Israel/Palestine

The most pivotal of all world crises, acting as it does as the fulcrum between Islamic Fundamentalism and the West, between the Palestinian people and the Israelis.  5 Outer cycles seem to correlate with this crisis making analysis and forecasting very difficult. The cycle correlations active during 2015 are as follows:

SATURN/NEPTUNE (36 YEAR CYCLE) 1989 – 2026

CONJUNCTION Feb 1988 to Dec 1990

SUMMARY The cycle conjunction closely matches the beginning of a new drive to achieve the ideal of an independent Palestinian state. This happens on different levels. First, on the streets of the West Bank and Gaza protestors clash fiercely with Israeli forces. Second, the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) declares a Palestinian state – in time abandoning the call for the destruction of Israel and apparently renouncing terrorism. Yet, third, at the very same time the Hamas Islamic Brotherhood is founded which at this time clearly advocates the destruction of Israel. We would expect this mix of activation of ideals at the conjunction to be seriously challenged but advance at the time of the out square in 1999 and to maximise at the time of the opposition in 2009/2010.

see webpage for detailed analysis of:

FIRST INTIFADA

VIOLENCE BETWEEN PALESTINIANS

PLO NO LONGER CALLING FOR DESTRUCTION OF ISRAEL

OUTGOING SQUARE April 1998 to July 1999

SUMMARY Diplomatic and political developments in Palestine as the square comes into orb in 1998 appear promising. The Wye River Plantation talks in October 1998 result in an agreement for Israel to redeploy troops and release political prisoners. On the Palestinian side there is a renewed commitment to correct its violations of the Oslo accords including excessive police force, illegal arms and incitement to opposition in public media and education. The Wye River Memorandum signed on October 23 1998 is an agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Authority to implement the earlier Interim Agreement of September 1995. Note that the agreement is signed one week before the 2nd exact Out square date November 1st. In May 1999 while Yasser Arafat, the Palestine leader, wins EU backing for a state within a year and the support of President Clinton for self-determination, Israel elects Labor party leader Ehud Barak as Prime Minister in a landslide victory based on rapid progress toward peace.

see webpage for detailed analysis of:

WEST BANK LAND CEDED TO PALESTINIANS

OPPOSITION June 2006 to July 2008

SUMMARY In June 2006 the recently elected Hamas-led Palestinian government rejects a deadline to accept a proposal that implicitly recognizes Israel. At the same time Israel begins laying the foundations for Maskiot, a new Jewish settlement deep in the West Bank, breaking its promise on settlements to Washington. Hamas’s non-acceptance of Israel and the building of Jewish settlements on Palestinian territory will remain the key obstacles to peace negotiations throughout the cycle opposition. This all takes place against a backdrop of bitter infighting between Hamas and the rival Fatah movement and a surge in the number of Palestinian rockets fired into Israel inviting a regular Israeli airstrike response.

see webpage for detailed analysis of:

BITTER INFIGHTING BETWEEN HAMAS AND FATAH

ISRAEL RESPONDS TO KIDNAP WITH MAXIMUM FORCE

UN CALLS FOR END TO ISRAELI OPERATIONS IN GAZA STRIP

HAMAS FIGHT AGAINST FATAH MAXIMISES

ISRAEL TRIES TO SHORE UP PALESTINIAN PRESIDENT ABBAS

MILITANT ROCKET ATTACKS MET BY AIR STRIKES

HAMAS TO ACCEPT PALESTINIAN STATE IF PRE-1967 BORDERS

INCOMING SQUARE November 2014 to September 2017

SUMMARY This In square should see the mixed drive for independence, initiated at the Conjunction but blocked chiefly at the Opposition by Hamas’s non-acceptance of Israel and the building of Jewish settlements on Palestinian territory, undergo some alteration or re-definition. It may be that the change this drive undergoes in the shape of a new kind of formula will mean that a quite different peace deal may over the length of the subsequent cycle be implemented. Though it currently seems highly unlikely this 2 year period may be remembered as the time when a breakthrough emerges which unlike many others in the past will stand the test of time.

