims are barred from the contentious al-Aqsa mosque site. In July nearly 800 new Jewish settler homes in the occupied West Bank are approved drawing condemnation from Palestinian leaders and the UN. September sees a rush of stabbings mostly on Israeli security forces. In December EU diplomats report that Israel demolished 866 structures in 2016, leaving 1,221 Palestinians homeless, almost half of them children. While US President-elect Trump announces the new US ambassador to Israel, selecting an envoy who supports Israeli settlements, the UN Security Council passes a landmark resolution condemning Israeli settlements in east Jerusalem and the West Bank – after the US refrains from using its veto.

TRUMP SIDES WITH NETANYAHU ON EMBASSY MOVE

In January 2017 Palestinian leaders call for prayers at mosques across the Middle East to protest plans by President-elect Donald Trump to move the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. At the same time in France representatives from 70 countries meet in Paris to try to revive stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts. However neither Israel nor the Palestinians attend the conference. At the end of January Israel announces plans for 2,500 more settlement homes in the occupied West Bank in the confidence that President Trump has signalled he would be less critical of such projects than his predecessor. In February Israel’s parliament passes a new law legalizing dozens of Jewish outposts built on private Palestinian land – despite an appeal to Israel’s Supreme Court. At the same time President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu renew the US-Israel partnership and defy international pressure for a two-state solution to the longstanding conflict. Indeed a senior official states Washington would no longer insist that any peace deal lead to a recognized Palestinian state.

In April hundreds of Palestinians in Israeli jails begin a hunger strike in protest against poor conditions and the Israeli policy of detention without trial. Some 6.500 Palestinians are at the time in Israeli lockups. Thousands demonstrate in support. At the same time Israel’s Housing Ministry says it intends to build 15,000 new settlement homes in East Jerusalem. In May 2017 Hamas drops its long-standing call for Israel’s destruction amending its founding charter but its new leader pledges support for hunger-striking Palestinian prisoners and a general strike in solidarity. Despite this on May 27 the mass protest ends after Israel agree a deal. However the focus changes when in July attackers open fire near the Al-Aqsa mosque and are shot dead. Security forces lock down the area – a move Hamas describe as ‘religious war’ – and temporarily install metal detectors at the mosque compound after a weekend of violence leaves eight people dead.In August Israel’s PM Netanyahu vows never to evacuate Jewish settlement from occupied land – weeks later he approves plans taking the number to more than 2,600 homes.

In September as the cycle phase moves out of orb Palestinian human rights lawyers and activists hand a 700-page dossier to the International Criminal Court alleging that Israeli authorities are responsible for major crimes

The new Saturn-Neptune conjunction will come into orb on 1 July 2024 and will last until 2 March 2027. The exact hit is in February 2026. Among the issues that have been correlated with this cycle Climate Change is likely to be the key one – What will happen to this global issue between 2024 and 2027 ?

The Saturn-Neptune Quarter stage will take place in September 2033, the Halfway stage in January 2042 and the three quarter stage in April 2052