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exact in July & August 2010 and February 2011

IRAQ

SECTARIAN DIVIDE WIDENS

The 2007-8 Jupiter/Pluto conjunction had seen the most horrific scenes of violence in Iraq. How does this change at the Out square ? First it seems as if the sectarian divide widens. As the Out square comes into orb in May 2010 Iraq’s two main Shiite blocs seeking to govern the country sign an agreement that gives the final decision on all political disputes to top Shiite clerics – this further alienates Iraq’s Sunni minority, already feeling excluded by Shiite dominance and hoping that the recent election would boost their say in power. On May 10 mostly sectarian attacks kill 119 people across the country, the deadliest day in 2010. Al-Qaeda in Iraq’s new leader warns Shiites that “dark days soaked with blood” lie ahead and that a new campaign of attacks is under way. Within hours of the warning, a car bomb explodes outside a Shiite mosque south of Baghdad. This period also sees multiple attacks against the leaders of anti-insurgent Sunni forces known as Awakening Councils and the government backed Sahwa militia. In October gunmen wearing military uniforms raid the homes of anti-al-Qaeda Sunni fighters – whom they kill in an execution-style slaying near a town just south of Baghdad. Similar attacks take place in the following month.

ROBBERY SURGES

The second change is the rise of crime in Iraq in the form of robbery. At the end of May there are 2 major robberies. On 25 May 17 masked gunmen shoot up a gold jewelry market in Baghdad, killing 15 people before fleeing with a large quantity of gold. Three days later robbers steal $5.5 million from a bank near Najaf. On June 9 masked gunmen kill three jewellers in Basra before fleeing with a large amount of gold. On June 13 gunmen trying to rob the central bank in Baghdad battle security forces for hours after bombs rip through a nearby area killing 26. Later in June gunmen raid a jewelry shop in Fallujah, killing four people before fleeing. On August 5 gunmen storm a Baghdad money exchange killing three staff. October sees a spate of robberies. On one day a lethal gunfight takes place between security forces and armed groups attempting to rob Baghdad jewelry stores. On another day masked gunmen steal more than $27,000 in cash intended for university workers’ salaries. On a third day in northern Iraq thieves armed with guns and hand grenades storm a jewelry shop killing 10 people.

Despite heightened security, attacks continue on Shiite pilgrims and their mosques around religious holidays. In the three days leading up to the 1st exact Out Square July 25 there are three attacks on mosques. The 2nd exact Out Square is on August 3. On Aug 15 Sunni Muslims are gunned down as they leave a mosque in Jurf al-Sakhr, south of Baghdad. The day after the victims are four Shiite pilgrims. In December pilgrims in a town north of Baghdad are killed as millions of Shiites head to ceremonies to mark Ashura.

ATTACKS TARGET SECURITY FORCES

But it is attacks on security officials and the army that are the most frequent and that appear to now become more deadly – in August sixteen are killed in a brazen attack in the capital – the attackers fly the black al-Qaeda flag over the neighbourhood afterwards. Then on August 17 comes one of the most lethal suicide bombings – the bomber sits for hours among hundreds of army recruits before detonating nail-packed explosives strapped to his body, killing 61 people ! On August 25 a coordinated string of attacks are launched at government forces, also killing a similar number. Finally in January 2011 a suicide bomber blew himself up this time in a crowd of police recruits in Tikrit, killing at least 65 people. A similar attack this time on the army takes place in March.

CHRISTIANS ATTACKED

There is a third element of the population who are targeted. On October 31 an al-Qaeda attack on the Sayidat al-Nejat Syriac Christian cathedral (Our Lady of Salvation) in Baghdad leaves 68 people dead. On Nov 10 a sequence of lethal roadside bombs and mortar rounds hit Christian neighborhoods in Baghdad -repeated in December.

ISLAMIC STATE OF IRAQ (FORE-RUNNER OF ISIS) EMERGES

It is in October that  a new terrorist force seems to emerge. On November 2 Shiite Baghdad neighborhoods are targeted in a series of bombings and mortar strikes  – in total 91 people are killed and some 232 people wounded. It is a new group, the Islamic State of Iraq, an umbrella group that includes al-Qaeda in Iraq who claim responsibility. On 20 January 2011 56 people are killed and 175 wounded in triple suicide bombings at security checkpoints targeting pilgrims headed to the Shiite holy city of Karbala for rituals. A few days later car bombs strike Shiite pilgrims in Karbala, killing at least 26 people. On Jan 27 a car bomb rips through a funeral tent in a mainly Shiite area of Baghdad, killing 51 people. 44 Shiite pilgrims are killed in Samarra on Feb 10 and 12. It is not clear which exact grouping was responsible for these sectarian attacks – though it seems reasonable to assume it is the very same new umbrella group.

THE ‘ARAB SPRING’ HITS IRAQ BUT IS OVERTAKEN BY ISIS

On February 25, 3rd and final exact Out Square date, a new force enters the equation. In cities across the country, thousands of Iraqis march on government buildings and clash with security forces in the largest and most violent anti-government protests yet. The ‘Arab Spring’ has hit Iraq spreading from nearby Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. In March that popular wave will reach Syria. On what gets called the “Day of Rage” clashes between security forces and demonstrators in Mosul and the town of Hawija near Kirkuk leave 8 dead. It is across this very zone that ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) spreading across the Syrian border will expand its control. As if to confirm this at the end of March in northern Iraq gunmen wearing military uniforms and suicide bomb belts storm a government headquarters in Tikrit in an attempt to take hostages. 57 people are killed and 98 wounded. Running North of Baghdad Tikrit, Kirkuk and Mosul will later define the area under control of ISIS in mid 2015

AFGHANISTAN

The Conjunction coincided with an explosive surge in Taliban violence with NATO airstrikes causing extensive civilian casualties. How does this change at the Out Square? The key events in chronological order:  on July 26 some of the 91,000 secret US military documents on the Afghan war released by Julian Assange of Wikileaks include US intelligence reports alleging close connections between Pakistan’s spy agency and the Taliban; on August 11 the country’s Islamic clerics end a 3-day meeting calling on President Karzai to enact sharia or Islamic law; on Nov 20 2010 NATO nations meeting in Portugal formally agree to start turning over Afghanistan’s security to its military next year and give them full control by 2014.

TALIBAN ACTIVITY SURGES

There is an extension to Taliban violent acts – though the ISAF coalition manages to counter a surprising number of them. Unfortunately NATO’s reliance on airstrikes brings a surge in civilian casualties (see below). On May 19 insurgents launch a brazen pre-dawn assault on the giant US-run Bagram Air Field, killing an American contractor but ten militants are killed including 4 with suicide vests. On May 31 about 180 Taliban attack a police post in Farah province, triggering hours of fighting that kills over 15 insurgents. On June 7 Afghan special forces backed by US helicopter gunships battle insurgents for 12 hours in a remote Taliban-controlled region, killing 23 militants. On June 27 up to 150 Taliban insurgents are killed in battles along the Kunar border with Pakistan. On June 30 militants storm a major NATO air base outside Jalalabad – but 8 insurgents die in the failed assault.

(25 July 1st exact Out Square date) On August 2 coalition troops attack two villages in Nuristan province that had been held by Taliban fighters killing more than 30 insurgents. That same day a suicide car bomber blows himself up next to a police truck killing six children nearby (3 August 2nd exact Out Square date) On August 3 insurgents wearing suicide vests try to storm NATO’s largest base in the south, but fail to breach its defenses – all of the attackers are killed including several in suicide vests. On August 6 the bodies of 10 members of a medical team, including six Americans, are recovered. They had been shot and killed by militants as they were returning from providing eye treatment and other health care in remote villages. The Taliban claim it killed them for being “Christian missionaries.”  But do these events suggest a real surge in Taliban attacks? Yes on August 10 a UN report states that the number of civilians killed in the war jumped 25 percent in the first half of 2010 compared with the same period last year – with insurgents responsible for the spike.

On 19 August 25 security guards are killed in a clash with Taliban fighters. On August 24 NATO says Afghan and international forces have killed an estimated 40 Taliban fighters east of Kabul. On August 28 in eastern Afghanistan 30 Taliban militants, some dressed in US military uniforms, are killed after launching pre-dawn attacks at NATO Forward Operating Base Salerno and nearby Camp Chapman. On October 1 NATO announces it has detained at least 438 suspected militants over the last month. On Oct 23 in western Afghanistan a suicide car bomber and three armed militants wearing explosives vests and dressed as women attack a UN compound, but Afghan security forces kill the attackers. On November 7 Afghan and NATO forces target insurgent strongholds in Kandahar province killing 15 and capturing 13. On Nov 13 in eastern Afghanistan suicide bombers try to storm a major NATO base on the edge of Jalalabad city, but are repelled. – 6 insurgents are killed, including two wearing suicide vests. On Nov 21 ISAF says more than 20 militants were killed in air strikes and fighting. On Dec 18 eastern Afghanistan NATO troops kill more than 20 insurgents in fighting.

On January 7 2011 a Taliban suicide bomber in Spin Boldak assassinates a police commander and kills 16 others at a public bath. On January 28 another suicide bomber kills 9 people inside a high-end grocery store in the heart of a heavily guarded district of Kabul, home to many diplomats and Westerners. On February 12 more suicide bombers kill 19 people in an assault on Kandahar city police headquarters. On Feb 19 in eastern Afghanistan gunmen and suicide bombers dressed as border police kill 38 people in an attack on a bank in Jalalabad. On Feb 21 a suicide bomber blows himself up at the entrance to a government office in Kunduz province, killing 30 people, many waiting in line to obtain government identification cards. (25 Feb 3rd exact Out square date)

NATO AIRSTRIKES CAUSE MORE CIVILIAN CASUALTIES

On May 13 2010 three dozen insurgents are killed after two days of joint NATO and Afghan operations – but at the same time hundreds of protesters brandish sticks, throw stones and burn an American flag as they accuse NATO forces of killing many civilians in an overnight raid. On July 23, the day a bomb explodes inside a mosque it is reported that 45 civilians, many of whom are women and children, have been killed in a NATO rocket attack. (July 25 is the first exact Out Square date) On August 4 NATO operations kill as many as 26 civilians.  (August 3 is the second exact Out Square date) On August 12 in eastern Afghanistan a crowd of about 300 villagers yell “Death to the United States” and block a main road as they swear that US forces had killed three innocent villagers. On September 2 President Karzai says 10 Afghan civilians were killed in a NATO air strike on three vehicles carrying election campaign workers in the north. On December 11 a NATO air strike kills seven road construction employees – the incident sends hundreds pouring onto the streets of Gardez in a protest that turns violent. On February 27 Afghanistan’s government says that its investigations have found NATO killed 65 civilians, many of them children, during recent operations in a northeastern militant stronghold.  A few days later 9 young children collecting firewood die after an insurgent rocket attack on a military base prompts coalition forces to return fire.

ATTACKS ON SCHOOLS

Just days before the Out Square comes into orb 36 girls became sick at a school in Kunduz province and are hospitalised. Another 47 had complained of dizziness and nausea the day before. A strange odor in their classrooms, prompted an investigation into whether they were targeted by militants who oppose education for girls. The local health official suspects it was the result of a poison gas attack. On May 11  four teachers and nine students are taken to hospital after a bomb goes off at a boys’ school in the Khost province. On May 30 men using rocket-propelled grenades and bombs blow up a barely completed school in Khost province built with international aid at a cost of $220,000. On 28 Aug 48 schoolgirls, boys, and teachers are hospitalized in a case of suspected poisoning caused by an unidentified chemical substance. On Sept 1 the Afghan Health Ministry said blood samples taken from Afghan schoolgirls who collapsed in apparent mass poisonings showed traces of toxic chemicals found in herbicides, pesticides and nerve gas. On Nov 7 2010 gunmen set fire to the girls’ middle school in Laghman province, burning the entire structure and its contents.

NEGOTIATIONS WITH TALIBAN ?

On June 4 2010 a national peace conference urges the government to take formal steps toward negotiating with insurgents, boosting President Karzai’s plans to open talks with the Taliban. On September 4 President Karzai says an Afghan peace council to pursue talks with the Taliban has been set up. On October 6 it is reported that the President has begun those secret talks and sources say that for the first time Taliban representatives are fully authorized to speak for the Quetta Shura, the Afghan Taliban organization based in Pakistan, and its leader Muhammad Omar. On October 14 Afghan officials request NATO’s support in facilitating these peace efforts, including by halting military operations in areas where reconciliation talks may take place. A few days later three Taliban leaders secretly meet with the President – it appears with the principal aim of weakening the Haqqani network, a rival enemy to the coalition. However on November 15 Taliban leader Mullah Omar issues a statement that reports of peace talks between militants and the Afghan government are “misleading rumors”. On April 16 2011 President Karzai and Pakistani PM Yusuf Raza Gilani agree to boost joint peace efforts with the Taliban.