Exact hits are due on 27 Nov 2015, 18 June 2016, 10 Sept 2016

SATURN/PLUTO (38 YEAR CYCLE) 1982 – 2020

CONJUNCTION Oct 1981 to Oct 1983

SUMMARY This cycle appears to correlate with the restructuring of militant and fundamentalist anti-Israeli groups as well as the development of nearby mobile logistical bases and training camps for fundamentalist terrorists. A structural alteration in the Palestinian activist line up against Israel takes place when in 1982 Israel invades Lebanon in order to drive out Yasser Arafat’s Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), which has been using the country as a base for anti-Israeli operations. In September 1982 the PLO leaves Lebanon and in May 1983, under the terms of a US mediated peace agreement, Israeli forces also leave, though maintaining control over a 12-mile-wide ‘security zone’ in southern Lebanon near the Israeli border. But the exit of the PLO from Lebanon leads to the formation with Iranian assistance of Hezbollah, a far more militant Islamic group.

see webpage for detailed analysis of:

UNSTRUCTURED TERRORIST GROUPS GET MILITARY SUPPLY & TRAINING

OUTGOING SQUARE March 1992 to April 1994

SUMMARY In 1992 – 1994 a new peaceful solution challenges Palestinian militancy. This period sees an important peace agreement signed between Palestine and Israel in Washington together with the first plans for a Palestinian state. In August 1993 Israel’s Cabinet approves a framework for Palestinian autonomy in the occupied territories. In September 1993  PLO (Palestine Liberation Organization) leaders and Israel agree to recognize each other, clearing the way for the signing of the Oslo accord. The Oslo accord allows thousands of PLO guerrillas to return to Palestine without Israeli interference.

see webpage for detailed analysis of:

AT WHITE HOUSE PLO’S ARAFAT AND ISRAELI PM RABIN SIGN ACCORD

AS ISRAEL ATTACKS MILITANT GROUP LEADERS, HAMAS STRIKES BACK

ISRAEL STRIKES AT LEBANON TO ERADICATE HEZBOLLAH

JEWISH SETTLER KILLS 29 PALESTINIANS, HAMAS FIRST SUICIDE BOMB

OPPOSITION Aug 2000 to May 2003

SUMMARY There is little doubt that the Palestine issue enters a more violent and critical stage precisely in this period – indeed the key connection made by Al Qaeda fundamentalists between war against the US and Palestine liberation helps ensure this. However it is the frequency and ruthlessness of violence on both sides that marks out this period in this long running crisis. The frequency of terrorist and associated military actions in Palestine is at the outside rarely less than weekly, in certain periods it is quite clearly daily. And we are talking of a period of several years. To get an idea of this consider that between June 2001 and August 2002, ignoring any events that happened in Afghanistan with its US military invasion, there are more than 600 globally reported major terrorist incidents or government political/military responses to them. Of these about 280 (nearly half) are in Israel/Palestine. An analysis of the eruption of suicide bombings in Israel at this time shows that almost all of them occur within 10 degrees of the cycle opposition clustered around the three points when the cycle is exact.

see webpage for detailed analysis of:

ALMOST ALL SUICIDE BOMBINGS OCCUR WITHIN 10 DEGREES OF CYCLE OPPOSITION

THE SUICIDE BOMBINGS IN THIS PERIOD CLUSTER AROUND THE THREE POINTS WHEN THE CYCLE OPPOSITION IS EXACT

INCOMING SQUARE Nov 2008 to August 2011

SUMMARY It was the Israeli-forced exit of the PLO from Lebanon at the cycle conjunction that led to the formation of Hezbollah, a far more militarised group than the PLO. Conversely could it be the transformation of Hamas, the Palestinian militant group with the widest support, now in control of Gaza, into a partially political group that marks the beginning of the end of terrorist bombings in Palestine ? Though not a process that could develop without violence could this ultimately and paradoxically lead to the real turning point in Israeli/Palestine peace negotiations?

