Terrorism Statistics

WORLDWIDE FATALITIES

Does the rise and fall in global deaths from terrorism show a synchronistic (surge at key cycle stages) or truly cyclical (rise to peak at opposition then decline) correlation with the Saturn/Pluto cycle ?

First, does this period show a change in the number of deaths from terrorist violence in the rest of the world outside the countries we have covered ? Unfortunately while we can split off Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan from the world total in recent years and estimate the rise and fall in terrorist deaths there, it is not comparatively possible to do this with the rest of the world. We have to look at the overall picture covering all 72 countries where terrorism  has been noted as taking place. Focusing on these key countries and based on the US CounterTerrorism Centre’s (CTC) Worldwide Incidents Tracking system (WITS) almost 13,200 deaths from terrorism occurred in 2010. More than 75% of these took place in South Asia and the Near East. 97% took place in 15 countries which logged more than 50 deaths from terrorism. Besides the four countries we have been dealing with they are Somalia, India, DR Congo, Russia, Thailand, Colombia, Yemen, Philipiines, Sudan, Iran, Nigeria and Uganda.

GLOBAL TERRORIST DEATHS DECLINE AT CYCLE IN SQUARE

CTC states that although the number of attacks worldwide rose in 2010 by almost 5 percent over the previous year, the number of deaths declined for a third consecutive year, dropping 12 percent from 2009. Worldwide, excluding Iraq, there were 9,822 deaths in 2010, down from 11,656 in 2009 and 10,695 in 2008 and close to the 2007 figure of 9,107. This decline could just possibly be said to correlate with the cycle in square. Unfortunately CTC discontinued WITS in April 2012.

MAJOR TERRORIST INCIDENTS

One final assessment of the degree of correlation of fundamentalist terrorism with this cycle is to examine the frequency and scale of major terrorist bombings only. Throughout this website we have taken 50 deaths as a threshold at which major terrorist incidents start. However to shorten the long list this would produce we have raised that threshold to 100 deaths.

THE BOMBINGS WITH GREATEST FATALITIES ARE OFTEN CO-ORDINATED ATTACKS

We will exclude in transit airplane and long distance train bombings where it is the crash itself that produces most of the fatalities – inevitably these tend to have a very high death count. The list also excludes all actions where the military (official or rebel) or airforce play a central role and only covers bombings not shootings (unless an unquantified mix). Attacks by drug cartels are ignored. The following Table lists the year and month, the country, the number killed (excludes suicide bombers themselves but not other attackers) and where relevant the city or target group. The years where one of the cycle’s four stages is in orb are in RED

1983           October                Lebanon                    299

1984           NONE

1985           May                     Sri Lanka                   146

1985           November            Colombia                   100

1986           NONE

1987           April                     Sri Lanka                  110

1990           August                 Sri Lanka                   147

1991           NONE

1992           NONE

1993           March                   India                        257 (Mumbai)

1995           April                     USA                          168 (Oklahoma)

1995           June                     Russia                       172 (Stavropol)

1998           January                Algeria                       260* (Sidi Hamed)

1998           August                 Tanzania/Kenya          223 (US Embassies)

1999           September           Russia                        293 (Apartment bombs)**

2000           NONE

2001           August                 Angola                       252 (derailed train attack)

2001           September           USA                           2,973 (9/11 plane attacks

2002           May                     Colombia                   117

2002           October                Indonesia                  202 (Bali club bombings)

2002           October                Russia                      160 (Moscow Theatre)

2004           February              Iraq                           117 (Mosul)

2004           February              Singapore                  116 (SuperFerry)

2004           March                   Iraq                          106 (Karbala Shia shrine)

2004           March                   Spain                       191 (Madrid)

2004           September           Russia                      334 (Beslan school)

2006           July                      India                       209 (Trains in Mumbai)

2006           November            Iraq                         215 (Sadr City)

2007           January                Iraq                        131 (Baghdad Shia shrine

2007           February              Iraq                         135 (Baghdad Shia zone)

2007           March                   Iraq                       114 (Hilla Shiite pilgrims)

2007           March                   Iraq                       152 (Tal Afar Shia zone)

2007           April                     Iraq                       200 (Baghdad Shia zone)

2007           August                 Iraq                       796 (Yazidi communities)

2007           October                Pakistan                136 (Bhutto attack)

2008           October                Pakistan                113 (Orakzai)

2008           November            India                     173 (Mumbai)

2009           August                 Iraq                       101 (Baghdad Ministries)

2009           October                Iraq                      155 (Baghdad Green Zone)

2009           October                Pakistan                117 (Peshawar)

2009           December            Iraq                       127 (Baghdad Ministries)

2010           January                Pakistan                105 (Lakki Marwat)

2010           July                      Pakistan                105 (Mohmand Agency)

2012           January                Nigeria                  185 (Kano by Boko Haram

2012           May                     Yemen                   120 (Sanaa by al-Qaeda

2012           July                      Iraq                     116 (various cities)

2012           August                 Iraq                      128 (various cities)

2012           September           Iraq                      108 (various cities)

2013           January               Pakistan                 126 (Quetta)

* mid pont of AFP and Algerian Press figures

+ Source Iraqi Red Crescent

** Some analysts have suggested these were not terrorist attacks

The above yearly major incident figures show the following very qualified correlations:

INCONCLUSIVE

There is of course no exact correlation but there is an approximate pattern showing. At the 1983 conjunction there is an unprecedented fatality count for 2 Lebanon terrorist attacks – 241 American servicemen and 58 French troops. Then at the 1993 cycle Out square 257 are killed in Mumbai – the largest fatality count since the Lebanon bombings. 1998 and 1999 both have high figures** but at the 2001-2 cycle opposition, in addition to the huge 9/11 figures, 2002 shows the next highest year total of 479. The 2004 total of 864 and the Yazidi massacres of 2007 puts this pattern out of kilter. Yet most importantly at the time of writing after 2007 there are no figures above 185.