THE WORST HORRORS

On June 9 2010 a twelve year-old suicide bomber detonates his vest at a wedding party for a family with ties to police in the Taliban’s heartland in Kandahar province, killing over 40 people. On July 21 insurgents behead six policemen after attacking their checkpoint in Baghlan province. On August 9  Bibi Aisha, a young Afghan woman whose nose and ears were sliced off last year to punish her for running away from her violent husband, gains worldwide attention when she appears on the cover of the prestigious Time magazine. On October 8 in northern Afghanistan the Kunduz provincial governor and at least 19 other people are killed by a massive bomb blast inside a packed mosque during Friday prayers. On March 14 a suicide bomber posing as an army volunteer strikes an Afghan army recruitment center in Kunduz province, killing 35 volunteers.

PAKISTAN

PRESIDENT ZARDARI ADOCATES ATTACKS RATHER THAN DIPLOMACY

The Conjunction saw the assassination of Benazir Bhutto soon after lead to the removal of Pervez Musharraf as President. Now President Asif Ali Zardari, the man who had spearheaded the coalition which forced Musharraf to resign, is in the middle of his 2008 to 2013 presidency. Diplomatic relations with Afghan President Karzai have improved after Musharraf’s departure and with Zardari’s rise to power. In September 2010, Zardari and Afghan President Karzai meet in Islamabad and both advocate fighting insurgents rather than trying to end the war with diplomacy. Could this be the key development ?

However shortly after the Out Square comes into orb on June 13 the London School of Economics issues a new research report saying Pakistan’s main spy agency continues to arm and train the Taliban and is even represented on the group’s leadership council – despite US pressure to sever ties and billions in aid to combat the militants. These are allegations that never seem to lose their force. On September 1 the US government designates the Pakistani Taliban a terrorist group and accuses its leader, Hakimullah Mehsud, of being behind a suicide bombing that killed 7 Americans at a CIA post in eastern Afghanistan.

Despite the Pakistan’s President advocating joint military aims, on September 30 Pakistani troops fire warning shots at NATO helicopters, which respond with a pair of missiles that destroy an army post, killing 2 soldiers. Pakistan retaliates by blocking a vital supply route for US and NATO troops in Afghanistan. A few days later the US apologizes for the deaths of the Pakistani paramilitary troops and subsequently the 10 day blockade is lifted – during that period 150 NATO trucks are destroyed by gunmen. It is difficult to make sense of these events. In April 2011 as the Out Square ends Pakistan’s army chief General Parvez Kayani announces that his forces have broken the “backbone” of Islamist militants in the country. Can this be really true ?

US DRONES PLAY KEY MOVE

So how does the battle inside Pakistan against Islamic militancy fare during this eleven month period ? Pakistani troops, jets and helicopters gunships allied to US drone airstrikes at first sight appear to match the Pakistani general’s claim. The role of US drone aircraft cannot be understated – on each of the dates below US drone aircraft are reported to have targeted and killed militants – these strikes multiply exactly in this period – though they continue long past the end of the cycle stage. They are at their most frequent in September and November 2010 midway through the Out Square period.

2010

May 3, May 9, May 11, May 15, June 11, June 19, June 27, June 30, July 24,[July 25 1^st exact hit) (Aug 3 2^nd exact hit) Aug 21, Sept 8, Sept 9, Sept 14, Sept 19, Sept 20, Sept 25, Sept 26, Sept 27, Sept 28, Oct 2, Oct 6, Oct 13, Oct 27, Nov 1, Nov 3, Nov 7, Nov 13, Nov 16, Nov 19, Nov 22, Nov 26, Dec 6, Dec 10, Dec 16, Dec 17, Dec 27, Dec 28, Dec 31

2011

Jan 1, Jan 18, Jan 23, Feb 21, Feb 24, (Feb 25 3^rd exact hit) March 8, March 11, March 13, March 17 (42 killed) , April 13, April 22

Pakistani troops and occasionally fighter jets kill sizeable numbers of militants especially in May and June 2010. Militant successes against NATO are chiefly against their vehicles and oil tankers but militant bomb attacks are considerably more lethal especially on August 3 in Karachi, September 7 in Kohat and October 17 in Karachi and on March 8 2011 in Faisalabad when dozens are killed in each attack.

SUICIDE ATTACKS SURGE

However it is suicide attacks which raise the carnage nearer to the level of of Iraq. Some 30 reported suicide bombings killing around 700 people take place on the following dates (fatalities and target where known in brackets):

2010

May 1 (5 at Swat), May 18 (11) , July 1 (42 at Muslim shrine), July 5 (1), July 9 x 2 bombers (102), July 15 (5), July 20 x 3 (0), [July 25 1^st exact hit) (Aug 3 2^nd exact hit) Aug 23 (26 at Mosque), Sep 3 (35 at Shiite procession) , Sep 3 (65 in Quetta), Sep 6 (19), Sep 9 (3), Oct 7 (8 at Sufi shrine, Nov 5 (65 at Peshawar mosque), Dec 6 (43 at Mohmand), Dec 8 (15 at Kohat), Dec 10 (10 at Shiite hospital) , Dec 25 (45 Salarzai tribe),

2011

Jan 25 (12 Lahore & Karachi), Feb 10 (31 Army Recruits), (Feb 25 3^rd exact hit) March 3 (10), March 9 (36 at Funeral), Mar 30 (10 Swabi), Mar 31 (13 at Charsadda) , April 3 (44 at Sufi shrine 4), April 4 (7 at Bus station)

These suicide attacks are matched by frequent attacks on girls schools especially in border tribal districts where 90 schools have been destroyed

NORTHERN IRELAND

Though the days of crises in Northern Ireland may be thought long gone, the longterm and very close relationship of the Jupiter//Pluto cycle with this country always merits analysis.

THE ‘BLOODY SUNDAY’ INVESTIGATION BLAMES BRITISH SOLDIERS

The undoubted key match with this Out Square stage comes on June 15 just 10 days before the 1^st Exact Out square date when an epic 12-year investigation into Northern Ireland’s biggest mass killing by British soldiers reaches its climax as relatives of the 13 Catholic demonstrators killed on “Bloody Sunday” begin reading a 5,000-page report into why the 1972 slaughter happened. (The January 30th 1972 massacre took place 15 days before an earlier Jupiter/Pluto 1st Exact Out Square), The investigation concludes that British troops were entirely to blame for the killings.

IRA DISSIDENT BOMBS

IRA dissidents have not accepted the Good Friday peace solution. On August 3, the very day of the 2nd exact Out Square, IRA dissidents detonate a bomb in a hijacked taxi outside a police base in Londonderry, damaging buildings but wounding no one. On Oct 10 another dissident IRA car bomb damages a hotel, bank and other businesses but causes no injuries. Days earlier one dissident had received a 20-year prison sentence for trying to buy guns and explosives. On October 8 police on both sides of the Irish border arrest over 15 dissidents and seize weapons and bomb components. On Oct 11 Irish police, uncover a major arms and explosives cache hidden in a wood in County Louth.  On Oct 30 police seize a dissident IRA bomb packed into a beer keg in an area close to Belfast International Airport. On April 9 2011, a week after a Catholic police officer is killed by a bomb placed under his car in Omagh, a 500-pound van bomb is diffused near the border town of Newry. This sequence of ordinance finds and bombs not causing casualties is seen an a significant blow to dissident republicans

Compare these 11 months with the following three and a half years from April 2011 to October 2014. Between September 2011 and January 2012 there are just 2 bombs – defused and no casualties. In December 2012 and March 2013 there are two further defused bombs

ISRAEL/PALESTINE

PEACE NEGOTIATIONS

On May 1, as the Out Square comes into orb, Arab nations endorse indirect peace talks between the Palestinians and Israelis. On May 3 the leaders of Israel and Egypt meet to discuss the renewal of the Middle East peace process. On May 5 US mediator George Mitchell after a break of more than a year launches the peace negotiations between a hard-line Israeli government and a Palestinian administration in control of only part of its territory. On July 6 President Obama meets with Israel’s PM Netanyahu – Netanyahu pledges concrete, “very robust” steps to revive the peace efforts.

On September 2 Israeli and Palestinian leaders meet in Washington and clear the first hurdle in the negotiations, vowing to try to settle core differences within a year. On September 12 Israeli PM Netanyahu reiterates his demand for the Palestinians to recognize Israel as a Jewish state. On October 9 Palestinian President Abbas urges Arab leaders to press the United States to recognize a unilateral declaration of statehood should peace talks with Israel collapse.

Then on October 11 the Israeli government endorses a controversial bill requiring a national referendum be held before any withdrawal from occupied east Jerusalem or the Golan Heights. PM Netanyahu spells out recognition of Israel as a Jewish state as his price for a renewal of a ban on construction in the occupied West Bank. The offer gets rejected out of hand by the Palestinians, who say it has “nothing to do with the peace process.”

On January 24 Israel’s foreign minister confirms he has drawn up a plan for the creation of an interim Palestinian state with temporary borders in the absence of a full peace agreement, That same day Palestinian protesters riot when Al-Jazeera TV airs what it says are leaked documents showing that Palestinian leaders had agreed to deep concessions on two of the thorniest issues in negotiations with Israel: Jerusalem and the fate of Palestinian refugees. On March 8 further offence is caused when Israeli PM Netanyahu vows that Israeli troops would remain on the border between Jordan and the West Bank under any future peace deal with the Palestinians.

On April 6 2011 as the Out Square goes out of orb, a group of prominent Israelis, many of them former defence chiefs, launch a new peace plan calling for the establishment of a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital. At the 2013-2014 Opposition stage it seems likely that such a plan will encounter further obstacles as the hard-line Israeli administration maximizes the restrictions it has imposed on any peace deal

JEWISH SETTLEMENTS

The  issue of Israel authorizing Jewish settlements on land planned to be part of any independent Palestine surges at the Out Square. At the end of April 2010 Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s insists publicly that settlement building in East Jerusalem would not be stopped in the face of US pressure and on May 10 Israel confirms it will press ahead with these plans. In September Israel reiterates its refusal to extend curbs on settlement building that have reached expiration point despite US pressure and Palestinian threats to walk out of peace talks.

In October Israel signs off on the construction of 238 homes in east Jerusalem, bringing an end to an unofficial building freeze in the traditionally Arab sector of the city. Then to add to the situation work begins on 600 new homes in the largely Palestinian West Bank. Palestinian President Abbas states he will only resume talks once building restrictions are re-imposed, arguing there is no point negotiating while Israel continues to build on land the Palestinians want for a future state.

When in in November 2010 Israel says it is moving ahead with plans to build 1,300 new apartments in disputed east Jerusalem, President Abbas threatens to dissolve the Palestinian Authority. Then in January 2011 Palestinians are enraged when Israeli authorities say they are moving ahead with a fresh proposal to build 1,400 apartments in the contested part of Jerusalem and in February the municipal council signs off on the first phase of their construction.

HAMAS & FATAH

Hamas’s position in the peace equation appears both threatening and positive – threatening because the militant rocket attacks against Israel which have partly held up the peace process lie largely under its control but positive in that if Hamas were to agree to a peace deal it would surely have a better chance of being agreed to by the majority of Palestinian militants. And during these 11 months as a move in that direction Hamas and Fatah begin a process of reconciliation.

But it starts badly when on May 6 Palestinian President Abbas accuses Hamas of smuggling large amounts of weapons into the West Bank as part of the militant group’s efforts to undermine his administration. Hamas is exercising its authority in a number of non military ways. On May 16 Hamas police wielding clubs beat and push residents out of dozens of homes in the southern Gaza town of Rafah before knocking the buildings down with bulldozers. On May 18 Hamas rulers execute 3 convicted killers dropping their bullet-riddled bodies at a hospital. On July 17 Hamas bans women from smoking water pipes in cafes, calling it a practice that destroys marriages and sullies the image of the Palestinian people. But Hamas military side is far from inactive – on August 2 a string of rockets are fired at the Israeli resort of Eilat by a Hamas group operating from Egypt’s Sinai desert.

On September 1 Palestinian security forces arrest more than 250 Hamas members in an overnight sweep throughout the West Bank after Hamas claims responsibility for shooting dead four Israelis on the eve of new Middle East peace talks. Later two of the Hamas gunmen are killed by Israeli troops. On October 20 Jewish settlers set fire to a girls school near the city of Nablus. On the same day a powerful explosion rips through a Hamas military compound in the Gaza Strip, wounding a dozen people. On Nov 3 a car explodes outside Hamas police headquarters in Gaza’s, killing a Palestinian militant. Yet on November 9 representatives of Hamas and the Fatah party start reconciliation talks in Damascus – though there is evidence of indirect attempts by Israel to undermine those talks.