It has already been pointed out that after the cycle opposition suicide bombings virtually disappeared when Hamas called off attacks within Israel. In 2006 Hamas took control of Palestinian occupied territory – the Gaza strip. During this In square period we shall see Hamas propose and come close to enforcing a ban on using tunnels for smuggling across the Egyptian border and for a period a ban on any Gaza or West Bank militant group rocket firing rockets at Israel. Hamas has indicated, in agreement with Fatah, its readiness in principle to accept Israel and cease attacks in return for ceded territory along with other concessions  But will the Israeli administration be prepared to make these concessions.

see webpage for detailed analysis of:

FIVE MONTH TRUCE ENDS

OPERATION CAST LEAD

NEW HAWKISH ISRAELI ADMINISTRATION

CONCESSIONS AND NEW DEFENCES

ISRAELI COMMANDOS STORM AID FLOTILLA

SETTLEMENT BUILDING CONTINUES

NEW SATURN/PLUTO CYCLE 2020 – 2053

CONJUNCTION  Dec 2018 – Feb 2021

There is one Exact hit due on 12 January 2020

 

JUPITER/SATURN (20 YEAR CYCLE) 2000 – 2020

WEBSITE PAGES UNDER CONSTRUCTION

CONJUNCTION March 2000 – March 2001

ISRAEL WITHDRAWS FROM 6% OF WEST BANK AND FROM SOUTHERN LEBANON

THE 2nd INTIFADA BEGINS

UNSUCCESSFUL PEACE SUMMIT  AT CAMP DAVID IN USA

OUTGOING SQUARE Dec 2004 to Dec 2006

ROADMAP PHASE 1 ‘ENDING TERROR & VIOLENCE’ NEVER HAPPENS

ISRAEL FAILS TO FREEZE SETTLEMENT ACTIVITY

THE PALESTINE AUTHORITY CANNOT PREVENT MILITANT ATTACKS ON ISRAEL

ARIEL SHARON SECURES ISRAELI EXIT FROM GAZA BUT ALSO UNLEASHES FURIOUS ASSAULT ON LEBANON

HEZBOLLAH RESPONDS WITH ITS DEEPEST STRIKES YET INTO ISRAEL

HAMAS DOES NOT AGREE TO SHARON/ABBAS DECLARATION ON CESSATION OF ATTACKS

HAMAS KIDNAPS AN ISRAELI CORPORAL AND DEMANDS RELEASE OF 1,000 PRISONERS

ISRAELI ARMY TRANSFERS PORTION OF ISRAEL-LEBANON BORDER TO INTERNATIONAL TROOPS

OPPOSITION April 2010 to March 2012

MAXIMISATION OF CLASH OVER PEACE DEAL BETWEEN HARDLINE ISRAELIS AND DIVIDED PALESTINIANS

MAXIMISATION OF CLASH BETWEEN HAMAS AND FATAH – BUT ENDING IN RECONCILIATION DEAL

ISRAEL’S NAVAL ATTACK ON ‘HUMANITARIAN’ FLOTILLA CAUSES OUTRAGE

ISRAEL SIGNS OFF 1,600 HOME CONSTRUCTION IN ARAB EAST JERUSALEM

NETANYAHU SPELLS OUT RECOGNITION OF JEWISH STATE AS PRICE FOR STOPPING CONSTRUCTION ON WEST BANK

ISRAEL DEPLOYS NEW ROCKET DEFENCE SYSTEM

INCOMING SQUARE August 2014 to July 2016

There are 3 exact hits on Aug 3 2015, on March 23 2016 and on May 26 2016.

JUPITER/NEPTUNE (13 YEAR CYCLE) 2009 – 2022

WEBSITE PAGES UNDER CONSTRUCTION

CONJUNCTION March 2009 to Feb 2010

HAWKISH NETANYAHU, NEW ISRAELI LEADER, SAYS ISRAEL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD HOMES IN THE WEST BANK

HAMAS MAKES RARE CRITICISM OF PALESTINIAN ROCKET FIRE ON ISRAEL SAYING NOW IS THE WRONG TIME

ISRAELI & PALESTINIAN PEACE ACTIVISTS PRESENT 400 PAGE TIMETABLE REPORT

ISRAELI FORCES STORM JERUSALEM’S HOLIEST SHRINE TO DISPERSE VIOLENT PROTESTORS

HAMAS LEADER TELLS TENS OF THOUSANDS OF SUPPORTERS IT REMAINS COMMITTED TO ELIMINATION OF ISRAEL

NETANYAHU DECLARES ISRAEL WOULD RETAIN PARTS OF WEST BANK FOREVER

OUT SQUARE April 2012 to May 2013

UN AGENCIES & INTERNATIONAL AIDS GROUPS URGE ISRAEL TO END 5 YEAR GAZA BLOCKADE

MILITANTS FIRE UP TO 180 ROCKETS A WEEK AT ISRAEL – ISRAEL RESPONDS WITH UP TO 200 AIRSTRIKES

NETANYAHU VOWS TO CONTINUE BUILDING IN ARAB EAST JERUSALEM

EGYPT’S PRESIDENT MORSI MEDIATES A CEASE FIRE WHILE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD DENOUNCES PEACE PLAN

