WORLDWIDE FATALITIES
Does the rise and fall in global deaths from terrorism show a synchronistic (surge at key cycle stages) or truly cyclical (rise to peak at opposition then decline) correlation with the Saturn/Pluto cycle ?
First, does this period show a change in the number of deaths from terrorist violence in the rest of the world outside the countries we have covered ? Unfortunately while we can split off Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan from the world total in recent years and estimate the rise and fall in terrorist deaths there, it is not comparatively possible to do this with the rest of the world. We have to look at the overall picture covering all 72 countries where terrorism has been noted as taking place. Focusing on these key countries and based on the US CounterTerrorism Centre’s (CTC) Worldwide Incidents Tracking system (WITS) almost 13,200 deaths from terrorism occurred in 2010. More than 75% of these took place in South Asia and the Near East. 97% took place in 15 countries which logged more than 50 deaths from terrorism. Besides the four countries we have been dealing with they are Somalia, India, DR Congo, Russia, Thailand, Colombia, Yemen, Philipiines, Sudan, Iran, Nigeria and Uganda.
GLOBAL TERRORIST DEATHS DECLINE AT CYCLE IN SQUARE
CTC states that although the number of attacks worldwide rose in 2010 by almost 5 percent over the previous year, the number of deaths declined for a third consecutive year, dropping 12 percent from 2009. Worldwide, excluding Iraq, there were 9,822 deaths in 2010, down from 11,656 in 2009 and 10,695 in 2008 and close to the 2007 figure of 9,107. This decline could just possibly be said to correlate with the cycle in square. Unfortunately CTC discontinued WITS in April 2012.
MAJOR TERRORIST INCIDENTS
One final assessment of the degree of correlation of fundamentalist terrorism with this cycle is to examine the frequency and scale of major terrorist bombings only. Throughout this website we have taken 50 deaths as a threshold at which major terrorist incidents start. However to shorten the long list this would produce we have raised that threshold to 100 deaths.
THE BOMBINGS WITH GREATEST FATALITIES ARE OFTEN CO-ORDINATED ATTACKS
We will exclude in transit airplane and long distance train bombings where it is the crash itself that produces most of the fatalities – inevitably these tend to have a very high death count. The list also excludes all actions where the military (official or rebel) or airforce play a central role and only covers bombings not shootings (unless an unquantified mix). Attacks by drug cartels are ignored. The following Table lists the year and month, the country, the number killed (excludes suicide bombers themselves but not other attackers) and where relevant the city or target group. The years where one of the cycle’s four stages is in orb are in RED
1983 October Lebanon 299
1984 NONE
1985 May Sri Lanka 146
1985 November Colombia 100
1986 NONE
1987 April Sri Lanka 110
1990 August Sri Lanka 147
1991 NONE
1992 NONE
1993 March India 257 (Mumbai)
1995 April USA 168 (Oklahoma)
1995 June Russia 172 (Stavropol)
1998 January Algeria 260* (Sidi Hamed)
1998 August Tanzania/Kenya 223 (US Embassies)
1999 September Russia 293 (Apartment bombs)**
2000 NONE
2001 August Angola 252 (derailed train attack)
2001 September USA 2,973 (9/11 plane attacks
2002 May Colombia 117
2002 October Indonesia 202 (Bali club bombings)
2002 October Russia 160 (Moscow Theatre)
2004 February Iraq 117 (Mosul)
2004 February Singapore 116 (SuperFerry)
2004 March Iraq 106 (Karbala Shia shrine)
2004 March Spain 191 (Madrid)
2004 September Russia 334 (Beslan school)
2006 July India 209 (Trains in Mumbai)
2006 November Iraq 215 (Sadr City)
2007 January Iraq 131 (Baghdad Shia shrine
2007 February Iraq 135 (Baghdad Shia zone)
2007 March Iraq 114 (Hilla Shiite pilgrims)
2007 March Iraq 152 (Tal Afar Shia zone)
2007 April Iraq 200 (Baghdad Shia zone)
2007 August Iraq 796 (Yazidi communities)
2007 October Pakistan 136 (Bhutto attack)
2008 October Pakistan 113 (Orakzai)
2008 November India 173 (Mumbai)
2009 August Iraq 101 (Baghdad Ministries)
2009 October Iraq 155 (Baghdad Green Zone)
2009 October Pakistan 117 (Peshawar)
2009 December Iraq 127 (Baghdad Ministries)
2010 January Pakistan 105 (Lakki Marwat)
2010 July Pakistan 105 (Mohmand Agency)
2012 January Nigeria 185 (Kano by Boko Haram
2012 May Yemen 120 (Sanaa by al-Qaeda
2012 July Iraq 116 (various cities)
2012 August Iraq 128 (various cities)
2012 September Iraq 108 (various cities)
2013 January Pakistan 126 (Quetta)
* mid pont of AFP and Algerian Press figures
+ Source Iraqi Red Crescent
** Some analysts have suggested these were not terrorist attacks
The above yearly major incident figures show the following very qualified correlations:
INCONCLUSIVE
There is of course no exact correlation but there is an approximate pattern showing. At the 1983 conjunction there is an unprecedented fatality count for 2 Lebanon terrorist attacks – 241 American servicemen and 58 French troops. Then at the 1993 cycle Out square 257 are killed in Mumbai – the largest fatality count since the Lebanon bombings. 1998 and 1999 both have high figures** but at the 2001-2 cycle opposition, in addition to the huge 9/11 figures, 2002 shows the next highest year total of 479. The 2004 total of 864 and the Yazidi massacres of 2007 puts this pattern out of kilter. Yet most importantly at the time of writing after 2007 there are no figures above 185.
For more detailed analysis of the most recent Terrorism cycle please visit: http://cyclesofhistory.com/violenttransformation-1982-2020/