The more positive moves continue in November when in the run-up to the Muslim festival of Eid Hamas orders the release of 284 prisoners. Moreover in January 2011 Hamas urges militants to halt their attacks, saying that continued violence will only invite Israeli reprisals – the other militant factions do agree to a period of calm. On March 15 thousands of Palestinians throng major squares in the Gaza Strip and West Bank to deliver an impassioned appeal to their leaders to end the long-running feud between Hamas and Fatah. On March 19, following an Israeli rocket strike on a Hamas training ground in Gaza, Palestinian militants fire 54 rockets into Israel, the heaviest barrage in two years. Which way will Hamas move at the cycle opposition stage in 2013-14 ?

exact in June & September 2010 and January 2011

This cycle appears to continue from the last Jupiter/Uranus cycle the correlation with Space Exploration, Computer viruses, Cloning, Genetics, Nuclear Radiation. Fuel Cell, Fusion Power, Robotics, Nanotechnology and Theoretical Physics which as cutting-edge technologies look set to continue to provide some of the most revolutionary advances of the 21^st century. However as we can only see what is at the conjunction stage some of these may fail to meet the expected criteria for the remaining stages of the cycle. We have tried hard to pinpoint the totally innovative breakthroughs in science or technology over this cycle that will have outstanding long term significance – our best guess is some unexpectedly dramatic result from the Large Hadron Collider in its 17 miles tunnel some 500 feet (175m) beneath the Franco-Swiss border.

SPACE EXPLORATION

NASA TO VISIT AN ASTEROID RATHER THAN MOON & MARS

Early in 2010, President Obama announces a proposal to cancel the funding for NASA’s Constellation programme to send astronauts first to the international space station, then to the Moon and afterwards to Mars. But on April 15 2010, just two weeks after the Jupiter/Uranus conjunction first comes into orb, he announces changes to the proposal in a major space policy speech at Kennedy Space Center – he backs continued development of the Orion Multi purpose Crew vehicle capsule, albeit in a more limited role, and confirms 2015 as the date for construction of the space launch system (SLS). He also sets a goal for NASA to visit an asteroid by 2025. In September 2010 NASA announces that it has selected the design of the Space Launch System.

The plan to visit an asteroid is more complex than it sounds. Asteroids are minor planets that orbit the sun – many are located in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. There are some 9,000 asteroids whose orbit takes them near earth – of which perhaps 1,000 have a diameter of over one kilometre while most can be measured in metres. The chosen asteroid, ideally measuring 7 metres across with a mass of 500,000 kilograms (550 tons), would be captured by a spacecraft (NASA’s Space Launch System) using a deployable capture bag. Once secured, the spacecraft would steer the mass toward a region of gravitational stability known as the Earth-moon Lagrangian (EML2) point. This ‘gravitational island’ is reportedly a possible location for a lunar farside space station — in theory if an asteroid can be stabilised there, a manned outpost could even use its resources to sustain itself.

Once the captured asteroid is in a stable orbit within our Earth-Moon system it can be visited by astronauts who can conduct detailed scientific tests – both to obtain general scientific data about our solar system and for data that will specifically help a manned mission to another asteroid or planet. The asteroid capture-then-visit project is not due to take place till 2021 – though some analysts have forecast it could launch as early as 2017 – which would persuasively place it at the opposition stage of this Jupiter/Uranus cycle – in orb from November 2016 through to November 2017.

The NASA Authorization Act moves the programme’s objective away from a moon base and more towards a Near-Earth asteroid mission as a stepping stone to an eventual Mars landing. If space exploration correlates with this 14 year cycle then this implies that the April re-definition of NASA’s aims will be tested at the out square in 2013 but get maximised at the opposition in 2016.

SPACEX FIRST COMMERCIALLY OPERATED SPACECRAFT TO REPLACE SHUTTLE

But in 2010 the key issues concern the re-supplying of the International Space Station (ISS) which NASA sees as fundable at least up to 2020. A key question is what will take the place of the shuttle ? On June 4 Falcon 9, a SpaceX test rocket, blasts off on its maiden voyage and reaches orbit. NASA hopes to use this rocket to resupply the ISS. On December 8 2010 the US Falcon 9 rocket launches from Cape Canaveral with an unmanned prototype of the Dragon spacecraft, both developed under a NASA contract by SpaceX. Three hours and twenty minutes after lift-off, Dragon successfully splashes down in the Pacific Ocean. It becomes the first commercially-built and operated spacecraft ever to be recovered successfully from orbit. Its appearance at the conjunction suggests its future is assured.

On Jan 22 a Japanese rocket carries supplies to the ISS. On March 9 2011, the day the Jupiter/Uranus conjunction goes out of orb, the US space shuttle Discovery lands at Kennedy Space Center completing its 39th and final voyage. May 16 2011 (Endeavour) and July 8 (Atlantis) are the last two expeditions (both out of orb).

RUSSIA & CHINA & IRAN SPACE TESTS

Space Exploration is not the prerogative of the US. A hectic launch rate puts Russia well ahead of the US, and its Soyuz rocket – with its vital transport role to and from the ISS – gets a brand new launch pad in Korou, French Guinea. But the end of the cycle conjunction sees the beginning of a disastrous 12 months for the Russian space industry starting with the failure of three Glonass navigation satellites in December and Geo-IK-2 in Feb 2011.

The significance of other test spaceflights in this period is less clear. On October 1 2010 China launches Chang’e-2 into a 100-kilometre orbit around the Moon to prepare for a lunar landing at some date in the future. On Oct 10 Virgin Galactic’s space tourism rocket, SpaceShip Two, achieves its first solo glide flight – manned by two pilots it flies for 11 minutes before landing in California. On Dec 3 2010 US Air Force’s secrecy-shrouded X-37B unmanned spaceplane returns to Earth after more than seven months in orbit on a classified mission. On Feb 7 2011 Iran unveils four new domestically produced “research” satellites as part of a space programme that’s beginning to worry other nations.

KEPLER EXOPLANETARY MISSION MAY HAVE KEY SIGNIFICANCE

Developments in exploration outside our solar system at this time give little clue as to what the cycle might bring. On May 21 2010 Japan launches the Akatsuki (Planet-C) orbiter and the IKAROS solar-sailing probe toward Venus. On 15 June 2010, the Kepler exoplanetary mission releases its first data to the public on all but 400 of the 156,000 planetary target stars  – 706 targets from this first data set have viable exoplanet candidates, with sizes ranging from as small as the Earth to larger than Jupiter. On July 10 the European Rosetta spacecraft flies at a distance of 3,126 kilometers from the asteroid Lutetia.

On Feb 2 2011 NASA scientists report that the Kepler spacecraft has found over 1,200 possible planets with at least 54 of them within their suns’ habitable zones. Will further discoveries of new planets mark the remaining 3 stages of this cycle ? On March 18 2011, just as the Jupiter/Uranus conjunction moves out of orb, the NASA robotic MESSENGER space probe (MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry and Ranging) achieves orbital insertion around the planet Mercury. MESSENGER’s orbit is highly elliptical – to shield the probe from the heat radiated by Mercury’s hot surface – taking it to within 200 kilometres of Mercury’s surface and then 15,000 km away from it every twelve hours.

COMPUTERS – VIRUSES & TABLETS

In April 6 2010 researchers from IWM (Information Warfare Monitor) uncover a ‘complex cyber-espionage’ network which penetrated various organisations including the United Nations, the Embassy of Pakistan in the US and the Office of the Dalai Lama. The attacks are thought to originate in the city of Chengdu in China. “An important question to be entertained is whether the Chinese administration will take action to shut the Shadow network down,” say the researchers who point out that the network – known as a botnet – exploits social networking and cloud computing platforms including Google, Baidu, Yahoo, and Twitter to infect computers with malicious software or malware.

STUXNET

On June 17 2010 Stuxnet, a Windows trojan, gets detected. It is the first computer worm to attack SCADA systems – industrial control systems. There are suggestions that it was designed to target Iranian nuclear facilities and as to which countries might have been interested in disabling such facilities. On Sept 15 the virus called Kenzero appears, a virus that spreads online from Peer to peer (P2P) sites taking browsing history. In April 2011 a SpyEye and Zeus merged code is seen as new variants attack mobile phone banking information.

It is in March 2010 that ‘Banker Trojans’ that empty a users account start to proliferate. The Trojan unwittingly downloaded presents the user with fake login screens that mimic your bank’s website, intercepting your credentials and feeding them to a remote server.

iPad

Meanwhile what has happened to Computer Tablets ? On April 3 2010, two days after the new cycle conjunction comes into orb, the first Apple iPad is released. The user interface is built around the device’s multi-touch screen, including a virtual keyboard. The iPad has built-in Wi-Fi and, on some models, cellular connectivity. It can shoot video, take photos, play music, and perform Internet functions such as web-browsing and emailing. Other functions such as games, reference, GPS navigation, social networking, etc. can be enabled by downloading and installing extra applications – the App Store offers over half a million apps by Apple and third parties.

The iPad 2 released on March 25 2011, just before the cycle conjunction goes out of orb, adds a dual core Apple A5 processor and VGA front-facing and 720p rear-facing cameras. The whole tablet computer market gets completely reinvigorated by the Apple iPad device in 2010. Apple’s attention to detail for the touch interface is considered a milestone in that it defines the tablet computer as a new class of portable device – different from a laptop PC or netbook. The iPad has been characterized by some as a tablet computer that mainly focuses on media consumption such as web browsing, email, photos, videos, and e-reading, even though Microsoft compatible software for word processing, spreadsheets, and presentations were also released. In March 2011 Apple announces that 15 million iPads have been sold in three quarters of 2010

 SMARTPHONES

By 2010, though the Apple iPhone has a market share of only 4% of all cell phones, it generates more than 50% of the total profit from global cell phone sales. In the period at the centre of this conjunction – July to October 2010 – Apple sells 14.1 million iPhones surpassing those of Research in Motion’s 12.1 million BlackBerry units sold in their most recent quarter. In the US market the iPhone becomes the most popular single device. By March 2 2011, just before the conjunction goes out of orb, Apple announces it has sold 100 million iPhones worldwide and becomes the largest mobile handset vendor in the world by revenue in 2011, surpassing long-time leader Nokia.

Smartphones are on their way to provide a significant section of mobile users with a truly integrated mobile phone and portable computer. Their functionality extends to portable media players, low-end compact digital cameras, pocket video cameras, and GPS navigation units. Smartphones increasingly include high-resolution touchscreens and web browsers which display standard web pages as well as mobile-optimized sites.

GENETICS – cloning

On 4 August 2010 the UK Food Standards Agency (FSA) announces that meat from the offspring of a cloned cow was eaten in the UK. Two bulls from the embryos of a cow cloned in the US were bought by a farm near Nairn in the Scottish Highlands, and meat from one was sold to consumers. American biotechnology companies are cloning animals that give high yields of milk and meat to use as breeding stock. However contrary to earlier reports the cows had not been used for milk production. The European parliament only recently voted in favour of a ban on cloned meat and products in the European food supply.

The UK Food Standards Authority’s chief Tim Smith tells the BBC his organisation does not know how many embryos from cloned animals have been imported into the UK, despite cattle tracing schemes being in place. More worryingly Holstein UK, Europe’s largest independent breed society confirms that three bulls bred from the US produced clone had sired 97 calves in total. To cap it all a few days later a US cloning company states that some of the cattle cloned in the US to boost food production have been created from the cells of dead animals. “What we are doing is to find that animal that created that great steak…and once we have it, reproduce it”

At the end of November 2010 the UK Advisory Committee on Novel Foods & Processes states that meat and milk from cloned cattle are safe to consume. But EU proposed restrictions have led some European farmers to believe they are being put at a disadvantage by being denied the option of using the technology. However critics say there are strong ethical and animal welfare reasons to ban its use in European agriculture. One organic association says “…we have no long-term evidence for the impacts on health.”

GENETICS – stem cells

HEART, LIVER & KIDNEY REPLACEMENT APPLICATIONS

While human embryos were originally seen as the prime source of ‘pluripotent’ cells, those with the potential to form virtually any tissue type, scientists are increasingly finding ways to isolate proactive cells from adults and encourage them to multiply. Human veins left over from now common bypass surgery could be a source of master cells to help treat damaged heart muscle, say scientists. On 24 April 2010 a University of Bristol team extracts stem cells from the veins, then uses them to stimulate new blood vessel growth in mice,

On 13 June 2010 US scientists in Massachusetts, USA succeed in creating working liver grafts in the laboratory, and say the research could one day allow the growth of livers for transplant. There is a shortage of liver donors but so far it has been difficult to grow replacement organs. On 17 June 2010 Canadian and Thai scientists warn that a new complication has been seen in a patient who received stem cell therapy for kidney disease. Stem cells were injected into the kidney, but the patient suffered tissue damage and died from an infection. It appears that clusters of blood vessels and bone marrow cells had caused tissue damage. On 24 July 2010 a team at Oxford University announces that specially manipulated skin cells, called ‘induced pluripotent’ stem cells, can be used to generate the brain nerve cells that die in Parkinson’s disease.