ISRAEL & TURKEY RESTORE FULL DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS BROKEN AFTER ISRAEL ATTACK ON AID FLOTILLA

OPPOSITION August 2015 to August 2016

There is one exact hit on Sept 17 2015.

JUPITER/PLUTO  (12 YEAR CYCLE) 2007 – 2020

WEBSITE PAGES UNDER CONSTRUCTION

CONJUNCTION March 2007 to Feb 2008

NEW UNIFIED PALESTINE GOVERNMENT BUT ISRAEL WON’T DEAL WITH IT

FIGHTING BETWEEN HAMAS AND FATAH LEADS TO 116 DEAD, IN RESPONSE ISRAELI TROOPS ROUND UP HAMAS LEADERS

ISRAEL TRIES TO SHORE UP PALESTINIAN PRESIDENT ABBAS FREEING PRISONERS AND TRANSFERRING TAX FUNDS

IN RESPONSE TO ROCKET ON ARMY BASE ISRAEL CUTS OFF GAZA’S POWER AND FUEL SUPPLIES

ON DEC 11 (EXACT CONJ DAY) ISRAELI PLANES, TANKS AND BULLDOZERS MOVE ONTO GAZA IN WIDEST OPERATION YET

ON DEC 27 ISRAELI PM OLMERT  AND PALESTINE LEADER ABBAS HOLD THEIR FIRST SUMMIT

OUT SQUARE May 2010 to April 2011

US MEDIATOR GEORGE MITCHELL RE-LAUNCHES PEACE NEGOTIATIONS

ISRAELI NAVAL COMMANDOS STORM AID FLOTILLA

ISRAEL AGREES TO EASE BLOCKADE OF GAZA STRIP AFTER UN PRESSURE

LEBANESE AND ISRAELI TROOPS IN MOST SERIOUS CLASH FOR 4 YEARS

PALESTINE SECURITY FORCES ARREST MORE THAN 250 HAMAS MEMBERS AFTER HAMAS KILLS 4 ISRAELIS

ISRAELI BILL REQUIRES NATIONAL REFERENDUM BEFORE ANY WITHDRAWAL  FROM EAST JERUSALEM OR GOLAN HEIGHTS

HEZBOLLAH MAY HAVE ACQUIRED AN ARSENAL OF 50,000 ROCKETS & MISSILES

ISRAEL DEPLOYS ITS NEW ‘IRON DOME’ ROCKET DEFENCE SYSTEM

OPPOSITION June 2013 to June 2014

ISRAEL CRACKS DOWN ON JEWISH EXTREMISTS WHO VANDALISED PALESTINIAN PROPERTY

EU BANS ANY FUNDING OF INSTITUTIONS OPERATING IN TERRITORIES OCCUPIED SINCE 1967 WAR

ISRAEL ANNOUNCES PLANS TO BUILD 1,400 NEW HOMES IN WEST BANK & EAST JERUSALEM

ISRAELI NAVY SEIZES SHIP CARRYING DOZENS OF OF ADVANCED IRAN-SUPPLIED ROCKETS

NETANYAHU RULES OUT PEACE DEAL UNLESS PALESTINIANS RECOGNISE JEWISH STATE & GIVE UP REFUGEES’ RIGHT OF RETURN

ISRAEL SAYS IT WILL NOT NEGOTIATE WITH A GOVERNMENT BACKED BY HAMAS

ISRAEL MAKES 300 ARRESTS WHILE SEARCHING FOR KIDNAPPED 3 TEENAGERS ONLY TO FIND THEM DEAD

IN SQUARE October 2016 to Sept 2017

The exact hits are on 7 August 2013, 31 January & 20 April 2014