HIP, SHOULDER & KNEE REPLACEMENT APPLICATIONS

On 13 July 2010 an Oxford University team launches a study to take skin cells from 1,000 patients with early stage Parkinson’s disease and turn them into nerve cells carrying the disease in order to learn more about the brain disorder. On 29 July 2010 US researchers develop a promising new technique that could one day enable doctors to regrow broken or diseased joints in patients. They succeed in regrowing the forelimb thigh joint of rabbits using their own stem cells. Scientists say they have shown ‘proof of principle’ for a technique which could replace hips, shoulders or knees. This is the first time an entire joint surface has been regenerated with the return of functions.

On 6 Aug 2010 pioneering surgery to rebuild an 11-year-old boy’s windpipe using his own stem cells is hailed as a success. Doctors at Great Ormond Street Hospital in London in March take stem cells from his bone marrow and inject them into a donor windpipe. He is the first child in the world to undergo the pioneering trachea transplant. On 28 Aug 2010 scientists in Cambridge UK succeed in reprogramming cells from skin samples given by liver disease patients back into stem cells. These stem cells are then used to generate liver cells which mimic a broad range of liver diseases and to create ‘healthy’ liver cells from a control group. Doctors only take a sample from a patient’s liver if it is deemed absolutely necessary, because there is such a high risk of death or of serious complications such as bleeding.

On 11 Oct 2010 US doctors begin the first official trial of using human embryonic stem cells in patients after getting the green light from US regulator the Food & Drug Administration – Geron, a biotech company that has spent $170m on a stem cell treatment, is now allowed to treat people with spinal injuries.

STEM CELLS FOR MUSCLE, BRAIN AND NERVE SYSTEM

Muscle wasting linked to old age might one day be treated using stem cells, claim US scientists. On 11 Nov 2010 a University of Colorado team transplants cells into mice and sees the muscle more than double in size – staying that way even into old age. This may have promise in treating muscle-wasting conditions such as muscular dystrophy. On 16 Nov 2010 a pilot study on 14 patients in the Netherlands and Spain found that stem cells extracted from body fat and delivered to the heart appeared to boost heart function after a heart attack. On the same day doctors in Glasgow inject stem cells into the brain of a stroke patient in an effort to find a new treatment for the condition. The elderly man is the first person in the world to receive this treatment. Critics object as brain cells from foetuses were used to create the cells.

In Dec 2010 scientists identify a way of prompting nerve system repair in multiple sclerosis (MS). Studies on rats by Cambridge and Edinburgh University researchers identify how to help stem cells in the brain regenerate myelin sheath, needed to protect nerve fibres.

On 5 Jan 2011 experts say they have discovered what they believe is the cause of male baldness. It is not so much a lack of hair, but rather a problem with the new hair. A manufacturing defect with the stem cells that make new hair means the hair produced is so small it appears invisible By restoring the normal function of these cells it may be possible to ‘cure’ male baldness

GENETICS – genetherapy

DEFECTIVE MITOCHONDRIA

On 14 April 2010 just as the conjunction comes into orb, scientists at Newcastle University develop a technique which would potentially allow them to replace defective mitochondria (the structure between the cell membrane and nucleus responsible for energy conversion) during in-vitro fertilisation. The nuclei from the father’s sperm and the mother’s egg, which contain the parents’ DNA, are removed, leaving behind the faulty mitochondria. The nuclei are put into another egg from which the nucleus had been removed, but which retains its mitochondria. This new embryo contains the genes from both parents plus a tiny amount of mitochondrial DNA from the donor egg.

SYNTHETIC DNA

On 20 May 2010 scientists at the J Craig Venter Institute (JCVI) in Maryland and California succeed in developing the first living cell to be controlled entirely by synthetic DNA. The researchers construct a bacterium’s ‘genetic software’ and transplant it into a host cell. The resulting microbe then looks and behaves like the species “dictated” by the synthetic DNA. It is thought synthetic bacteria might be used to make new fuels and drugs. Dr Venter is quoted by the BBC stating “I think they’re going to potentially create a new industrial revolution”.

However Genewatch claims “If you release new organisms into the environment, you can do more harm than good,….We don’t know how these organisms will behave in the environment.” Moreover Dr Venter’s efforts to apply for patents on the artificially created organism – nicknamed Synthia – arouses strong opposition from Professor John Sulston who is part of the government and charity-backed effort to make the human genome freely available to all scientists. He believes it will give Dr Venter a monopoly on a range of genetic engineering and will inhibit research.

MENINGITIS & BLOOD DISORDERS BREAKTHROUGHS

On 8 August 2010 an international team manage to pinpoint a set of genes which render people more prone to meningitis by scanning the whole genetic code of 475 UK patients with meningococcal disease and 4,700 healthy individuals. They found a clear difference in a small set of genes known to be involved in the immune system response.

On 15 Sept 2010 comes the announcement that genetherapy has been used for the first time to treat an inherited blood disorder. A man who is given pioneering treatment to correct a faulty gene has made “remarkable progress”. The 18-year-old man had suffered from a severe form of the condition Beta thalassaemia and had been receiving regular blood transfusions since the age of three. Stem cells from his bone marrow were treated with a gene to correct for the faulty one. They were then transfused back into his body, where they gradually gave rise to healthy red blood cells.

ALZHEIMER’S & PARKINSON’S GENETHERAPY

On Nov 29 2010 a gene therapy technique which aims to ease memory problems linked to Alzheimer’s Disease has been successfully tested in mice. US scientists use it to increase levels of a chemical which helps brain cells signal to each other. On 17 March 2011 US researchers demonstrate for the first time that treating Parkinson’s disease with gene therapy has been shown to be successful in clinical trials. The study uses a virus to add genes to brain cells, which results in reduced symptoms for half of patients.

DANGERS OF GENETIC TESTS BEING WIDELY AVAILABLE ?

On 6 April 2011, three weeks after the cycle conjunction goes out of orb, the UK government’s advisory body on genetics says genetic tests for conditions that can be passed on to future generations should be more widely available before pregnancy. It sees ‘no specific social, ethical or legal principles’ against preconception screening, Indications are this would be the recommendation in other countries.

The campaign group Comment on Reproductive Ethics, describes it as a “simply a modern version of eugenics” while Human Genetics Alert, says the report is “immensely dangerous” and that “it will inevitably lead to young people being stigmatised and becoming unmarriageable, and disabled people will feel even more threatened.” The UK Government is set to consider the report’s findings.

On 18 April 2011 a US study appears to demonstrate that parents who were offered a genetic test for 15 genetic variants linked to heart disease, osteoporosis, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, type 2 diabetes and colon, skin and lung cancer also support their children being tested. There are concerns about these tests being offered over the internet or off the shelf. One consumer pressure group Genewatch says “Online gene tests frequently give misleading results because most common conditions such as cancer, obesity or diabetes are not predicable from a person’s genes, except in special circumstances.” It adds “Children should not be tested for risk of adult-onset conditions, full stop. They should be allowed to decide for themselves, with medical advice, when they are grown up.”

GENOME OF APPLE & COCOA SEQUENCED

At the end of August 2010 a team of 86 global scientists finish sequencing the genetic code of the Golden Delicious apple for the first time. The DNA breakthrough could result in new and improved apple varieties which are more resistant to disease. Scientists from 20 institutions took two years to unravel the code – the largest plant genome uncovered to date. On Nov 14 2010 the public release of the genome of the cacao tree – from which chocolate is made – is hailed as the saviour of the chocolate industry A researcher for Mars Cconfectionery, said that without engineering higher-yielding cacao trees, demand would outstrip supply within 50 years. The genome’s availability is also likely to lead to healthier, tastier chocolate.

NUCLEAR RADIATION/PROCESSING

On 26 March 2010, just a few days before the cycle conjunction comes into orb and after months of negotiations US President Obama and Russian President Medvedev agree a new nuclear arms reduction treaty. The treaty, which replaces the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, limits both sides to 1,550 warheads – about 30% less than currently allowed. A cap on deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine launched missiles is set at 700. Coming at the cycle conjunction does this promise the final end of cold war type nuclear competition?

al-QAEDA SEEKING NUCLEAR MATERIAL

If so that might be offset by the focus a few days later at a summit on nuclear safety in Washington where world leaders hear dire warnings of the danger of nuclear material falling into the wrong hands. A senior American counter-terrorism expert at the summit warns that al-Qaeda had been seeking material for a nuclear bomb for more than 15 years. Just before the summit opened, Ukraine agrees to eliminate its stockpile of weapons-grade nuclear material which, the US says, is “enough to build several weapons”.

It is estimated there are about 1,600 tonnes of highly enriched uranium in the world – the type used in nuclear weapons. And of that virtually all is held by the nuclear-weapons states, most of it in Russia. President Obama confirms that “ terrorist networks such as al-Qaeda have tried to acquire the material for a nuclear weapon and, if they ever succeed, they would surely use it” adding that a quantity of radioactive material just “the size of an apple” would be enough to kill thousands of people. At the end of the summit the leaders of 47 countries pledge to secure all vulnerable material within four years.

AIM TO ACHIEVE NUCLEAR FREE MIDDLE EAST

On 29 May nearly 200 nations who signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty (NPT) agree to work towards a nuclear-weapons-free zone in the Middle East. The unanimously agreed document also states that Israel should sign the NPT. On 3 July a fire breaks out at the British nuclear power station Sizewell B – it is quickly put out. On August 4 a fire breaks out at the British atomic weapons establishment in Aldermaston – again there are no radiological implications. A few days later the area hit by nuclear fallout from Chernobyl is swept by fires amid concerns that wind or fire could whip up radioactive particles in the soil.

REPROCESSED NUCLEAR WASTE TRAIN HELD UP BY PROTESTS

On August 24 2010 Moldovan police seize 1.8 kg of uranium-238 in the capital Chisinau – arresting three members of the group trying to sell the material on the black market for 9 million euros. The material however is not weapon capable and there is little of it. On Sept 21 2010 scientists discover that plants may have an innate ability to thrive in radioactive environments like Chernobyl – where tests showed soybean plants adapted to thrive in contaminated soil. On Nov 8 a train carrying 123 tonnes of reprocessed nuclear waste in glass and steel containers across Germany is held up by a series of protests by thousands of anti-nuclear activists. On Nov 9 scientists discover that forensic analysis of the debris left after a nuclear explosion could reveal evidence about the composition and origin of the bomb – this means that if ever there were a terrorist nuclear attack those behind it could be traced.

NEW START TREATY RATIFIED BY US & RUSSIAN PARLIAMENTS

On Nov 30 Russian President Medvedev warns that a new arms race could begin in the next decade if NATO and Moscow fail to agree on a joint missile shield. The issue for NATO is how far it is willing to share information and command and control systems. Russia also warns US lawmakers that any change to the new nuclear arms disarmament treaty could destroy the pact to reduce deployed nuclear warheads by 30% – Republicans in the US Senate had pushed to change its wording. On 21 Dec 2010 the US Senate ratifies the New Start treaty – described by President Obama as the most important such deal in almost 20 years. The treaty is approved by Russia’s parliament on 27 Jan 2011.

FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR DISASTER WORST SINCE CHERNOBYL

Yet bad news in the nuclear field emerges on Feb 4 2011 when the $2.21 billion shelter being built to seal the almost 200 tonnes of melted nuclear fuel rods at Chernobyl power plant is found to have only half the sufficient funds to complete. On Feb 17 2011 managers of the British Sellafield plant are issued with a formal caution over a leak of radioactive liquid which went unnoticed for 14 months. But the big correlation with this Jupiter/Saturn conjunction comes on March 12 2011 – one day after it goes out of orb – when following a devastating 8.9 magnitude earthquake in NE Japan a powerful explosion badly damages the Fukushima nuclear plant. The tsunami destroys back-up diesel generators that kept vital water pumps running to send water round the hot nuclear core.

Later that day the Japanese government declares a nuclear emergency after a number of reactors have automatically shutdown. While Japan has extremely tight standards on ensuring nuclear power plants are earthquake resistant it appears the magnitude, and seismically active coastal location, of this one had not been envisaged.

GOVERNMENTS PHASE OUT OR SUSPEND NUCLEAR POWER STATIONS

Later tens of thousands of people in Germany – pointing to Japan’s disaster as proof of nuclear power’s risky and uncontrollable nature – protest against the government’s plans to extend the life of its nuclear reactors. Demonstrators in Stuttgart form a human chain reaching 27 miles for the protest waving yellow flags with the slogan ‘Nuclear power – no thanks’. On March 15 Germany temporarily shuts down seven of its nuclear reactors and goes on to announce a “measured exit” from nuclear power. In the week following the disaster China suspends approval for new nuclear power stations – it is planning over 100 in the next few years. Switzerland does the same. Venezuela freezes its nuclear energy programme. Within two months the German and Swiss governments decide to phase out nuclear power. The Fukushima nuclear disaster is the worst nuclear disaster since that at Chernobyl in 1986 (at a previous Jupiter/Uranus Out Square).

FUEL CELL

We have already mentioned that on 20 May 2010 scientists at the J Craig Venter Institute (JCVI) succeed in developing the first living cell to be controlled entirely by synthetic DNA. Not only could bacterial cells produce medicines – they should also be able to produce fuels.

HYDROGEN POWERED CARS AND TAXIS

On June 14 in the UK a company called Riversimple launches its hydrogen-powered car which boasts a range of 200 miles and a maximum speed of 50mph and does the equivalent of 300 miles per gallon. By arrangement with Leicester City council in England 30 of these vehicles will be leased at £200 per month plus 15p per mile which includes all the fuel.

On 3 Aug 2010 Lotus, chiefly known as a Formula 1 company, launches a hydrogen powered London taxi to showcase zero exhaust emission vehicles during the 2012 London Olympics. The cab has a stack of fuel cells that convert energy from hydrogen (stored in a tank under the car’s bonnet) into electricity. The electric motors can be powered by either the fuel cell system, or by the battery, or by a combination of the two. One tank of gaseous hydrogen gives the taxi a range of at least 160 miles, Six hydrogen filling stations in London will also serve 5 hydrogen fuel cell buses. In September the Honda FCX Clarity is launched in the UK and Gordon Murray’s T25 city car design and £6,000 price is announced.

In the same month a research team at Heriot-Watt University starts investigating whether a component of urine could be used in fuel cells as an alternative to flammable hydrogen or toxic methanol.

FIRST MASS PRODUCED ELECTRIC CAR

On 19 Nov the Nissan Leaf becomes the first mass-produced electric car to be purpose built and go on sale in the UK – it is priced at £23,990 after taking into account the government subsidy. On 23 Dec a prototype solar device is unveiled which mimics plant life, turning the Sun’s energy into fuel. The machine uses the Sun’s rays and a metal oxide called ceria to break down carbon dioxide or water into fuels which can be stored and transported.

The prototype concentrates sunlight into a cylinder lined with cerium oxide, which has a natural propensity to exhale oxygen as it heats up and inhale it as it cools down. If water is pumped into the vessel, the ceria will rapidly strip the oxygen from it as it cools, creating hydrogen for fuel cells in cars, for example

FINDING A WAY OF STORING HYDROGEN

On 26 Jan 2011 scientists at Glasgow University announce they are using nanotechnology to find a way of storing hydrogen in a solid state. The major problems holding back the industrial-scale use of hydrogen to power fuel cells are storage and expense – and that it requires high volumes and weight to operate successfully.

FUSION POWER

On 12 May 2010 North Korea announces that it has made significant progress towards the development of thermo-nuclear power – its scientists claim it had succeeded in carrying out nuclear fusion. It is a claim that is met with some scepticism in the scientific community. Not even the most technologically advanced countries have so far succeeded in making it work and the limited progress made has demanded huge sums of money.

FUNDING ISSUES

In the US some $3.5 billion is being spent on its National Ignition Facility and in Europe, at least 10 billion euros is being spent on the ITER reactor under construction in France. In contrast North Korea is one of the world’s poorest countries and struggles to generate enough electricity for lighting and other basic needs.

In fact it is a funding issue that makes the news on 12 July when after months of negotiations EU member states decide that the additional funds needed to build the ITER fusion reactor will have to come from a variety of sources within the existing EU budget rather than as fresh investment. By the end of 2012 these plans for an additional 1.4bn euros will have been rejected by the EU parliament. The price for the experiment has risen from a planned 5bn euros to an estimated 16bn euros. ITER is not expected to begin operations until much later this decade. Even then, these will be shake-down tests – full fusion power will not be achieved until the 2020s.

On 24 July Iran launches a programme aimed at developing a nuclear fusion reactor. The head of the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran says the institute will have a budget of $8m and that it could take up to 30 years for a fusion plant to become commercially viable. It is surely strange that the two nations most at odds with the Western powers over their nuclear strategy should both boast of activities in such a long term and expensive development as nuclear fusion power generation.

 ROBOTICS

EMPHASIS ON ADAPTATION & EMPATHY

Robotics seems to continue its correlation – at this conjunction stage the emphasis seems to be on adaptation and empathy. In September 2010 ‘artificial skin’ which could bring a sensitive touch to robots and prosthetic limbs, is shown off by two groups of scientists. Arrays of small pressure sensors that convert tiny changes in pressure into electrical signals are built into or under flexible rubber sheets capable of being stretched into a variety of shapes. The ‘skins’ match human skin’s ability to sense tiny pressure changes quickly.

In October 2010 a team at the Neural Systems Laboratory, University of Washington, is working to take brain-computer interface (BCI) technology to the next level by attempting to teach robots new skills directly via brain signals. “The resulting system is both adaptive and hierarchical – adaptive because it learns from the user and hierarchical because new commands can be composed as sequences of previously learned commands.” says team leader Dr Rao.

ROBOTIC LEGS FOR STROKE PATIENTS

In December 2010 Japanese scientists test out ‘robotic legs’ that can be attached to stroke patients enabling them to walk again. A physiotherapist helps strap the patient in. From a hip joint there are struts running down the outside of the patient’s thighs, to another joint level with her knees. The metal and plastic rods also run down the calves to special shoes for the feet. The two limbs are joined together by a wide belt that goes round the patient’s back Sensor pads on the skin pick up the body’s electrical signals. When the patient moves her leg, the machine moves in unison. It is rather like having an extra set of muscles to help out.

In that same month it is reported that a restaurant in Jinan, China is using robots to serve and entertain customers. The robots follow set routes round the tables stopping for customers to pick food off their trays. While in Edinburgh Scotland a fleet of remote control robots is being used to undertake a major demolition project. The robots work in very small spaces and can even crawl up stairs, so that human builders do not need to enter dangerous areas. Worldwide such robots are used in disasters – including the Fukushima nuclear accident following the 2011 tsunami.

CAN ROBOTS REPLACE HUMAN CARING ?

On February 4 2011 BBC News reports from Tokyo that the Japanese government and care industry have found that robots in the Health sector have turned out to be too expensive, impracticable and sometimes unwelcome, even in ‘robot friendly’ Japan. The country’s biggest robot maker Tmsuk created a life-like one-metre tall robot six years ago, but has struggled to find interested clients. Costing as much as $100,000 each, a rental programme was scrapped recently because it failed to meet the needs of consumers and because it put off patients at hospitals. “We want humans caring for us, not machines,” was one response.

EMPATHETIC PARO SUCCESSFUL WITH DEMENTIA PATIENTS

But Japan has had one modest commercial success with Paro, the robotic pet seal – in the absence of the family a successful provider of emotional interaction for those in care homes. More than 1,000 Paros have been sold in Japan, where they are used in nursing homes and hospitals, as well as by private individuals. The Danes too have been impressed. Following a trial in a dementia centre in Copenhagen using 12 Paro robots, the Danish Technological Institute ordered 1,000 of the electronic pets. What makes the seal so effective is not its robotic skills but more its seemingly empathic responses. Paro can grow active or sleepy, show pleasure when held, and get angry when hit. He also understands simple words like greetings and compliments, and responds with calls and facial expressions.

ROBOEARTH & ROBO-LANGUAGE

In February 2011 European scientists at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich are embarking on a project to let robots share and store what they discover about the world. Called RoboEarth it will be a place that robots can upload data when they master a task, and seek help in carrying out new ones. The aim is to achieve some measure of standardisation in how robots see the world – to provide the robot equivalent of Wikipedia.

In March 2011 researchers in Spain are examining the walking patterns of crabs, lobsters and spiders to develop new ways of getting robots to move around. The rhythmic nerve impulses that govern how they move have been adapted into modular control elements that can be transferred into robots to help mimic natural movement.

As the cycle conjunction goes out of orb scientists at the University of Queensland are working on getting robots to develop their own language to help them navigate. The language has proved so sophisticated that it can be used to help robots find places other robots direct them to. “Human language is so loaded with information that robots found it hard to understand” says project leader Dr Ruth Schulz. In one trial wheeled robots travel about and when they reach a place that does not have a name, they generate a random combination of syllables that represents that place. When that robot meets another robot it tells it about the places it has been. Slowly, as the robots travel and talk, they narrow down their lexicon of place names until a mutual gazetteer of their world has been generated.

NANOTECHNOLOGY

METAMATERIAL

On Nov 6 2010 scientists in the UK demonstrate a flexible film that represents one big step towards being able to render objects invisible. The film contains tiny structures that together form a ‘metamaterial’, which can manipulate light to change the visibility of a material. Flexible metamaterials have been made before, but only work with a wavelength far beyond that which we can see.

NANOPROCESSORS

In February 2011 engineers develop a computer chip made of tiny nanowires whose computing functions can be changed by applying small electric currents. This chip may represent the building blocks for a new generation of far smaller computers. Instead of etching chips out of chunks of material, the nanoprocessors can be built up from minuscule parts. The head of the team describes it as “a quantum jump forward in the complexity and function of circuits”.

MINISCULE GENE TRANSPORT SYSTEM

In March 2011 scientists at Queen’s University in Belfast mange to use a miniscule gene transport system to deliver a poison directly into breast cancer cells. As this approach leaves normal healthy breast cells unaffected, this would overcome many of the toxic side effects of current treatments. Patients would receive the targeted treatment 24-hours before chemotherapy – it would kill the breast cancer cells as well as improving the chemotherapy

ULTRA CLOSE-UP VIEW OF VIRUSES

At the same time researchers at the University of Manchester demonstrate the highest-resolution optical microscope ever – aided by tiny glass beads. The microscope manages to image objects down to just 50 billionths of a metre to yield a direct ultra close-up glimpse into the ‘nanoscopic’ world. The technique makes use of ‘evanescent waves’ emitted very near to an object but normally lost. Instead the beads are configured to gather the light and refocus it. The team says the method could even be used to view individual viruses.

THEORETICAL PHYSICS

IS A MAJOR PARTICLE PHYSICS DISCOVERY IMMINENT ?

On 10 March 2010 just three weeks before the Jupiter/Uranus conjunction comes into orb it is announced that the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) must close at the end of 2011 for up to a year to address design issues – this is thought likely to put back the machine reaching its full potential around two years. However within days the LHC not only beats world records in collision energies, it sets one seven times higher.

It may be important to see how these two announcements pan out by April 2011 when the conjunction goes out of orb. One thing is definite if this correlation is correct, it seems highly likely that this twelve year cycle will see a confirmed major particle physics discovery at the cycle opposition stage in 2016.

BEGINNING OF A NEW ERA IN SCIENCE ?

It was on 21 Nov 2009 that engineers operating the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) first smashed together proton beams in the machine. These initial trials measured collision energies beyond one trillion electron volts, making it the world’s highest-energy particle accelerator. Then on 19 March 2010 the LHC creates two beams of protons, each with an energy of 3.5 trillion electron volts which when allowed to collide produced a collision energy of 7 trillion electron volts. Some describe this breakthrough as the beginning of a new era in science – though at the same time caution is expressed that any major discovery will require billions of ‘events’ and years of patient work.

RECREATING THE CONDITIONS AFTER ‘THE BIG BANG’

The LHC’s four major experiments – its giant detectors Alice, Atlas, CMS and LHCb – now start to gather their first physics data from the collisions, a development CERN describes as an “historic moment”. The ultimate aim is to collide particles head on at 14 trillion electron volts to recreate the conditions in the moments after the Big Bang. CERN’s hope is it will find new subatomic particles in the debris and gain insights into how the universe came into being, billions of years ago.

One of the first prospects for new discoveries at this mass scale are particles known as W prime and Z prime bosons. These are heavier versions of the W and Z bosons, which are responsible for weak interactions. The weak interactions are one of the four fundamental interactions of nature, alongside gravity, the strong interaction and electromagnetic force. But its is the Higgs boson that is the Holy Grail – it will explain why all other particles have mass.

MATTER & ANTI-MATTER BALANCE

On 19 May 2010 a US-based physics experiment at Fermilab in Illinois reports finding a clue as to why the world around us is composed more of normal matter and not its shadowy opposite – anti-matter. Anti-matter is comparatively rare and yet physicists think the Big Bang should have produced equal amounts of matter and its opposite.

Researchers working on the DZero experiment observe that collisions of protons and anti-protons in Fermilab’s Tevatron particle accelerator produce pairs of matter particles slightly more often than they yield anti-matter particles. Their findings show much more significant asymmetry of matter and antimatter than can be explained by the physicists’ Standard model established in the 1970s.

“THE DEEPER YOU GO, THE MORE OF A PATTERN YOU FIND”

On 22 June scientists succeed in simulating the sounds set to be made by sub-atomic particles such as the Higgs boson when they are produced at the LHC. The Atlas team at LHC have devised a way to convert data into sounds so they can be more easily picked out. A composer involved with the project says he is struck at how musical the products of the collisions sound. “We can hear clear structures in the sound, almost as if they had been composed….” Adds a software engineer “The deeper you go, the more of a pattern you find…”

On 14 July a rumour surfaces that the US Tevatron accelerator had detected the elusive Higgs boson but the news is swiftly quashed. The Tevatron accelerator is due to close in 2011 but if that were to be extended to 2014 it could give the US facility an advantage over the LHC in the race to find the Higgs boson. On 23 July physicists at the LHC claim they have seen several candidates for the heaviest elementary particle known to science – the top quark. There is thought to be a special interaction between the top quark and the Higgs boson.

TEN TRILLION DEGREES REACHED

On Sept 22 LHC physicists notice something strange in the paths taken by the debris particles as they move away from the impacts – effects mirroring those recently found at the US Brookhaven National Laboratory. On Nov 7 the LHC successfully creates a mini big-bang by smashing together lead ions instead of protons – creating temperatures a million times hotter than the centre of the Sun – over ten trillion degrees ! In sub atomic terms the result is a “hot dense soup of quarks and gluons”, the plasma believed to have existed just after the Big Bang.

“IN THE STANDARD MODEL THERE’S NOTHING CYCLIC”

Meanwhile on Nov 27 2010 a renowned cosmologist Roger Penrose finds some evidence for his rejection of the need to institute a theoretical beginning to the Universe “I claim that this aeon (period from our Big Bang until the remote future) is one of a succession of such things, where the remote future of the previous aeons somehow becomes the Big Bang of our aeon.” The Penrose theory holds that the same object may have undergone the same processes more than once in history. One cosmologist commented “In the standard Big Bang model, there’s nothing cyclic; it has a beginning and it has no end. “The philosophical question that’s sensible to ask is ‘what came before the Big Bang?’; and what they’re striving for here is to do away with that ‘there’s nothing before’ answer by making it cyclical.”

WHEN WILL THE HIGGS BOSON BE FOUND ?

On Jan 10 2011 the US Tevatron accelerator is denied an extension that would have kept it running to 2014 and will now close at the end of 2011. A difficult US budget situation is to blame. After that the LHC will have a clear run in the search for the Higgs boson particle. On Feb 27 2011 researchers at the LHC say they expect to discover the Higgs boson particle by the end of 2012. If the Higgs boson research does correlate with this Jupiter/Uranus cycle we would be tempted to look for August 2013 (the out square) as the earliest point for the breakthrough but if the meaning of the Out square were to hold the full discovery would almost certainly not be made till the cycle opposition between 2016 and 2017.

MAY HAVE TO MODIFY OUR CURRENT VIEW OF SUB-ATOMIC PHYSICS

The physicists say if the LHC does not turn up evidence of the Higgs boson by end 2012, they may have to significantly alter their views of physical laws. Professor Tom LeCompte of the Argonne National Laboratory, US, who works at the LHC says “… not finding the Higgs may be more exciting than finding it – because researchers may have to modify their current view of sub-atomic physics”. His other comments fit well with what might be expected at the cycle out square : “If we don’t see it after this two year run it means that something is perhaps not the way that we think it is, either the Higgs search itself had to be amended in some way or some of its indirect evidence may be pointing us in the wrong direction.“

On 10 March 2011 this Jupiter/Uranus conjunction goes permanently out of orb. No development of any significance to the LHC occurs in the 12 months that follow. April sees a possible find at the US Tevatron of a particle not included in the Standard Model – later rejected – and in Europe a pioneering technique with slow-moving neutrons. June sees scientists briefly trap atoms of anti-hydrogen for more than 15 minutes for the first time. But thereafter all is talk of hints, speculation and false alarms on the search for the Higgs boson as the US Tevatron facility closes after 25 years and the LHC ramps up to look at the remaining narrow search band at a 14 trillion electron volts level. The Jupiter/Uranus Out square is exact in August 2013 and February and April 2014.

The Opposition is in orb from November 2016 through to November 2017. It is exact on 26 December 2016 and 3 March & 28 September 2017.

exact in May & August 2010 and March 2011

The Opposition stays in a 10 degree orb from April 2010 to March 2012.

IRAQ

The cycle opposition sees violence and bloodshed in Iraq continue – during this period around 330 civilians get killed per month – high though this is it contrasts with the thousands killed every month in 2005, 2006 and 2007.

MAXIMISATION OF CHAOS & UNCERTAINTY AS US AND BRITISH TROOPS LEAVE

What the Jupiter/Saturn opposition represents is a maximisation of chaos and uncertainty stemming from the departure from Iraq of UK troops (May 2011) and US troops (Dec 2011) and this following a nine month period when Iraq actually had no acting government at all. We shall look at the political and constitutional picture but first let us look at what kind of violence takes place in this period.

BOMBINGS AND SHOOTINGS TARGET SECURITY AND GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS

It is a quite different patchwork of violence from the predominantly execution style violence at the cycle out-square. There are indeed very much fewer execution style killings. The main targets of bombings and shootings are security officials and government workers – the aim being to disrupt the running of the country. However what is difficult is to distinguish the al-Qaeda (‘al-Qaeda in Iraq’) and ‘Islamic State of Iraq’ killings from what seem to be purely sectarian killings. It is true there are a very large number of attacks targeting members of those Sunni groups (Awakening Councils) who have turned against al-Qaeda (remember al Qaeda is a largely Sunni group) and these attacks are anti- coalition in nature but there are a huge group of Sunni attacks on Shiite mosques, pilgrims and neighbourhoods that appear purely sectarian. It is true that these attacks serve to undermine the government – the government being Shia led – but it seems unlikely that this is the main motivation

MAJOR BOMBINGS INCREASINGLY SECTARIAN

The list below summarises all bombings reported with over 20 fatalities. You will see how they group around the exact cycle opposition dates and how the mainly, or purely. sectarian attacks (in red) increasingly start to predominate.

2010 Apr 4 (40), Apr 6 (50), Apr 23 (72), May 10 (50), May 14 (20) May 17 (30) May 23 First Exact Hit June 20 (32), July 7 (45), July 15 (27), July 18 (48), July 26 (30), Aug 7 (20), Aug 16 Second Exact Hit Aug 17 (61), Sept 19 (36) Oct 29 (22), Oct 31 (68), Nov 2 (91),

2011 Jan 18 (65), Jan 20 (56), Jan 24 (36), Jan 27 (51), Feb 12 (36) March 28 Third Exact Hit May 5 (20), May 22 (20), June 3 (21), June 21 (27), June 23 (24), July 5 (37), Aug 2 (23), Aug 15 (89), Aug 28 (29), Sept 30 (20), Oct 12 (25), Oct 27 (32), Dec 5 (30), Dec 21 (69),

2012 Jan 5 (78), Jan 14 (53), Jan 27 (33)

But the key development in Iraq that correlates with the cycle opposition seems to be the absence of government and the departure, 9 years after the invasion, of US and UK forces. Has the invasion, as claimed, laid the foundations for democracy in Iraq ? Will the new government be able to cope on its own ?  What other geographical factor could influence the outcome ?

ELECTIONS LEAD TO POLITICAL DEADLOCK

On April 7 2010 as the cycle opposition starts an ‘election results’ investigation raises doubts over Nouri al-Maliki’s win and leads to a recount being ordered. On April 23 Iraq’s two main Shiite blocs sign an agreement likely to further alienate Iraq’s Sunni minority which had been hoping that March’s election would boost their role in power. On May 14 the election commission decides that the recount did not change the result (May 23 is the First exact Opposition) and on June 1^st the Supreme Court ratifies the election results. On Aug 31 US Vice President Joe Biden presiding over the formal end to US combat operations in Iraq makes a new appeal to Iraqi leaders to end the political deadlock and seat a new government. (Aug 16 is the Second exact Opposition)

BREAKTHROUGH POWER SHARING DEAL

On September 28 2010 the cycle opposition goes out of orb till February 23. Politically and constitutionally matters change direction. On Oct 24 Iraq’s highest court orders parliament back to work after a seven-month political impasse and a few days later Iraq’s political rivals reach a breakthrough power-sharing deal in which Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite, retains the premiership. The deal is between the National Alliance, which represents the main Shiite parties, and the Kurdish coalition, while the Sunni-backed Iraqiya’s support hinges on its agreement over the posts of speaker and president. On Dec 21 Iraqi lawmakers unanimously approve the new government. They also adopt a 43-point program aimed at liberalizing the economy and fighting terrorism.

MAJOR SUICIDE BOMBINGS + NEW INSURGENT GROUP EMERGES

On Feb 23 2011 the cycle opposition comes back into orb. On Feb 26 thousands march on government buildings and clash with security forces in cities across the country – 14 die in these protests at the government’s failure to provide basic services. There are further major demonstrations in March and early April. (March 28 is the Third exact opposition)  In June and July there are several major suicide bombs then on August 15 bomb blasts rip through more than a dozen Iraqi cities, killing at least 89 security forces and civilians in the worst attack this year.

Although at this time the security forces announce they have smashed an al-Qaeda network responsible for hundreds of killings in Baghdad, the Islamic State of Iraq group, a front group for al-Qaeda in Iraq and others, vows to carry out “100 attacks” across the country, to exact revenge for the US inflicted death of Osama bin Laden. On Dec 15 US officials formally shut down the war in Iraq after nearly nine years at a cost of 4,500 American dead and an absolute minimum of 100,000 Iraqi dead and with a price tag for the US Treasury of $800 billion.

The United States’ absence shows when on Dec 21 a wave of at least 14 bombings rips across Baghdad, killing 69 people in the worst violence in Iraq since August. The bombings which continue through till early March when the cycle opposition finally and permanently goes out of orb, are serious and emphatically sectarian.

IRAN

MAXIMISATION OF IMPASSE BETWEEN THE WEST AND IRAN AS IT PUSHES AHEAD WITH ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAMME.

The cycle opposition sees the maximisation of an impasse between the Western powers and Iran over its nuclear programme. While sanctions and later an embargo are imposed the controversial uranium enrichment proceeds. As the Opposition begins, on April 9 2010 Iran unveils a third generation of domestically built centrifuges as it pushes ahead with plans to accelerate its uranium enrichment program which has so alarmed world powers. On May 19 Iran dismisses as “illegitimate” a draft UN Security Council resolution seeking to impose harsher sanctions against Tehran for its refusal to halt uranium enrichment. (May 23 2010 is the 1st exact cycle opposition)

The following day Iran formally submits its plan to swap some of its enriched uranium for reactor fuel stating that the onus is on world powers to defuse tensions by accepting the deal. On June 21 Iran says it has banned two UN nuclear inspectors from entering the country because they had leaked “false information” about Iran’s disputed nuclear program. At the same time Iran’s nuclear chief says his country has produced 17 kilograms of uranium enriched to 20 percent, in defiance of UN demands.

DESPITE NEW US & EU SANCTIONS IRAN DEFIES UN SECURITY COUNCIL

On July 1 President Obama signs into law new sanctions on Iran that, for the first time, will bar from the American market foreign companies that work with Iranian businesses charged with aiding Tehran’s nuclear program. On July 24 Iran warns it will stop trading with countries that impose such restrictions on its assets abroad. A few days later Iran vows to press ahead with its nuclear program despite being slapped with tough new EU sanctions – sanctions swiftly condemned by Russia. On July 30 Iran says it is ready for immediate talks with the US, Russia and France over an exchange of nuclear fuel adding it is also against stockpiling higher enriched uranium. On August 9 the IAEA says Iran has activated equipment to enrich uranium more efficiently – a move directly defying the UN Security Council. (August 16 2010 is the 2^nd exact cycle opposition)

IRAN OFFERS TO END HIGH LEVEL ENRICHMENT

On August 16 Iran says it plans to build 10 new uranium enrichment sites inside protected mountain strongholds. At the same time Iran takes its case against the US to the UN strongly condemning a top US military chief who said military action remains a possibility if Iran develops nuclear weapons.  At the same time Iran launches an array of new military hardware including a new surface to air missile and its own unmanned bomber. On Sept 24 Iran’s President Ahmadinejad tells reporters that Iran would consider ending higher level uranium enrichment if world powers send Tehran nuclear fuel for a medical research reactor.

On Sept 28 the cycle opposition goes out of orb till Feb 23 – only two developments of any note occur during this period. On Dec 5 Iran claims it could now use domestically mined uranium to produce nuclear fuel, giving the country complete control over a process the West suspects is geared toward producing weapons. On Jan 4 2011 Iran’s government invites world powers and its allies in the Arab and developing world to tour Iranian nuclear sites – the proposal loses all credibility when the most sympathetic of the world powers Russia and China reject such a move as inadequate. After February 23 the opposition is back in orb. On Feb 26 Iran concedes it is having to remove nuclear fuel from the reactor of its only nuclear power station. (March 28 2011 is the 3^rd exact cycle opposition)

IRAN WON’T RETREAT ONE IOTA FROM ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM

On May 10 Iran says it has accepted the EU’s proposal for more talks. On June 8 the government of Iran announces it plans to continue nuclear enrichment, regardless of opposition. On July 19 Iran issues a new warning that it will halt supplies of crude oil to India unless the issue of billions of dollars owed to Iran and held back by international sanctions is paid. On Nov 9 President Ahmadinejad vows that Iran “won’t retreat one iota” from its nuclear program, denying claims that it seeks atomic weapons. On Jan 1 2012 Iran’s nuclear agency announces its scientists have tested the first nuclear fuel rod produced from uranium ore deposits inside the country. On Jan 23 the EU bans the purchase of Iranian oil – in response Iran threatens to retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz.

In February 2012 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors leave Iran after being denied access to the Parchin site, south of Tehran. The cycle correlation suggests there will be no breakthrough affecting Iran’s nuclear development programme till the cycle In square in mid 2015. Whether that breakthrough will be the retreat of Iran in the face of negotiations or as the result of targeted sanctions or even the threat of a military strike is unclear. If the correlation is right nothing pivotal will happen till then.

ISRAEL/PALESTINE

MAXIMISATION OF IMPASSE BETWEEN ISRAEL AND PALESTINIANS OVER A PEACE DEAL

The cycle opposition sees the maximisation of an impasse between Israel and Palestinian representatives over a peace resolution – specifically one that allows the creation of an independent Palestine state. It also sees a maximisation of the clash between the two Palestinian groups Fatah and Hamas. As the opposition begins, on April 17 2010 Hamas and Fatah do close ranks to protest against Israel continuing to keep some 6,600 Palestinian militants in jail – the first joint initiative by the bitter rivals since Fatah was routed from Gaza in 2007 – but it is not to last. Days later on the Israeli side Defence minister Ehud Barak says Israel must recognize that the world will not put up with decades more of Israeli rule over the Palestinian people. It will be Palestinian solidarity and Israeli longterm realism that will be tested and found wanting during this cycle stage.

On May 5 Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations restart after a break of more than a year – on the opposite sides of the table are a hard-line Israeli government and a Palestinian administration in control of only part of its territory. Indirect peace talks follow led by US Middle East envoy George Mitchell. On the Israeli side it is its construction of new housing for Jews in East Jerusalem, the traditionally Arab sector of the city, that proves the critical bar to progress on a peace agreement. On May 10 Israel says it will press ahead with planned construction there – such announcements, to the US administration’s chagrin, do much to detract from any progress made on other issues and recur throughout this cycle stage. (23 May 2010 First exact cycle opposition) The first major international newsworthy incident occurs almost immediately after this cycle opposition date.

ISRAEL’S NAVAL ATTACK ON ‘HUMANITARIAN’ FLOTILLA CAUSES OUTRAGE

Eight ships carrying 10,000 tons of donated supplies and hundreds of pro-Palestinian activists approach blockaded Gaza. On May 31 Israeli naval commandos storm the small flotilla of ships killing nine passengers in a predawn raid that sets off worldwide condemnation and a diplomatic crisis. At least four of the nine dead come from Turkey where a massive protest breaks out – and Turkey had been for many years Israel’s only Muslim ally. Ankara announces it is recalling its ambassador and calling off military exercises with Israel. Turkey’s prime minister declares that Israel had carried out a “bloody massacre”. Days later Israel rejects calls from the UN and others for an international investigation of its deadly raid. On August 15 Israel’s military says Hezbollah is moving fighters and weapons into the villages of south Lebanon, building up a secret network of arms warehouses, bunkers and command posts in apparent preparation for war. But there is to be no war there. (16 Aug 2010 Second exact cycle opposition)

ISRAELIS  INTRANSIGENT ON KEY ISSUES

On Sept 2 2010 Israeli and Palestinian leaders meet in Washington to prepare negotiations, vowing to try to settle core differences within a year but neither leader addresses the sensitive question of whether Israel would extend a moratorium on settlement building in the West Bank due to expire on September 26. On Sept 27 Israeli settlement building resumes across the West Bank but Palestinian President Abbas holds back on a threat to quit the peace talks. And then on Oct 11 the Israeli government endorses a bill requiring a national referendum to be held before any withdrawal from occupied east Jerusalem or the Golan Heights – ensuring this key element of any peace agreement is subject to popular support among Israelis. PM Netanyahu spells out recognition of Israel as a Jewish state as his price for a renewal of a ban on construction in the occupied West Bank. The offer is rejected out of hand by the Palestinians, who say it had “nothing to do with the peace process.”

ISRAELI GOVERNMENT REJECTS SETTLEMENT FREEZE

On Oct 15 Israel signs off the construction of 238 homes in Jewish neighbourhoods in east Jerusalem. On Oct 27 it appears that Israel’s Defence minister is holding up construction on 4,300 apartments that could be built immediately in the West Bank. However on Nov 8 he moves ahead with plans to build 1,300 of them. On Nov 21 Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas says that he will not return to the negotiating table with Israel without a settlement freeze that includes annexed Arab east Jerusalem. A week later the US vetoes a UN resolution condemning Israel’s West Bank settlements. In early March in Jerusalem again officials approve new housing for Jews in the heart of an Arab neighbourhood, once again infuriating Palestinians.

MILITANT ROCKETS ELICIT ISRAELI TANK & AIR ATTACKS

The violent aspect of relations between Palestinians and Israel throughout this cycle stage consists of Palestinian militants – especially the Islamic Jihad – firing rockets into Southern Israel and Israel responding with targeted air and tank attacks on Gaza. On March 25 Israel deploys its newly developed rocket defence system for the first time to defend its southern communities from attacks by Gaza militants after the bloodiest week of Palestinian strikes and Israeli reprisals. (28 March 2011 Third exact cycle opposition)

ISRAEL SIGNS OFF HOME CONSTRUCTION IN ARAB EAST JERUSALEM

On April 6 2011 a group of prominent Israelis, many of them former defence chiefs, launch a new peace plan calling for the establishment of a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital – shortly after 47 signatories call for an Israeli pull-out from the West Bank. And yet the focus is still on house construction in Jerusalem. On April 11 Israel’s PM Netanyahu asks a government panel to put off final approval of 2,500 new apartments in east Jerusalem. On Aug 11 Israel’s interior minister gives final authorization to build 1,600 apartments in east Jerusalem stating he will approve 2,700 more later. On Sept 27 1,100 of those are authorised. On Jan 3 2012 the two sides meet in Jordan in the presence of envoys from the US, Russia, the EU and the UN. There is no significant breakthrough. By March 2012 the cycle opposition has moved out of orb.

CLASHES BETWEEN HAMAS AND FATAH

The other side of the story is the relationship between the two Palestinian liberation groups – Hamas and Fatah. The first rules Gaza, the second, as the Palestinian National Authority, rules the West Bank – both territories of course under the control of Israel. Hamas is known for its militant operations though it does have a strong community role and it acts to establish order in Gaza – albeit in a ruthless manner. In April 2010 it starts to carry out formal executions. It also orders Gaza residents to shut smuggling tunnels along the border with Egypt indefinitely, cutting off what had been something of an economic lifeline. It even destroys nearly 2 million pills of Tramadol, a painkiller many Gazans take recreationally

On May 6 Palestinian President Abbas accuses Hamas of smuggling large amounts of weapons into the West Bank as part of the militant group’s efforts to undermine his administration. It is unclear whether Hamas has control over other militant groups in Gaza – on June 28 two dozen masked men vandalize a UN summer camp for children, burning and slashing tents, toys and a plastic swimming pool – the second such attack in just over a month. More seriously there are other militant groups firing rockets into Israel. In August 2011 Hamas security forces in the Gaza Strip detain two members of an extremist organization called Al-Tawfid wal Jihad, suspected of such attacks.

HAMAS & FATAH REACH AGREEMENT AFTER 4 BITTER YEARS

In November 2010 representatives of Hamas and Fatah meet in Damascus for reconciliation talks. Over the coming months there is evidence Israel tries to undermine this coming together by arresting up to a dozen Hamas MPs. Yet there is also evidence Hamas urges other militants to halt their attacks, saying that continued violence would only invite Israeli reprisals. On April 27 2011 Hamas and Fatah say they have reached an agreement on reuniting their governments after four years of bitter infighting. On May 3 a top Palestinian negotiator confirms that 15 smaller factions, including militant Islamic groups, have thrown their weight behind this reconciliation deal.

On Aug 7 2011 Hamas and Fatah open further talks in Egypt then on Nov 24 Palestinian President Abbas and Khaled Mashaal, the Head of Hamas, say they have significantly narrowed differences between them. On Dec 22 the two announce plans to admit Hamas to the umbrella group that has overseen two decades of on-and-off peace talks with Israel. Two months later the opposition cycle goes out of orb and if the correlation is correct we can expect that united front to be consolidated over the years to come. Hamas’s position in August 2011 is that it is willing to cooperate with “a resolution to the Arab-Israeli conflict which included a Palestinian state based on 1967 borders,” provided that Palestinian refugees held the right to return to Israel and that East Jerusalem be the new nation’s capital. But will Hamas be prepared to compromise in any way on these two issues, likely to be contentious to the Israelis ? Will there be the emergence of a new type of peace deal in 2015 ?

NORTH KOREA

DEATH OF KIM JONG IL

The cycle opposition sees the maximisation of an impasse between North Korea and world powers over the abandonment of North Korea’s nuclear weapon development. It also sees the death of Kim Jong Il and the succession passing to his third son – as yet an unknown player. The cycle opposition starts with officials from 47 countries attending a summit on nuclear proliferation – the key concerns are Iran, Israel and North Korea. On May 11 the Israeli Foreign minister accuses North Korea of supplying Syria with weapons of mass destruction – bringing into focus the dangers in N Korea being able to export nuclear weapons.

NORTH KOREA BLAMED FOR SINKING SOUTH KOREAN CORVETTE

(May 23 2010 is the first exact cycle opposition) The first major international newsworthy incident occurs immediately before this. On May 20 a multinational team blames North Korea for sinking a South Korean corvette with a torpedo in March claiming 46 lives – prompting an angry denial from Pyongyang and a threat of war if it is punished. Two days later North Korea declares that it is severing all communication and relations with Seoul as punishment for it being blamed for the sinking of the South Korean warship. It goes on to scrap an accord with the South designed to prevent armed clashes at their maritime border, and warns of “immediate physical strikes” if any South Korean ships enters its waters.

On June 12 North Korea vows to launch an all-out attack against South Korean loudspeaker broadcasts and other propaganda facilities along their heavily fortified border, warning it could even turn its capital Seoul into a “sea of flame.” On June 21 South Korea says abnormally high radiation levels were detected near the border between the two Koreas on May 15, days after North Korea claimed to have mastered a complex technology key to manufacturing a hydrogen bomb.

On July 10 North Korea expresses willingness to return to international nuclear disarmament talks but on July 21 the US announces new sanctions against North Korea and warns of serious consequences if it again attacks the South. On July 24 North Korea vows to respond with “powerful nuclear deterrence” to joint US and South Korean military exercises. (Aug 16 2010 is the second exact cycle opposition) The following day North Korea rejects a new unification proposal from South Korea, calling it a “ridiculous” plan aimed at weakening the North in preparation for a US-assisted invasion.

UN REPORT SUGGESTS NORTH KOREA MAY HAVE SUPPLIED SYRIA, IRAN AND MYANMAR WITH NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY

On Sep 28 North Korea’s Kim Jong Il makes his youngest son, Kim Jong Un, a four-star general in a promotion – seen as the first step toward his ascent as the country’s next leader. On Oct 10 he appears next to his father at a massive military parade. On Oct 16 2010 North Korea says it is willing to resume six-nation nuclear disarmament talks. On Nov 9 a UN report suggesting North Korea may have supplied Syria, Iran and Myanmar with banned nuclear technology reaches the Security Council. On Nov 19 a UN General Assembly committee passes resolutions condemning human rights violations in Iran, Myanmar and North Korea, provoking a furious reaction from their delegations.

NORTH KOREA ATTACK ON DISPUTED ISLAND

On Nov 23 North and South Korea exchange artillery fire after the North shells an island near their disputed sea border, killing at least 2 South Korean marines and 2 civilians. On Dec 3 South Korea threatens to bomb North Korea if it tries a repeat of the attack, its President promising to transform the five islands that lie along the disputed border into “military fortresses”. By January 5 2011 North Korea turns conciliatory – proposing ‘unconditional’ talks with Seoul to mend their damaged cross-border ties. On Jan 20 South Korea agrees to an offer of high-level military talks but the meeting in February falls apart when the two sides cannot agree on the agenda. (March 28 2011 is the third exact cycle opposition)

KIM JONG UN DECLARED NEW LEADER

Nothing substantive happens till 25 October 2011 when in Geneva US and North Korean officials conclude their two-day talks about Pyongyang’s nuclear program – talks described by the US delegate as very positive. But this is made irrelevant by the major event of 17 Dec 2011 – North Korean leader Kim Jong Il dies of a heart attack. He had succeeded his father Kim II Sung who had founded the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) in 1948. On Dec 29 2011 the dead ruler’s third son, Kim Jong Un is publicly declared the country’s supreme leader at a massive public memorial ceremony followed in February 2012 by the army pledging its loyalty.

 AFGHANISTAN

MAXIMISATION OF CIVILIAN DEATHS CAUSED BY TALIBAN INSURGENCY – IN PARTICULAR SUICIDE BOMBINGS

The cycle does not correlate with the war in Afghanistan as a whole but with the Taliban’s interaction with Afghan civilians and the Afghan government. The cycle opposition from April 2010 to March 2012 sees a maximisation of civilian deaths caused by Taliban insurgent activities – in particular suicide bombings. The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) makes 2010 and 2011 the worst for insurgent caused civilian deaths and civilian deaths as a whole. In 2010, the deadliest year for Afghans since the fall of the Taliban government some 2,080 civilians are killed by insurgents. In 2011 2,416 civilians are killed by insurgents. Not all these insurgent caused deaths are carried out by the Taliban but it seems reasonable to attribute the vast majority of planned attacks to the group. A 2012 report by UNAMA notes that the number of Afghan civilians killed or injured in 2012 decreased for the first time since the UN began keeping track of such figures – this fall off in civilian casualties overall in 2012 is consistent with the cycle opposition going out of orb in March 2012.

SURGE IN USE OF IEDs AND CONVOY ATTACKS.

It is exactly in this 2010-2012 period that the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) increases and that a surge in major suicide bombings take place. Let us focus on suicide bombings. In April the Afghan police had thwarted a major attack in Kabul, arresting five would-be suicide bombers, the largest such group apprehended in the capital. They later trapped nine members of a terrorist cell seizing nearly a quarter of a ton of explosives. Then on May 18, 2010 as the cycle opposition comes into orb the May 2010 Kabul bombing occurs. 18 people are killed and 52 injured when a NATO convoy is targeted by a Taliban suicide attacker. (May 23 2010 is the first exact cycle opposition)

ATTACK ON GIRLS SCHOOL  WEDDING PARTY AND MEDICAL TEAM

On May 30 suspected Taliban members, using rocket-propelled grenades and bombs, blow up a barely completed school for girls – built with international aid at a cost of a quarter of a million dollars. On June 2 Taliban militants launch a suicide attack on Afghanistan’s three day national peace conference opened by President Hamid Karzai – it is successfully foiled. That week sees a spike in insurgent attacks in advance of a major NATO operation in the Taliban stronghold of Kandahar. There on June 9, in one of the worst incidents in this period, a 12 year-old suicide bomber detonates his vest at a wedding party for a family with ties to the police, killing over 40 people. The Taliban, blamed by NATO, deny they were responsible for the attack, even condemning it as “a brutal act”.

On June 30 six suicide attackers kill 32 foreign and Afghan security forces at a NATO airbase near the Pakistan border. On Aug 5 ten members of a medical team are shot and killed by the Taliban as they are returning from providing eye treatment in remote villages – another shock to international opinion. (Aug 16 2010 is the second exact cycle opposition) On Aug 19 the Taliban kill 25 security guards in Helmand and the day after 15 police officers across the country .

KARZAI BEGINS SECRET TALKS WITH TALIBAN

The remainder of the period see increasing attempts to negotiate with the Taliban. On Sept 4 President Karzai announces a Peace Council has been set up to pursue talks with the Taliban. On Oct 6 President Karzai starts secret discussions with Taliban representatives – talks authorised by Muhammed Omar, the leader of the Pakistani based Taliban. However October 2010 sees a number of Taliban leaders killed or captured while on Oct 8 the Kunduz provincial governor and at least 19 other people are killed by the Taliban using a massive bomb inside a packed mosque during Friday prayers. In November in Ghazni province the Taliban overrun a district seat torching government buildings there and killing 16 policemen. On Nov 6 suspected Taliban members set fire to a girls’ school in Laghman province, burning the entire structure and its contents.

As 2011 gets underway on Jan 18 fifty Taliban fighters lay down their arms and join pro-government forces in northern Afghanistan. On Feb 12 Taliban suicide bombers kill 19 people in an attack on police headquarters in Kandahar. On Feb 18 in eastern Afghanistan suspected Taliban gunmen and suicide bombers dressed as border police kill 38 people in an attack on a bank in Jalalabad. On Feb 21 a suicide bomber blows himself up at the entrance to a government office in Kunduz province, killing at least 30 people.

AFGHAN FORCES TO TAKE OVER FROM COALITION IN 7 AREAS

On March 22 President Karzai says that his nation’s security forces will take over from the US led coalition in seven parts of the country – a first step toward his goal of having Afghan police and soldiers in charge by the end of 2014. This plan draws a line for the Western powers and their electoral support at home but arguably allows the Taliban to just keep going till they can take over when the coalition exits. (March 28 2011 is the third exact cycle opposition)

TALIBAN START SPRING MILITARY OFFENSIVE

At the end of March the Taliban announce the start of their spring military offensive. On Mar 29 in Nuristan province about 300 Taliban fighters overrun the tiny capital of this remote mountainous district while in Kunar province Taliban militants kidnap 40 police. On Apr 16 President Karzai and visiting Pakistani PM Raza Gilani agree to boost joint peace efforts with Taliban insurgents. In that same month President Karzai publicly berates the Taliban for using a 12 year old as a suicide bomber – later he pardons two dozen boys who had been caught trying to carry out suicide attacks – but the following year with terrible irony two of the boys (aged 10) are re-arrested for again attempting to carry out suicide bombings !

ATTEMPTS AT DIALOGUE SHOULD BE WITH PAKISTAN NOT TALIBAN

In May the Taliban unleash a wave of attacks on government targets in Kandahar city and in remote Taliban dominated Nuristan province, as well as Jawzjan province. On June 25 a medical clinic in Logar province is blown up killing 38 people. On June 28 heavily armed Taliban militants storm a top Kabul hotel, sparking a ferocious battle involving Afghan commandos and a NATO helicopter gunship that leaves 20 people dead. On July 6 the Taliban kill some 25 police in Nuristan province. On Aug 14 six suspected Taliban suicide bombers storm the Parwan governor’s compound, killing 22 people. On Sep 20 a Taliban suicide bomber in Kabul, with concealed explosives in a turban, assassinates former Afghan president Burhanuddin Rabbani, who had been leading peace efforts. On Sep 30 President Karzai says attempts to negotiate with the Taliban are futile and efforts at dialogue should focus instead on Pakistan. Pointing out that the key Taliban leaders are based in Quetta, Pakistan, Karzai goes on to claim that the Taliban are being propped up by Pakistan, saying the militants cannot lift a finger without the Pakistanis.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN ISAF FORCES LEAVE IN 2014 ?

However the Taliban are not the only militant groups conducting suicide bombings. On December 6 the Ashura suicide bombings taqke place in the Afghan capital Kabul and Mazar-e-Sharif, killing 80 and injuring 160. The Taliban deny responsibility for these and the suicide bombing carried out on Dec 25 in Takhar province killing 19. Responsibility for the former bombings are attributed to the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Jhangvi group and to the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan for the latter. Indeed as 2012 begins, President Karzai meets delegates from Afghanistan’s second largest militant group – Hezb-i-Islami – led by a former Afghan prime minister. As January ends and the cycle opposition starts to go out of orb NATO confirms a secret report saying that the Taliban, backed by Pakistan, are set to retake control of Afghanistan as soon as NATO-led forces withdraw.

FINANCE

EU LEADERS AGREE TO PROVIDE $640 BILLION IN NEW LOANS TO CONTAIN THE SPREADING GOVERNMENT DEBT CRISIS

On March 8 2010 just before the cycle opposition comes into orb the EU says it plans to create a European Monetary Fund to better co-ordinate the economies of the 16 countries that use the euro – and prevent financial debacles such as the Greek debt crisis from undermining the credibility of Europe’s single currency. On May 9 EU leaders agree to provide almost $640 billion in new loans to contain the spreading government debt crisis and keep it from tearing the euro currency apart. An IMF contribution would raise the amount to over $900 million. (23 May 2010 is the 1^st Exact Hit)

On May 25 US and Chinese officials sign accords on trade finance, China’s gas reserves and credit arrangements, but give no indication of any progress on issues involving the value of China’s currency. On June 1 the Bank of Canada raises its key interest rate to 0.5 percent from 0.25 percent, making Canada the first of the G7 major industrialized countries to start hiking interest rates after the global financial crisis.

CONGRESS AGREES A SWEEPING OVERHAUL OF US BANKING RULES

On June 19 China’s central bank says it will gradually make the yuan’s exchange rate more flexible keeping the yuan’s exchange rate at a basically stable level. On June 25 the US Congress reaches agreement on a sweeping overhaul of rules governing the US banking system. In June China begins allowing most of the country to pay for imports in yuan and for Chinese companies to sell exports for currency. On July 21 President Obama signs in the financial overhaul legislation. (16 Aug 2010 is the 2^nd Exact hit)

NEW BASEL 3 RULES ON BANK LIQUIDITY & CAPITAL

On Sept 3 the Basel Committee of international bank regulators agrees on a new set of rules, known as ‘Basel 3’, with specific requirements for banks liquidity and capital. On Sept 28 Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega warns that the world is in the grip of a ‘currency war’, with leading nations using devaluation to solve economic problems. On Oct 9 the IMF finishes two days of talks in Washington DC. but global leaders fail to resolve deep differences that threaten that full-blown currency war. On Oct 19 China’s central bank surprises with its first increase of interest rates in nearly three years. The impact is felt by markets across the board. Oil and gold prices tumble, stocks turn negative in Europe and the dollar jumps.

US GOVERNMENT DEBT REACHES ALL TIME HIGH OF $14 TRILLION

On Nov 9 China signals its intention to drain excess cash from its financial system by altering rates and changing money inflow rules. On Dec 6 European finance ministers wrestle over whether to commit more money to help stabilize the euro. On Jan 1 2011 Estonia becomes the first former Soviet republic to join the euro. On Jan 15 the US passes a dubious milestone – Government debt reaches an all-time high of more than $14 trillion, close to its legal debt limit. On Feb 8 China raises interest rates for the second time to check stubbornly high inflation. On March 11 Euro-zone leaders begin a 2-day summit to launch the ‘pact for the euro’ – a pledge to align members’ economic policies and enhance their competitiveness. (23 March 2011 is the 3^rd Exact hit)

7 EUROZONE COUNTRIES AGREE TO PAY GREECE $11 BILLION IN BAILOUT LOANS

On April 1 debt-stressed Portugal gets some respite from its financial troubles when it manages to borrow Euro 1.645 billion ($2.3 billion) in a bond auction. On May 20 the IMF approves providing Portugal with $36.8 billion as part of the rescue package. On July 21 Eurozone leaders agree to give Greece Euro 109 billion ($156 billion) in new financing in a complex package that includes new loans, buybacks of Greek debt, and credit guarantees. On Oct 6 the UK follows the US into a second round of quantitative easing as a defence against the debt crisis. On Oct 21 finance ministers from 17 eurozone countries agree to pay Greece $11 billion in its next batch of bailout loans to avoid a potentially disastrous default. On Dec 31 Basel 2.5, the new set of international rules charging banks higher capital for risks in their trading books, takes effect.

On Feb 21 2012 Greece reaches an agreement on $172 billion in loans through to 2014 from the EU governments and the IMF and the Greek parliament approves the bond swap that will wipe a massive €107 billion ($142 billion) off the country’s privately-held debt. On March 9 the Jupiter/Saturn opposition goes out of orb.